Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
209 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances traveling along a slow moving front will provide
the focus for thunderstorms today through Tuesday. Hot
temperatures are expected Wednesday when the front is forecast
to lift north of the area. The likelihood for thunderstorms will
return Thursday as the front sags south toward the Ohio River.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MCV moving into northwest Ohio will continue east. Already
starting to see new convection develop out ahead of this
feature. These storms will push through central Ohio this
afternoon. Additional activity diving southeast across western
Indiana should weaken as it approaches the forecast area. While
there is still potential for strong to severe storms and locally
heavy rain, that threat seems to be lower than earlier
anticipated. Minor adjustment to highs were made based on
trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
With the frontal boundary remaining in Ohio, the threat for
thunderstorms will persist tonight through Tuesday. Timing and
location of mesoscale elements is uncertain, but it appears
that a round of thunderstorms triggered by a short wave rippling
along the front will affect mainly northern locations tonight.
Following a diurnal lull Tuesday morning, additional
thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon as the front sags
farther south to Central Ohio.

Expect temperatures to stay near normal, with highs in the mid
and upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A surface front is expected to lift north Wednesday with pops
decreasing from south to north. In the warm sector, Wednesday looks
to be the warmest day of the week with highs from the upper 80s
north to the lower 90s south.

Surface wave to track through the Great Lakes with associated cold
front dropping south into the Ohio Valley Thursday night/early
Friday. This front will increase chances for thunderstorms and
therefore have continued high chance pops Thursday. On the warm side
of the system, expect high mainly in the mid and upper 80s Thursday.

In the wake of the front surface high pressure to build southeast
into the region later Friday into Saturday. Expect dry conditions
with cooler temperatures. Highs Friday and Saturday are forecast in
the lower and middle 80s.

In the northwest flow the model solutions are showing a secondary
front which drops southeast through the Ohio Valley. Considerable
timing differences exist regarding this feature. Due to uncertainty
and lack of moisture will limit any mention of precipitation to
slight chance pops Saturday night into early Sunday. Highs on Sunday
look to continue close to normal, ranging from the lower 80s north
and mid 80s south. Surface high pressure to provide dry weather and
cooler temperatures with highs on Monday ranging from near 80 north
to the lower 80s south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Developing thunderstorms may impact the Columbus TAFs early in
the period. Otherwise, the probability of any terminals being
impacted by showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the
daytime period is low. So VFR will prevail although south
southwest winds will remain gusty until around 00Z.

Appears that additional showers and thunderstorms will form
north of the region and sag south overnight. Due to timing
uncertainties, have used a broad range of VCSH/VCTS to indicate
the period of greatest potential. South winds will be persistent
through the night.

There is some potential for MVFR ceilings to develop and impact
locations from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK late in the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday and evening and then
again Thursday and Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-110930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to move across the
region today. Some of these storms could produce damaging straight
line winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall may also occur which could
lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday which
may result in heat indices rising into the mid to upper 90s both
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>072-077>082-088-110930-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms developing today will result in heavy downpours that
may cause localized flooding. In addition, some thunderstorms may
produce isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday which
may result in heat indices rising into the mid to upper 90s both
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

OHZ026-101700-
Hardin OH-
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HARDIN COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM
EDT...

At 1228 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Alger,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Kenton, Ada, Forest, Dunkirk, Alger, Blanchard, Roundhead, Mount
Victory, Mcguffey, Patterson, Dola, Grant, Silver Creek, Jumbo,
Huntersville, Pfeiffer, Walton, Hepburn, Mentzer and State Route 195
at State Route 235.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4082 8350 4070 8350 4070 8344 4069 8344
      4069 8342 4052 8342 4054 8388 4080 8388
      4082 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 240DEG 49KT 4067 8379

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1237 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

OHZ043-044-101715-
Logan OH-Shelby OH-
1237 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SHELBY AND LOGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1237 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Jackson
Center, moving northeast at 45 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 30 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Bellefontaine, Jackson Center, Russells Point, De Graff,
Lakeview, Belle Center, West Mansfield, Chippewa Park, Northwood,
Quincy, Rushsylvania, Huntsville, Port Jefferson, Ridgeway,
Logansville, New Jerusalem, Plattsville, Mcmorran and Maplewood.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 96 and 99.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4051 8353 4041 8353 4027 8396 4027 8401
      4025 8402 4022 8410 4038 8418 4053 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 240DEG 37KT 4035 8403

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1245 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

OHZ046-055-056-101730-
Licking OH-Delaware OH-Franklin OH-
1245 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND NORTHWESTERN LICKING COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM
EDT...

At 1245 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Worthington, moving northeast at 45 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Penny size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Dublin, Westerville, Upper Arlington, Gahanna, Worthington,
Johnstown, Sunbury, Minerva Park, Ohio State University, Polaris,
Easton, New Albany, Grandview Heights, Galena, Riverlea, Hartford,
Fredonia, US Route 62 at State Route 661 and Clintonville.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 111 and 127.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4015 8245 3998 8303 4010 8313 4032 8275
      4028 8275 4027 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 240DEG 37KT 4007 8303

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
119 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

OHZ056-101800-
Licking OH-
119 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LICKING COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM EDT...

At 119 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Centerburg to Thornport, moving northeast at 40
mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Heath, Granville, Buckeye Lake, Hebron, Utica, Hanover,
Harbor Hills, Granville South, Marne, Thornport, Hartford, St.
Louisville, Gratiot, Fredonia, Toboso, US Route 62 at State Route
661, Brownsville, Purity and Interstate 70 at State Route 13.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 130 and 142, and near
mile marker 144.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3995 8220 3995 8223 3991 8223 3993 8246
      4028 8275 4027 8248 4025 8248 4024 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 241DEG 34KT 4028 8272 3992 8242

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

OHZ044>046-052-054-101845-
Champaign OH-Delaware OH-Logan OH-Madison OH-Union OH-
201 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHAMPAIGN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE...NORTH CENTRAL MADISON AND UNION COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 200 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Mechanicsburg, moving northeast at 55 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 30 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Delaware, Marysville, Urbana, Plain City, Richwood, Mechanicsburg,
North Lewisburg, Ashley, New California, Radnor, Milford Center,
Ostrander, Woodstock, Magnetic Springs, Unionville Center, Mutual,
Cable, Raymond, Delaware State Park and Broadway.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 132 and 138.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4044 8325 4043 8302 4042 8301 4041 8293
      4036 8293 4035 8279 4001 8351 4002 8373
      4015 8379 4048 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 241DEG 49KT 4005 8362

Novak