Areal Flood Warning 45, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Clusters of strong-severe storms should develop this
afternoon/evening near a remnant outflow boundary near/south of the
I-70 corridor, from northeast Kansas into central Missouri, in an
uncapped, strongly unstable airmass. Other, more isolated storms
or perhaps small clusters are expected to develop along a weakened
cold front in the Flint Hills and south-central Kansas, perhaps
aided by a weak 700 mb thermal trough moving eastward over Kansas.
Relatively higher probabilities for storms in the forecast area
will exist in far southeast Kansas through tonight, given some
southward propagation/development of any clusters in western
Missouri and far eastern Kansas.

The front is progged to lift northward into northern Kansas by
midday Thursday, with a possible triple point in northwest Kansas.
Rich, Gulf moisture will characterize the warm sector with extreme
diurnal instability (MLCAPES 3500-5500 j/kg), and west-northwest
flow aloft providing very favorable directional shear for organized
severe storms. The models have shown a fairly consistent signal for
moisture convergence on the nose of a 35-40 knot 850 mb jet, along
with 700 mb warm air advection in the vicinity of the front/triple
point during the afternoon/evening hours with weakening convective
inhibition. A few supercell-type storms may initiate near the
referenced triple point/front early to mid afternoon. The initial
storms would be capable of isolated large to potentially very
large hail occurrences, with a likely transition into a severe
MCS cluster, with a southeastward propagation along the 700 mb
baroclinic zone in the northwest flow aloft. Large downdraft CAPE
will favor cold pool development and potential acceleration of
this MCS cluster during the pm/eve hours, with the main threat
becoming damaging winds- with a few reports of high-end wind
damage plausible. Consensus of short range guidance would place
highest storm chances from central and south-central Kansas into
the Flint Hills, although an adjustment in the exact path is
certainly possible in later model runs given the mesoscale
characteristics. Peak heat indices of 100-104 degrees are
indicated during the afternoon across much of the area.

Not much change is expected in the pattern Friday into the daytime
hours Saturday, with above normal temperatures and peak heat indices
of 100-104. A more substantial cold front is still progged to move
southward through Kansas Saturday night resulting in a chance of
thunderstorms, with higher probabilities slated in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Cooler/drier air is progged to infiltrate the region behind the
front Sunday into Monday. For Tuesday-Wednesday, mean upper level
troughing is progged to continue across the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley, with an upper high over the southwestern states. Weak-
moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will be in place across
the central Plains, with warming temperatures and returning Gulf
moisture. Chances for storms could return by mid week, along with
temperatures warming slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

A few storms will be possible mainly along and east of the Kansas
turnpike into the late evening hours. Otherwise light winds will
be in store overnight with light southeast winds during the day
on Thursday. Thunderstorms could develop over western Kansas
early Thursday afternoon and spread eastward into central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  97  70  96 /  20  40  50  10
Hutchinson      68  97  69  96 /  10  50  40  10
Newton          70  96  69  94 /  20  40  50  10
ElDorado        71  94  69  92 /  30  30  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  96  71  95 /  30  20  50  10
Russell         65  96  66  96 /   0  50  20  20
Great Bend      65  97  67  97 /   0  50  10  10
Salina          68  97  69  97 /  10  40  40  20
McPherson       68  96  68  96 /  10  50  40  10
Coffeyville     72  93  71  92 /  40  20  50  10
Chanute         71  93  71  91 /  40  20  50  20
Iola            70  93  71  91 /  40  20  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    72  93  71  92 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152345-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible into the late
evening hours, along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. The main
threats from any storms that develop, will be hail up to quarter
size and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few severe storms are expected to develop over north central
Kansas Thursday afternoon, with the storms possibly merging into a
southeastward-moving severe storm cluster during the late afternoon
and evening hours. The initial storms will be capable of isolated
occurrences of large to very large hail, with a transition to
damaging winds as the storms merge into a cluster or two.

Storm chances will remain in the forecast for Friday night through
Saturday night with at least some strong storms possible.

Heat index values of 100 to 104 degrees are expected for Thursday
through Saturday area wide, during the afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
826 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             ROSE HILL               37.57N 97.13W
06/14/2017  E0.88 INCH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
840 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             4 SW DOUGLASS           37.48N 97.06W
06/14/2017  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
843 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

KSZ069-150245-
Butler KS-
843 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 945 PM CDT

* At 840 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Potwin, or near Towanda...
  moving northeast at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Towanda, Benton, Potwin, El Dorado Lake and El Dorado
  State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3776 9713 3791 9713 3801 9683 3783 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 241DEG 23KT 3787 9703

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
909 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

KSZ069-093-150315-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-
909 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1015 PM CDT

* At 906 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles east of Douglass...moving
  east at 45 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Douglass, Atlanta, Latham and Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 9704 3757 9702 3760 9652 3731 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 276DEG 40KT 3749 9691

KETCHAM

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