Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Wichita, KS

410 
WGUS73 KICT 151007
FFSICT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
507 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

KSC015-173-151013-
/O.CAN.KICT.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170615T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sedgwick KS-Butler KS-
507 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEDGWICK AND SOUTHWESTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Since no further flooding has been reported in southeast Sedgwick or 
southwest Butler counties the flash flood warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3765 9704 3751 9703 3752 9735 3764 9735

$$

ES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Clusters of strong-severe storms should develop this
afternoon/evening near a remnant outflow boundary near/south of the
I-70 corridor, from northeast Kansas into central Missouri, in an
uncapped, strongly unstable airmass. Other, more isolated storms
or perhaps small clusters are expected to develop along a weakened
cold front in the Flint Hills and south-central Kansas, perhaps
aided by a weak 700 mb thermal trough moving eastward over Kansas.
Relatively higher probabilities for storms in the forecast area
will exist in far southeast Kansas through tonight, given some
southward propagation/development of any clusters in western
Missouri and far eastern Kansas.

The front is progged to lift northward into northern Kansas by
midday Thursday, with a possible triple point in northwest Kansas.
Rich, Gulf moisture will characterize the warm sector with extreme
diurnal instability (MLCAPES 3500-5500 j/kg), and west-northwest
flow aloft providing very favorable directional shear for organized
severe storms. The models have shown a fairly consistent signal for
moisture convergence on the nose of a 35-40 knot 850 mb jet, along
with 700 mb warm air advection in the vicinity of the front/triple
point during the afternoon/evening hours with weakening convective
inhibition. A few supercell-type storms may initiate near the
referenced triple point/front early to mid afternoon. The initial
storms would be capable of isolated large to potentially very
large hail occurrences, with a likely transition into a severe
MCS cluster, with a southeastward propagation along the 700 mb
baroclinic zone in the northwest flow aloft. Large downdraft CAPE
will favor cold pool development and potential acceleration of
this MCS cluster during the pm/eve hours, with the main threat
becoming damaging winds- with a few reports of high-end wind
damage plausible. Consensus of short range guidance would place
highest storm chances from central and south-central Kansas into
the Flint Hills, although an adjustment in the exact path is
certainly possible in later model runs given the mesoscale
characteristics. Peak heat indices of 100-104 degrees are
indicated during the afternoon across much of the area.

Not much change is expected in the pattern Friday into the daytime
hours Saturday, with above normal temperatures and peak heat indices
of 100-104. A more substantial cold front is still progged to move
southward through Kansas Saturday night resulting in a chance of
thunderstorms, with higher probabilities slated in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Cooler/drier air is progged to infiltrate the region behind the
front Sunday into Monday. For Tuesday-Wednesday, mean upper level
troughing is progged to continue across the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley, with an upper high over the southwestern states. Weak-
moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft will be in place across
the central Plains, with warming temperatures and returning Gulf
moisture. Chances for storms could return by mid week, along with
temperatures warming slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

A few storms will be possible mainly along and east of the Kansas
turnpike into the late evening hours. Otherwise light winds will
be in store overnight with light southeast winds during the day
on Thursday. Thunderstorms could develop over western Kansas
early Thursday afternoon and spread eastward into central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  97  70  96 /  20  40  50  10
Hutchinson      68  97  69  96 /  10  50  40  10
Newton          70  96  69  94 /  20  40  50  10
ElDorado        71  94  69  92 /  30  30  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  96  71  95 /  30  20  50  10
Russell         65  96  66  96 /   0  50  20  20
Great Bend      65  97  67  97 /   0  50  10  10
Salina          68  97  69  97 /  10  40  40  20
McPherson       68  96  68  96 /  10  50  40  10
Coffeyville     72  93  71  92 /  40  20  50  10
Chanute         71  93  71  91 /  40  20  50  20
Iola            70  93  71  91 /  40  20  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    72  93  71  92 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152345-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe storms will be possible into the late
evening hours, along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. The main
threats from any storms that develop, will be hail up to quarter
size and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few severe storms are expected to develop over north central
Kansas Thursday afternoon, with the storms possibly merging into a
southeastward-moving severe storm cluster during the late afternoon
and evening hours. The initial storms will be capable of isolated
occurrences of large to very large hail, with a transition to
damaging winds as the storms merge into a cluster or two.

Storm chances will remain in the forecast for Friday night through
Saturday night with at least some strong storms possible.

Heat index values of 100 to 104 degrees are expected for Thursday
through Saturday area wide, during the afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1025 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     HAIL             DERBY                   37.55N 97.26W
06/14/2017  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 63RD STREET SOUTH AND ROCK
            ROAD.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     HAIL             DERBY                   37.55N 97.26W
06/14/2017  M1.25 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA TWITTER OF HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             ROSE HILL               37.57N 97.13W
06/14/2017  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1044 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             OAKLAWN                 37.61N 97.30W
06/14/2017  E1.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT 47TH STREET SOUTH AND CLIFTON.
            THERE IS ALSO MINOR STREET FLOODING.

1040 PM     FLOOD            OAKLAWN                 37.61N 97.30W
06/14/2017                   SEDGWICK           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            MINOR STREET FLOODING REPORTED WITH 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
            IN THIRTY MINUTES.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1055 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DOUGLASS                37.52N 97.01W
06/14/2017  M2.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA TWITTER AND KAKE OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN
            A FEW HOURS. TIME IS BASED ON REPORT.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1058 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ROSE HILL               37.57N 97.13W
06/14/2017  M1.57 INCH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 1.57 INCHES OF RAIN IN A FEW
            HOURS.

&&

VJP