River Flood Warning 33, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
407 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Intense low pressure will track northward bringing a period of
heavy rain and strong winds to much of New England. Coastal
areas will be hardest hit by the wind, while the mountains will
be hardest hit by the rain. As the low moves north, a cold front
will sweep westward across New England Monday morning, ushering
in colder, drier air on a stiff westerly wind. The westerly
winds will continue but gradually decrease in intensity through
Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the southwest. The next
frontal system will arrive late next week bringing another
chance of rain, but not as heavy this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast of high winds and heavy rainfall verifying nicely
at this time and will continue on track into this morning. All
headlines currently up will remain in tact through the early
morning.

As the main center of low pressure moves north through upstate
New York, the remains of Philippe is being ingested into the
strong south to southeast flow aloft and showing up nicely on
satellite imagery as its entering into the Gulf of Maine early
this morning. This will help mix down the winds from the low/mid
level jet aloft over coastal and eastern areas as well as
enhance rainfall rates. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
over southern and eastern areas of Maine due to this feature.
Currently very heavy rain is occurring in the orographically
induced areas of the mountains and foothills and some Flash
Flood Warnings are being issued in certain areas.

By mid morning a nice dry slot is depicted by models to move
through southern and eastern areas, bringing an end to the
heavy rain. This dry slot showing up nicely on composite radar
and Satellite imagery.  The flow will shift to westerly and
become gusty again by afternoon. As wind headlines get dropped
from the southeast flow this morning, some additional headline
may be needed as the winds shift to the west but will also be
very strong and gusty.

Total QPF looks to be in the 1.5 to 4 inch range but some
locally higher amounts in the higher terrain can't be ruled out.

Used a blend of models for max temps this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

A drier and cooler air mass spreads across the region for
tonight on the westerly flow as high pressure begins to build
east.

Upper level troughing will still be in control Tuesday night
with variable cloudiness across the region. High pressure builds
in at the surface allowing for more drying and cooler but
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term forecast mostly kept as is to focus on current storm
system.

High pressure moves east on Wednesday with a southerly flow
returning. This will bring gradually more warmth and moisture
into the region. Models are slowly coming into better agreement
on timing and track of the next wave which will begin affecting
us later in the week. It is looking more and more like this low
will track fairly well to the north of our area, keeping us out
of the heavier precipitation, with the best shot of rain being
on Friday with the cold front moves through. However, there
will be increasing cloud cover as the southeast flow off the
water brings in some low level clouds and perhaps some drizzle
on Thursday. The GFS has a more defined warm front with warm
advection precipitation on Thursday, but it appears to be the
outlier at this point, with other models keeping these dynamics
further to the north.

The front moves through on Friday with colder air moving in for
the weekend. Cold high pressure moves in Saturday night. GFS
brings another weak wave through the area Saturday night with a
chance of rain (and snow to the north). However, CMC and ECMWF
both keep the high over Maine through Sunday morning. Given the
consistency with these models, have discounted the GFS just a
bit and favored the forecast towards the ECMWF/CMC. This would
mean Sunday morning could be a good radiational cooling morning
with a widespread freeze. The cold won't last too long, though,
as we get back into the southwest flow again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...MVFR/IFR conditions will continue into the morning.
Improving conditions to VFR will occur this afternoon. The very
strong southeast gusts early this morning will shift to west
across all areas by mid morning but remain gusty through the
afternoon and into the evening.

Long Term...Westerly winds remain fairly strong on Tuesday but
will finally calm down Tuesday night as high pressure moves
through. A return southerly flow begins on Wednesday, with lower
ceilings possibly moving in off the Gulf of Maine as early as
Wednesday night or Thursday. Another cold front moves through
from the northwest on Friday, pushing out the low level moisture
and returning VFR conditions to the region after a brief shot of
rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Will keep all current headlines into the morning.
Hurricane force gusts likely early this morning over the outer
waters with storm force winds in the bays. Given the strength
of the winds should see seas rise to 18-25 ft this morning.
Winds will eventually diminish to gales tonight.

Long Term...Westerly winds on Tuesday will gust into the 30 to
35 KT range before diminishing Tuesday night with high pressure
moving by. A southerly flow begins again by Thursday, possibly
reaching advisory levels before the next cold front arrives on
Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flash Flooding:
A very quick hitting storm with deep tropical moisture
connection means that flash flooding is possible across the
area. Will keep all Flash Flood watches in place. The heaviest
QPF will be confined to the mountains and foothills of Western
Maine and New Hampshire. Most of the QPF /around 2-4 inches/
falls in less than 12 hours which should easily exceed the flash
flood guidance across portions of the region. A flash flood
watch remains in effect through the morning.

Rivers: Many rivers are already running a bit high from our last
batch of rain and that combined with now fairly saturated soil
will result in river flooding. The area of greatest QPF is in
the White mountains where some of the fastest reacting rivers
are located. With confidence high for widespread 2-3" amounts
through this area, and the potential for higher amounts river
flood warnings have already been issued for the Pemigewasset
river at Woodstock, the Saco at Conway, and the Swift at
Roxbury. These rivers are expected to reach flood stage by
morning. Anyone with interests along these rivers should take
action tonight before nightfall.

Elsewhere in the Whites, there are several points which may
reach flood stage, but with less confidence in reaching flood
and a later crest time have opted to hold off on warnings at
this point. These points include the Ammonoosuc river at
Bethlehem, the Baker at Rumney, and the Pemi at Plymouth.

Extending into Maine widespread 2-3" amounts are anticipated
into the upper Kennebec basin, including the Sandy and
Carrabassett rivers. These rivers take longer to react and thus
will hold off on flood warnings for now. The mainstem Kennebec
is also heavily regulated and may be able to hold off folding.
Interests along the Kennebec should monitor this storm closely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Despite a low tide of around 8.5 ft
at Portland, storm surge of 2-2.5 feet is expected, which will
remain below coastal flood levels. However, with high waves and
the surge some splash over and minor beach erosion will be
possible at the time of high tide around 745 AM this morning.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Wind Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for MEZ018>028.
     Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
     Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
NH...High Wind Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for NHZ004>015.
     Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NHZ001>015.
     High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NHZ001>003.
MARINE...Storm Warning until noon EDT today for ANZ151-153.
     Hurricane Force Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM...Marine
SHORT TERM...Hanes
LONG TERM...Legro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

MEZ018>028-NHZ004>015-310745-
Interior York-Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-
Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-
Knox-Coastal Waldo-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-
Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-
Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire, northern New
Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ007>009-012>014-310745-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine, west
central Maine and western Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NHZ001>003-310745-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ150-152-154-310745-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Hurricane Force Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ151-153-310745-
Penobscot Bay-Casco Bay-
331 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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