Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Hurricane Nate will move northward across eastern
Tennessee and Kentucky tonight, and then quickly off to the
northeastern U.S. through Monday.  Moisture will linger over the
southeast in the wake of Nate through most of the week, and possibly
into the weekend, with much above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday: Nate has been downgraded to a tropical
depression as it zips NE ACRS AL. A couple of leading rain bands
well east of the center are working into the CWFA. The HRRR is
forecasting some discrete elements within the band as it tracks east
across Upstate and western NC. And this makes sense, as the latest
SPC mesoanalysis page shows 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. So with the
better shear starting to work into the more unstable air, we can
expect some tstms with rotating updrafts. An isolated tornado threat
will probably peak from about 3 PM to 10 PM today. This will
continue to be mentioned in the HWO. SPC still has a marginal risk
for most of the area.

Heading into tonight, the bigger issue will become flash flooding,
as the center of Nate tracks across central TN/KY and brings more
widespread tropical rain across the NC mountains. The current
forecast is on the higher end of guidance, and I don't see a reason
to make major changes, so still expect 4-6" of rainfall over the
next 24 hours along the blue ridge. The highest amounts will be in
the south-facing upslope areas. These totals should result in river
flooding along the French Broad, among others. The Flash Flood Watch
looks well placed and no changes needed. Winds will also be a
concern, but mainly this evening in the western NC mountains. Wind
gusts of 40-60 mph expected above 3500 ft, with 850 mb jet of 40-50
knots pushing in from the west. We will probably struggle to reach
wind advisory criteria most of the advisory area, but with gusty
winds and heavy rain, expect scattered trees down and power outages,
so will leave NPW as is. Temps will be about 20 degrees above normal
under very humid conditions.

On Monday, the remnants of Nate will accelerate further as it tracks
across the upper Ohio Valley and Upstate NY. The system will leave a
trailing band of moisture atop the CWFA with PWATS still over 2"
across the Piedmont. Flow turns out of the SW, so we lose most of
the upslope, but there will be some moisture convergence across the
Piedmont with SBCAPE up over 1000 J/kg to support scattered showers
and tstms. Shear weakens quickly, and forcing should be lacking
aloft behind Nate. So expect severe threat to be low, but with high
PWATS, could see some heavy downpours. Should see some breaks in the
clouds, allowing highs to be lower 80s with humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: An amplified upper pattern will be in place
Monday night in the wake of Nate's departure, with strengthening
high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a deep but progressive
trough/closed low over the southern plains. The plains system will
gradually fill and lift northeast toward the Great Lakes Tuesday
through Wednesday. The southeast ridge will flatten somewhat but
remain strong - with generally 592 dm 500 mb heights persisting over
much of the area. The persistent deep layer southwesterly flow over
the region will keep abundant moisture in place.  A surface warm
front drifting northward across the area on Tuesday will provide
some focus for additional forcing to keep PoP in the high chance to
likely range, with a diurnal Tuesday afternoon maximum. In spite of
the modest lapse rates aloft, SBCAPE values should run 1500 to 2000
J/kg given the high dewpoints Tuesday afternoon, and strong
thunderstorms are quite possible.

The soupy, warm sector airmass will persist over the southeast on
Wednesday and continue the above climo PoPs for showers and
scattered thunderstorms.  Min temps will remain some 10 to 20
degrees above climo, with maxes 5 to 10 above climo, through the
short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: The northern tier wave will cross New
England Wednesday night through Thursday, with the strong southern
ridge becoming dominant over the southeast. At lower levels a weak
cold front will lay over into the region from the northwest and
dissipate, but likely provide a continued weak focus for convection.

Heights will then rise strongly over the southern tier of the U.S.,
including our forecast area, Friday through Sunday, with 594 dm 500
mb heights likely over the weekend. Moisture will continue under the
ridge, and low level flow becoming more southeast to east over time,
albeit light, will provide a measure of upslope forcing. Above climo
PoPs will continue, but instabilty will be more modest as dewpoints
fall a bit. Well above climo temps will continue throughout.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: CIGS have been improving as we mix a little
this AFTN across the Piedmont, but rainbands from remnants of Nate
will slowly track east across the region, likely lowering CIGS again
for this evening. There is some instability that may support TSRA,
but mostly just tropical downpours expected. SE winds will increase
and peak early evening with gusts in the 20-25 kt range. Then winds
veer to SW and decrease and lose gustiness by daybreak Monday.
Widespread RA/SHRA continues thru the night, especially in the
mountains and adjacent foothills. Then a lull in coverage Monday
morning, before an uptick again in the AFTN, as an unstable, humid
air mass remains in place.

Outlook: Moisture will persist over the area through Monday, with a
weak frontal zone likely to linger over the region into Tuesday.
Periodic restrictions and SHRA/TSRA likely will result.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     morning for GAZ010-017-018.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     morning for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-
     507-509.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ033-049-050-053-
     063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     High Wind Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for NCZ033-048>052-058-
     059-062.
SC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     morning for SCZ001>003.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ004>014-019-091945-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the piedmont
and foothills of western North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Tropical downpours associated with the remnants of Nate will move
northward across the area through tonight. The very heavy rainfall
may produce flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas. Isolated
flash flooding of streams and creeks cannot be ruled out, especially
where several bands of rainfall affect a certain location.

In addition, a few brief and weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-091945-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southwest mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-091945-
Rabun-Habersham-Buncombe-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-049-050-091945-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ018-091945-
Stephens-
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Stephens County in northeast
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, a few brief and weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out this
evening. Any thunderstorms will produce gusty winds as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
258 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

NCZ033-050-503>506-081945-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
258 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL...SOUTHERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marion, moving north at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Lake James State Park, Linville Falls, Lake James, B.R.
Parkway between Linville Falls and Grandfather, Nebo, Ingalls, North
Cove, Altamont and Ashford.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8179 3596 8181 3595 8180 3561 8191
      3563 8203 3602 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 187DEG 25KT 3567 8197

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SSE BALSAM            35.42N 83.08W
10/08/2017                   JACKSON            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON CABIN FLATS ROAD AS
            REPORTED BY BALSAM VFD.

&&

HARRYG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
305 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

SCZ007-008-013-081945-
Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
305 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG...
SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Union, or 9 miles west of Buffalo, moving north at 25
mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Spartanburg, Pacolet, Cowpens,
Pacolet Mills, Croft State Park, Cedar Springs, Boiling Springs SC,
Roebuck and Thicketty.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 8180 3463 8190 3504 8199 3503 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 178DEG 23KT 3467 8185

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
317 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

SCZ001-002-004-005-082000-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
317 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN PICKENS AND EASTERN
OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Seneca, moving north at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Seneca, Clemson, Six Mile, Salem, Lake Keowee, Jocassee Gorges, Lake
Jocassee, Devils Fork State Park, Keowee Toxaway State Park and Table
Rock State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Lake Keowee and Lake Jocassee are in the path of this storm. Cloud
to ground lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating
conditions. Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8300 3503 8299 3508 8278 3507 8278
      3507 8277 3505 8275 3505 8273 3462 8285
      3457 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 185DEG 34KT 3466 8292

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
346 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

NCZ068-508-SCZ007-008-082030-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
346 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Spartanburg, or near Cowpens, moving north at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Forest City, Boiling Springs NC,
Cowpens, Mayo, Chesnee, Mooresboro, Cowpens National Battlefield,
Lattimore, Cliffside and Henrietta.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 8176 3493 8186 3533 8187 3530 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 188DEG 26KT 3497 8180

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

SCZ007-012-019-082045-
Laurens SC-Greenwood SC-Spartanburg SC-
401 PM EDT SUN OCT 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAURENS AND CENTRAL
GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 401 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Greenwood, or near Lake Greenwood, moving north at
30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Greenwood, Clinton, Ninety Six, Cross Hill, Waterloo, Lake
Greenwood, Greenwood State Park, Coronaca and Mountville.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Lake Greenwood is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3421 8218 3468 8207 3462 8185 3459 8185
      3460 8184 3459 8184 3459 8182 3458 8181
      3458 8180 3457 8180 3457 8177 3415 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 195DEG 24KT 3426 8205

08