Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1252 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region early this morning, with a
brief round of snow showers possible along the Tennessee line
lasting into Thursday evening in its wake. Cool, dry high
pressure will spread back in to end the work week before another
warming trend commences over the weekend. Another frontal
system will approach the area by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is crossing upstate SC ahead
of a compact shortwave trough and cold front. Strong flow aloft
will maintain a small threat of damaging winds with the t-storms;
effective shear from SPC Mesoanalysis is 50-60 kt co-located
with the activity, and effective SRH is upwards of 300 m2/s2. We
are closely monitoring for any rotation or signs of descending
inflow. The good news is that storm motion is fast and the storms
should depart within a couple of hours if they do not run out of
instability first.

Frontal passage will occur before dawn, with a chance of snow in
the NC Mountains in the wake of the front. Snow accumulations
currently look to be rather light, except perhaps on the very
highest peaks, where amounts appear likely to reach two or three
inches. I adjusted amounts based on RAP QPF and a 12:1 SLR. I will
be re-evaluating the snowfall amounts for the full package issued
by 400 AM. Low temperatures will run well above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Wednesday...the end of the week looks like a
continuation of the roller coaster ride, in terms of temperatures.
The upper trof axis will move farther offshore Thursday night and an
upper ridge will move in from the west, which will support dry and
cool high pressure that moves overhead Friday morning. This should
spell low temps a bit below normal under clear sky and calm wind.
Friday should be fair with near normal high temps as the thickness
trof moves east across the region. The seasonal weather won't last.
By Saturday afternoon, with the high having moved off the southeast
coast and the upper ridge axis approaching from the west, warm
advection will bring high temps back to well above normal. The only
issue might be the arrival of a small shower chance over the west on
Saturday afternoon. The operational guidance keeps most of the
showers well to the west through sunset, which seems reasonable with
a lack of forcing and the position of the upper ridge axis still
over middle TN. Will allow for a slight chance mainly over the
Smokies, but that is about it.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday: the main problem with the medium range,
mainly Sunday into Monday, will be the fate of a surface boundary
that lurks to the west of the mtns. The operational GFS and ECMWF
suggest that it will remain stalled to the west of the mtns through
Monday as the flat upper ridge holds on the east coast, at least
thru Sunday. The front is expected to eventually push its way east
of the mtns, but not before all the meaningful forcing has lifted
out to the east and the moisture has become shallow. The implication
is that while we have a chance of precip over the mtns thru the
early part of the week, by the time the front finally crosses over,
it will pass with very little in the way of precip. The medium range
generally keeps this scenario and limits the chance of precip to the
mtns through that time frame. Eventually, a slight chance spills
eastward across the rest of the fcst area Monday afternoon and
lingers thru the middle part of the week, but that is as much a nod
to uncertainty as suggested by the GEFS than to any particular model
solution, noting the GFS and ECMWF provide for a dry period at some
point on Tuesday into Wednesday. The problem will the old front and
where it eventually stalls. This boundary will eventually lift back
north as a warm front, but not until Tuesday night. The effect on
temps is to keep them well above normal on Sunday, before they back
off to merely ten degrees above normal for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Deep convection passes thru the area early
this mrng, driven partly by a fast-moving shortwave trough. The
leading edge, within which a few TS are embedded, will have
already passed the Upstate sites and KAVL by 06z, but lingering
effects of the rain shield will last a couple more hours. At KCLT
the TS should move out by 07z. On the heels of the SHRA/TSRA and
the shortwave is a cold front that will clear out all remaining
low clouds before daybreak, except at KAVL where upslope-driven
clouds will linger into aftn. Winds will shift to NW with the
front and become gusty at all terminals, particularly at KAVL,
where gusts well above 30 kt are possible until this evening.

Outlook: Cooler and drier conditions return to end the work week,
but a warming trend will begin again Saturday. Another cold front
may sag into the area early next week.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       Med   69%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  84%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  88%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  85%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  91%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  87%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for NCZ033-048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-092145-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia...piedmont
North Carolina...western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop and move
across northeast Georgia, upstate South Carolina, and the Foothills
and western Piedmont of the Carolinas tonight and early Thursday
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A few of the
thunderstorms could become severe, with damaging winds and large hail
the main threats. The storms should move off to the east by daybreak
Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-092145-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through
this evening across eastern Tennessee ahead of a strong cold front.
Some of the thunderstorms will move across the mountains of North
Carolina through late tonight. A few of the storms could be severe,
with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. The storms
should move east of the Blue Ridge during the early morning hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...High winds possible. Winds will increase across the
mountains behind a cold front pushing through early Thursday morning.
A wind advisory is in effect. In addition...some light snow
accumulation will be possible across the high elevations near the
Tennessee border.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-058-059-062-063-092145-
Rabun-Habersham-Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through
this evening across eastern Tennessee and northwest Georgia ahead of
a strong cold front. The storms will move across the mountains of
North Carolina through late this evening, and then northeast Georgia
through late tonight. A few of the storms could be severe, with
damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. The storms
should move east of the Blue Ridge during the early morning hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1140 PM EST WED FEB 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
02/08/2017  E0.50 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PEA TO DIME-SIZED HAIL FALLING IN
            WAYNESVILLE.

&&

LVISIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1140 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

SCZ006-007-010-012-090530-
Laurens SC-Anderson SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
1140 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EST...

At 1140 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles south of Clemson
to 16 miles east of Anderson, and moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville, Greer,
Mauldin, Taylors, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn and Welcome.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8284 3465 8281 3475 8264 3482 8249
      3483 8248 3483 8249 3497 8224 3464 8190
      3447 8231 3448 8231 3448 8232 3447 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 255DEG 41KT 3461 8282 3450 8236

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1204 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

SCZ006-007-012-013-090600-
Laurens SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
1204 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE...SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL
100 AM EST...

At 1203 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles east of
Anderson to 9 miles west of Laurens, and moving east at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Clinton, Fountain Inn, Woodruff, Buffalo, Gray Court, Croft
State Park, Rose Hill State Park, Fork Shoals and Princeton.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail, and very heavy rainfall
rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 8221 3447 8231 3449 8232 3454 8239
      3455 8241 3459 8242 3462 8245 3491 8179
      3448 8149 3446 8152 3446 8156 3447 8155
      3449 8157 3453 8164 3446 8170 3444 8173
      3437 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0503Z 259DEG 42KT 3457 8242 3453 8218

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1220 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010-011-019-090600-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
1220 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...ELBERT...HART...SOUTHERN ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EST...

At 1219 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms with
torrential rainfall 5 miles east of Hartwell, moving east at 65 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Greenwood, Abbeville, Elberton, Hartwell, Homeland Park,
Belton, Honea Path, Royston and Ware Shoals.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8299 3410 8304 3411 8303 3415 8306
      3417 8310 3423 8308 3427 8311 3424 8317
      3425 8321 3443 8320 3456 8263 3448 8231
      3420 8205 3405 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 258DEG 55KT 3434 8283

VISIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1239 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-019-090615-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
1239 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT ELBERT...
SOUTHERN HART...SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN
GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EST...

At 1237 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms with
torrential rainfall 12 miles northeast of Elberton, or near
Lowndesville, moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Abbeville, Elberton, Hartwell, Honea Path, Ware Shoals,
Calhoun Falls, Ninety Six, Due West and Iva.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

This storm is showing signs of rotation, so be certain to monitor
local radio and tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8299 3410 8304 3411 8303 3415 8306
      3417 8310 3422 8308 3425 8310 3434 8310
      3449 8232 3447 8231 3438 8221 3416 8201
      3406 8277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0537Z 254DEG 54KT 3420 8269

VISIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
105 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

SCZ009-013-014-090630-
York SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
105 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CHESTER...
SOUTHERN YORK AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EST...

At 103 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms with
torrential rainfall 4 miles north of Chester, or near Lowrys, moving
east at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Union, York, Chester, Fort Mill, Tega Cay, Newport,
Lesslie, Great Falls and Monarch Mill.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 8155 3448 8155 3451 8161 3482 8170
      3488 8153 3487 8153 3488 8152 3487 8148
      3484 8146 3491 8147 3507 8106 3504 8104
      3509 8096 3469 8086 3464 8090 3455 8087
      3455 8097 3457 8142 3450 8142 3449 8148
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 261DEG 35KT 3477 8122

VISIN