Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region late this afternoon into tonight,
bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the area, with a brief
round of snow showers possible along the Tennessee line lasting into
Thursday evening. Cool, dry high pressure will spread back in to end
the work week before another warming trend commences over the
weekend. Another frontal system will approach the area by early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 PM EST Update...Pre/frontal -shra/tstms continue to move east
across the FA this evening. Not seeing much in the way of
organization due to limited MUCAPE...however a few of these storms
are producing rather gusty conds warranting a couple SPS issuances.
The downstream environ is less favorable for deepening or organizing
cells...so will anticipate general thunder activity through the next
few hrs.

400 PM EST Update...The going fcst is in good shape and made only
minor tweaks to the PoP/Sky grids to account for a bit later start
of convective initiation. Showers developing across NE GA have been
rather shallow and short lived in limited instability...but expect
an increase in activity and deeper conv this evening as forcing
increases within difl aloft and cooling mid levels.

At 230 PM EST Wednesday...An upper trough will amplify over the
Southern Appalachians tonight, progressing to the Eastern Seaboard
on Wednesday. A weak vort lobe will round the base of the trough
over the Southern Appalachians this evening, then a stronger vort
lobe will round the trough across GA and SC tonight.

At the surface, low level moisture will increase this afternoon and
evening in advance of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
At the same time, modest instability and robust wind shear may
support convection, that may persist until after midnight. At this
time it appears the main threat for tornadoes would be over the NC
and GA mountains, with wind and hail threats extending east across
the rest of the Western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia.

Frontal passage will occur before dawn, with a chance of snow in the
NC Mountains in the wake of the front. Snow accumulations would be
rather light, except perhaps on the very highest peaks, where
amounts could reach two or three inches. Low temperatures tonight
will run well above normal. High temperatures on Thursday will run
near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Wednesday...the end of the week looks like a
continuation of the roller coaster ride, in terms of temperatures.
The upper trof axis will move farther offshore Thursday night and an
upper ridge will move in from the west, which will support dry and
cool high pressure that moves overhead Friday morning. This should
spell low temps a bit below normal under clear sky and calm wind.
Friday should be fair with near normal high temps as the thickness
trof moves east across the region. The seasonal weather won't last.
By Saturday afternoon, with the high having moved off the southeast
coast and the upper ridge axis approaching from the west, warm
advection will bring high temps back to well above normal. The only
issue might be the arrival of a small shower chance over the west on
Saturday afternoon. The operational guidance keeps most of the
showers well to the west through sunset, which seems reasonable with
a lack of forcing and the position of the upper ridge axis still
over middle TN. Will allow for a slight chance mainly over the
Smokies, but that is about it.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday: the main problem with the medium range,
mainly Sunday into Monday, will be the fate of a surface boundary
that lurks to the west of the mtns. The operational GFS and ECMWF
suggest that it will remain stalled to the west of the mtns through
Monday as the flat upper ridge holds on the east coast, at least
thru Sunday. The front is expected to eventually push its way east
of the mtns, but not before all the meaningful forcing has lifted
out to the east and the moisture has become shallow. The implication
is that while we have a chance of precip over the mtns thru the
early part of the week, by the time the front finally crosses over,
it will pass with very little in the way of precip. The medium range
generally keeps this scenario and limits the chance of precip to the
mtns through that time frame. Eventually, a slight chance spills
eastward across the rest of the fcst area Monday afternoon and
lingers thru the middle part of the week, but that is as much a nod
to uncertainty as suggested by the GEFS than to any particular model
solution, noting the GFS and ECMWF provide for a dry period at some
point on Tuesday into Wednesday. The problem will the old front and
where it eventually stalls. This boundary will eventually lift back
north as a warm front, but not until Tuesday night. The effect on
temps is to keep them well above normal on Sunday, before they back
off to merely ten degrees above normal for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A couple rounds of -shra/tstms will affect
all TAF sites thru the first half of the period. The first batch of
activity will be associated with pre/frontal lift genrally btw TAF
time and 04Z or so. Cigs will drop into the MVFR...possibly IFR
range...and remain low before the later morning FROPA. Before then
there shud be lull in precipitation for a couple hrs before the
frontal activity crosses east of all sites by 09Z/10Z. Expect
MFVR/IFR cigs with these showers and storms with perhaps periods of
MFVR vbsy. Winds will veer nw/ly after the FROPA across all locales
and become gusty thru the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook: Cooler and drier conditions return to end the work week,
but a warming trend will begin again Saturday. Another cold front
may sag into the area early next week.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     Low   43%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   61%     High  85%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   72%     High  90%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     Low   46%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  94%     High  85%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  85%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      70 1937      4 1895     57 1937     -9 1895
   KCLT      74 2009     15 1895     60 1884      1 1895
   KGSP      75 1911     29 1995     54 1932     16 1951
                            1907

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for NCZ033-
     048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-092145-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia...piedmont
North Carolina...western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop and move
across northeast Georgia, upstate South Carolina, and the Foothills
and western Piedmont of the Carolinas tonight and early Thursday
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A few of the
thunderstorms could become severe, with damaging winds and large hail
the main threats. The storms should move off to the east by daybreak
Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-092145-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through
this evening across eastern Tennessee ahead of a strong cold front.
Some of the thunderstorms will move across the mountains of North
Carolina through late tonight. A few of the storms could be severe,
with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. The storms
should move east of the Blue Ridge during the early morning hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...High winds possible. Winds will increase across the
mountains behind a cold front pushing through early Thursday morning.
A wind advisory is in effect. In addition...some light snow
accumulation will be possible across the high elevations near the
Tennessee border.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-058-059-062-063-092145-
Rabun-Habersham-Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through
this evening across eastern Tennessee and northwest Georgia ahead of
a strong cold front. The storms will move across the mountains of
North Carolina through late this evening, and then northeast Georgia
through late tonight. A few of the storms could be severe, with
damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. The storms
should move east of the Blue Ridge during the early morning hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
623 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

NCZ064-065-090000-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-
623 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
TRANSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EST...

At 622 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms with
torrential rainfall 8 miles southwest of Brevard, or over Rosman,
moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Brevard, Flat Rock, Etowah, Mountain Home, Laurel
Park, Rosman, Dupont State Forest, Gorges State Park and Valley Hill.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas. Isolated flooding of low
lying areas may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 8234 3524 8236 3520 8235 3518 8237
      3521 8239 3517 8244 3517 8249 3516 8250
      3516 8255 3515 8257 3512 8266 3513 8268
      3510 8270 3509 8273 3507 8275 3507 8278
      3509 8279 3506 8287 3519 8294 3542 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 247DEG 38KT 3514 8281

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
654 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

NCZ065-509-510-090030-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
654 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
HENDERSON AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EST...

At 654 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms with
torrential rainfall 10 miles southwest of Hendersonville, or near
Dupont State Forest, moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Hendersonville, Flat Rock, Tryon, Saluda, Laurel Park,
Dupont State Forest, Chimney Rock State Park, Valley Hill and Tuxedo.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8213 3520 8229 3519 8232 3519 8235
      3518 8237 3521 8239 3519 8242 3517 8244
      3516 8246 3517 8245 3518 8246 3516 8253
      3516 8255 3515 8257 3515 8259 3526 8260
      3527 8261 3540 8223 3540 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 253DEG 28KT 3519 8255

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
719 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

NCZ035-501-502-090045-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
719 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ALEXANDER AND
CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EST...

At 718 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles east of Lenoir
to 12 miles north of Morganton, and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Taylorsville, Gamewell, Hudson, Cedar Rock, Cajah's Mountain,
Kings Creek, Little River In Alexander County, Vashti and
Collettsville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8152 3610 8150 3607 8144 3607 8141
      3604 8140 3602 8135 3600 8133 3603 8127
      3604 8119 3603 8117 3604 8113 3602 8102
      3599 8100 3598 8101 3583 8140 3589 8173
      3593 8175 3593 8178 3594 8178 3612 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 236DEG 19KT 3588 8143 3593 8168

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
722 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

NCZ070-071-SCZ008-009-013-090100-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-
722 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON...YORK...EASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EST...

At 722 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles east of Gaffney
to 14 miles southwest of York, and moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Uptown Charlotte, York, Gastonia, Central Charlotte, South
Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, East Charlotte
and Northwest Charlotte.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8084 3508 8091 3501 8091 3494 8087
      3490 8088 3481 8154 3512 8154 3517 8139
      3516 8133 3519 8132 3537 8075 3505 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 254DEG 38KT 3507 8147 3491 8147

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
753 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-090145-
Gaston NC-Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-York SC-
753 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CABARRUS...
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN GASTON...UNION AND EASTERN YORK COUNTIES
UNTIL 845 PM EST...

At 752 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles south of
Gastonia to 5 miles southwest of Rock Hill, and moving east at 40
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Uptown Charlotte, Monroe, Gastonia, Downtown Concord,
Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte and East Charlotte.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
around an inch per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8038 3483 8080 3494 8078 3508 8091
      3501 8091 3492 8086 3490 8088 3484 8087
      3482 8090 3482 8118 3524 8121 3542 8043
      3531 8042 3519 8051 3517 8047 3516 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 260DEG 36KT 3518 8114 3489 8112

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
949 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

NCZ051-058-090330-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
949 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EST...

At 948 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of showers and thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles
south of Maryville to 10 miles north of Ducktown, and moving east at
55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Robbinsville, Town Of Santeetlah, Smoky
Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area, Lake
Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Fontana Lake, Fontana
Village and Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8402 3552 8388 3556 8377 3556 8350
      3561 8345 3566 8330 3569 8326 3567 8318
      3564 8320 3555 8316 3551 8318 3552 8324
      3547 8335 3533 8334 3528 8367 3525 8370
      3525 8385 3522 8396 3523 8400 3531 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 277DEG 55KT 3559 8401 3519 8440

HG