Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1011 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region late this afternoon into tonight,
bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the area, with a brief
round of snow showers possible along the Tennessee line lasting into
Thursday evening. Cool, dry high pressure will spread back in to end
the work week before another warming trend commences over the
weekend. Another frontal system will approach the area by early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Evening Update...Low ceilings behind the shra/tstms have lingered
and held hr/ly temps a couple cats above normal mainly across the
Upstate and into the lower NC piedmont. Dewpoints have also
increased 4-6 degrees which combined with the warmer temps may make
for better sfc-based instability ahead of the overnight frontal
convection. Not seeing any svr reports upstream ahead of the
front...but expect some overall strengthening of the system as the
upper trof advances through the overnight and increases mlvl lapse
rates.

630 PM EST Update...Pre/frontal -shra/tstms continue to move east
across the FA this evening. Not seeing much in the way of
organization due to limited MUCAPE...however a few of these storms
are producing rather gusty conds warranting a couple SPS issuances.
The downstream environ is less favorable for deepening or organizing
cells...so will anticipate general thunder activity through the next
few hrs.

400 PM EST Update...The going fcst is in good shape and made only
minor tweaks to the PoP/Sky grids to account for a bit later start
of convective initiation. Showers developing across NE GA have been
rather shallow and short lived in limited instability...but expect
an increase in activity and deeper conv this evening as forcing
increases within difl aloft and cooling mid levels.

At 230 PM EST Wednesday...An upper trough will amplify over the
Southern Appalachians tonight, progressing to the Eastern Seaboard
on Wednesday. A weak vort lobe will round the base of the trough
over the Southern Appalachians this evening, then a stronger vort
lobe will round the trough across GA and SC tonight.

At the surface, low level moisture will increase this afternoon and
evening in advance of a cold front approaching from the northwest.
At the same time, modest instability and robust wind shear may
support convection, that may persist until after midnight. At this
time it appears the main threat for tornadoes would be over the NC
and GA mountains, with wind and hail threats extending east across
the rest of the Western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia.

Frontal passage will occur before dawn, with a chance of snow in the
NC Mountains in the wake of the front. Snow accumulations would be
rather light, except perhaps on the very highest peaks, where
amounts could reach two or three inches. Low temperatures tonight
will run well above normal. High temperatures on Thursday will run
near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Wednesday...the end of the week looks like a
continuation of the roller coaster ride, in terms of temperatures.
The upper trof axis will move farther offshore Thursday night and an
upper ridge will move in from the west, which will support dry and
cool high pressure that moves overhead Friday morning. This should
spell low temps a bit below normal under clear sky and calm wind.
Friday should be fair with near normal high temps as the thickness
trof moves east across the region. The seasonal weather won't last.
By Saturday afternoon, with the high having moved off the southeast
coast and the upper ridge axis approaching from the west, warm
advection will bring high temps back to well above normal. The only
issue might be the arrival of a small shower chance over the west on
Saturday afternoon. The operational guidance keeps most of the
showers well to the west through sunset, which seems reasonable with
a lack of forcing and the position of the upper ridge axis still
over middle TN. Will allow for a slight chance mainly over the
Smokies, but that is about it.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday: the main problem with the medium range,
mainly Sunday into Monday, will be the fate of a surface boundary
that lurks to the west of the mtns. The operational GFS and ECMWF
suggest that it will remain stalled to the west of the mtns through
Monday as the flat upper ridge holds on the east coast, at least
thru Sunday. The front is expected to eventually push its way east
of the mtns, but not before all the meaningful forcing has lifted
out to the east and the moisture has become shallow. The implication
is that while we have a chance of precip over the mtns thru the
early part of the week, by the time the front finally crosses over,
it will pass with very little in the way of precip. The medium range
generally keeps this scenario and limits the chance of precip to the
mtns through that time frame. Eventually, a slight chance spills
eastward across the rest of the fcst area Monday afternoon and
lingers thru the middle part of the week, but that is as much a nod
to uncertainty as suggested by the GEFS than to any particular model
solution, noting the GFS and ECMWF provide for a dry period at some
point on Tuesday into Wednesday. The problem will the old front and
where it eventually stalls. This boundary will eventually lift back
north as a warm front, but not until Tuesday night. The effect on
temps is to keep them well above normal on Sunday, before they back
off to merely ten degrees above normal for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A couple rounds of -shra/tstms will affect
all TAF sites thru the first half of the period. The first batch of
activity will be associated with pre/frontal lift genrally btw TAF
time and 04Z or so. Cigs will drop into the MVFR...possibly IFR
range...and remain low before the later morning FROPA. Before then
there shud be lull in precipitation for a couple hrs before the
frontal activity crosses east of all sites by 09Z/10Z. Expect
MFVR/IFR cigs with these showers and storms with perhaps periods of
MFVR vbsy. Winds will veer nw/ly after the FROPA across all locales
and become gusty thru the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook: Cooler and drier conditions return to end the work week,
but a warming trend will begin again Saturday. Another cold front
may sag into the area early next week.

Confidence Table...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       Med   67%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  90%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   72%     High  81%     Med   71%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   77%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  88%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  88%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      70 1937      4 1895     57 1937     -9 1895
   KCLT      74 2009     15 1895     60 1884      1 1895
   KGSP      75 1911     29 1995     54 1932     16 1951
                            1907

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for NCZ033-
     048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...JAT/SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...SBK
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-092145-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia...piedmont
North Carolina...western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop and move
across northeast Georgia, upstate South Carolina, and the Foothills
and western Piedmont of the Carolinas tonight and early Thursday
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A few of the
thunderstorms could become severe, with damaging winds and large hail
the main threats. The storms should move off to the east by daybreak
Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-092145-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through
this evening across eastern Tennessee ahead of a strong cold front.
Some of the thunderstorms will move across the mountains of North
Carolina through late tonight. A few of the storms could be severe,
with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. The storms
should move east of the Blue Ridge during the early morning hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...High winds possible. Winds will increase across the
mountains behind a cold front pushing through early Thursday morning.
A wind advisory is in effect. In addition...some light snow
accumulation will be possible across the high elevations near the
Tennessee border.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-058-059-062-063-092145-
Rabun-Habersham-Swain-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
432 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through
this evening across eastern Tennessee and northwest Georgia ahead of
a strong cold front. The storms will move across the mountains of
North Carolina through late this evening, and then northeast Georgia
through late tonight. A few of the storms could be severe, with
damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats. The storms
should move east of the Blue Ridge during the early morning hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1117 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

SCZ004>006-010-090445-
Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
1117 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE...ANDERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT EST...

At 1116 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a
cluster of thunderstorms with gusty winds and intense lightning
along a line extending from 12 miles northeast of Carnesville to 6
miles southeast of Anderson, and moving east at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Clemson, Seneca, Homeland Park, Belton, Central,
Williamston, Northlake, Honea Path and Pendleton.

In addition to intense lightning, heavy rain at rates of an inch per
hour, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and pea size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8278 3434 8279 3437 8284 3444 8286
      3448 8288 3449 8291 3447 8301 3450 8306
      3450 8307 3452 8309 3453 8308 3453 8310
      3457 8314 3479 8282 3456 8224 3454 8224
      3426 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 260DEG 50KT 3450 8309 3444 8258

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1131 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

GAZ018-026-090515-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-
1131 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN
AND STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EST...

At 1130 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of cluster of
thunderstorms 8 miles northwest of Carnesville, moving east at 45
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Carnesville, Lavonia, Gumlog, Canon, Martin, Avalon, Tugaloo
State Park, Boydville and Eastanolee.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8339 3443 8338 3446 8340 3448 8346
      3452 8344 3462 8327 3462 8324 3461 8323
      3460 8320 3461 8316 3458 8316 3453 8308
      3452 8309 3450 8307 3450 8305 3441 8310
      3436 8311 3431 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 258DEG 39KT 3443 8337

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1136 PM EST WED FEB 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     HAIL             ANDERSON                34.52N 82.65W
02/08/2017  E0.25 INCH       ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PEA-SIZED HAIL IN ANDERSON.

&&

LVISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1140 PM EST WED FEB 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
02/08/2017  E0.50 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PEA TO DIME-SIZED HAIL FALLING IN
            WAYNESVILLE.

&&

LVISIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1140 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

SCZ006-007-010-012-090530-
Laurens SC-Anderson SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
1140 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EST...

At 1140 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles south of Clemson
to 16 miles east of Anderson, and moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville, Greer,
Mauldin, Taylors, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn and Welcome.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8284 3465 8281 3475 8264 3482 8249
      3483 8248 3483 8249 3497 8224 3464 8190
      3447 8231 3448 8231 3448 8232 3447 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 255DEG 41KT 3461 8282 3450 8236

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1204 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

SCZ006-007-012-013-090600-
Laurens SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
1204 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAURENS...SOUTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE...SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL
100 AM EST...

At 1203 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles east of
Anderson to 9 miles west of Laurens, and moving east at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Clinton, Fountain Inn, Woodruff, Buffalo, Gray Court, Croft
State Park, Rose Hill State Park, Fork Shoals and Princeton.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail, and very heavy rainfall
rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 8221 3447 8231 3449 8232 3454 8239
      3455 8241 3459 8242 3462 8245 3491 8179
      3448 8149 3446 8152 3446 8156 3447 8155
      3449 8157 3453 8164 3446 8170 3444 8173
      3437 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0503Z 259DEG 42KT 3457 8242 3453 8218

HG