Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

501 
WWUS52 KGSP 280330
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1130 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCC075-280339-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-170528T0345Z/
Graham NC-
1130 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GRAHAM COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area.  Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
western North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3523 8369 3529 8369 3533 8366 3534 8362
      3537 8359 3543 8359 3543 8360 3556 8350
      3566 8335 3566 8330 3569 8326 3572 8325
      3573 8319 3576 8316 3578 8301 3526 8314
      3508 8358 3516 8366 3515 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 300DEG 48KT 3568 8316 3535 8332 3514 8383 

$$

NCC087-099-113-173-280345-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-170528T0345Z/
Macon NC-Jackson NC-Swain NC-Haywood NC-
1130 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN MACON...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SWAIN AND NORTHWESTERN
HAYWOOD COUNTIES...

At 1129 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 16 miles northwest of Waynesville to 5 miles west of
Sylva to 4 miles south of Andrews, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Sylva, Bryson City, Cherokee, Cullowhee, Maggie Valley,
Webster, Dillsboro, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap and Smoky
Mountains-Balsam Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

These storms are producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

These storms are also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 8369 3529 8369 3533 8366 3534 8362
      3537 8359 3543 8359 3543 8360 3556 8350
      3566 8335 3566 8330 3569 8326 3572 8325
      3573 8319 3576 8316 3578 8301 3526 8314
      3508 8358 3516 8366 3515 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 300DEG 48KT 3568 8316 3535 8332 3514 8383 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CDG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid air will remain over our region through at least
Monday, as high pressure settles east of the Florida coast. A cold
front will slowly approach from the northwest, but will struggle to
push through the area during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT: A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for
most of western North Carolina as upstream convection is drawing a
bead on western NC and additional discrete convection will likely
form over the higher terrain and quickly advect out over the
piedmont through late evening. Corfidi vector steering flow appears
to mainly impact western NC and convective inhibition remains fairly
decent farther south and east. Damaging straight line winds and
large hail due to the steep lapse rates will be the main threats
with this first round.

A second round is possible with an MCS developing over central and
western TN later this evening that should run across the far
southwest mountains and northeast GA overnight/upper Savannah river
area overnight. The forecast has been updated accordingly for higher
northern tier PoPs, with a severe thunderstorm mention this evening,
and then higher southwest sections PoPs for the overnight hours.

The forecast area will remain solidly in the MCS tracks on Sunday
from convection developing from the west in the unstable elevated
mixed layer. Shear will remain more than adequate for
organized/severe convection, with perhaps a better potential for
rotating cells in areas of enhanced low level helicity near the
boundary. Thus, all manner of severe weather is possible on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT...This portion of the forecast becomes very fuzzy
with multiple embedded ripples of vorticity (some convective feed-
back) moving through our region. Although the models offer various
output in this section of the forecast, we will play one outgoing
shot of convection Sunday evening, then lower POPS, with another
shot of energy perhaps reaching our western forecast area (FA)
Monday morning with another uptick in POPS western sections.

The evolution of additional thunderstorms Monday will be somewhat
dependent on whether the early morning convection (if it happens),
tempers the atmosphere. On the other hand we still have a broad
southwesterly flow aloft in place, due to the large upper low north
of the Great Lakes, and spokes of energy rotating through. Also a
weak surface wind shift dropping south into the area, helping to
provide a focus. Considering the unstable nature of the atmosphere
we will continue with medium range chances, and future forecasts may
be able to focus in on additional details.

For Monday night and Tuesday, with the flow aloft southwesterly it
is hard to imagine the front/boundary pushing through our FA, unless
cold pool driven. Therefore we will bring POPS down Monday night,
and then run lower chances on Tuesday, especially south of I40.
There actually may be a series of wind shift lines to cross the area
through Tuesday.

Since we note a downward nudge in the thermal profile Tuesday, we
will back readings off a few degrees compared to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM Saturday: A closed upper low located just north of the
Great Lakes will rotate east but then return to just north of the
Great Lakes next weekend from Hudson Bay. This broad feature creates
a big trough over the east.  Meanwhile, at the surface, a stalled
frontal boundary stretches from Texas to the Carolinas through the
second half of the week except for Thursday when high pressure
coming down from near the Great Lakes pushes the front south of our
area but only for about a day. Shortwave energy and waves of low
pressure will pass across the deep south increasing the chance of
showers and storms Friday and Saturday.  Severe threat should be
quite low.

Expect temperatures to be near normal through the medium range
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: Timing of the convection developing from the west still
looks good for 02Z to 06Z, with TEMPO thunder and associated W to NW
flow gusts. There may well be a lull overnight and then the region
will remain in the tracks of upstream MCSs through Sunday afternoon.
Will time the second round with a PROB30 18Z to 24Z. Expect mainly
southwest flow with low end gusts during mixing away from
thunderstorms, and then robust WNW gusts during thunder.

Elsewhere: Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible at the
mountain and foothills TAF sites as upstream convection rolls
through this evening, overnight, and likely again on Sunday
afternoon. Will handle the first round with TEMPO TSRA at KAVL and
KHKY, with mainly just VCTS at the Upstate TAF sites. The second
round moving across the SW NC mountains and NE GA overnight will
probably miss the Upstate sites just to the southwest. Will feature
a PROB30 for mainly Sunday afternoon for round three of MCS
activity. Expect mostly SW flow with low end gusts during mixing,
except more robust NW gusts with thunderstorms.

Outlook: Thunderstorms and associated restrictions, mainly of the
afternoon/evening variety, as well as the potential for areas of
morning fog and/or low stratus will continue through at least the
middle of next week.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
709 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ082-SCZ001>010-281200-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Union-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-
709 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to either develop, or move into the area
from Tennessee, as the evening unfolds. The storms could last until
after midnight in some locations. Large hail, damaging winds, cloud
to ground lightning and brief heavy downpours will be possible. An
isolated tornado threat can not be ruled out, particularly north of
I85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Severe weather possible. Another round of strong to
severe storms is possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening
across the region.
..Monday...Severe weather possible. Afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Monday. A few
storms may be severe, with the greatest threat expected to be across
the Piedmont.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-501>510-281200-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-
Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
709 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Severe weather possible. Another round of strong to
severe storms is possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening
across the region.
..Monday...Severe weather possible. Afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Monday. A few
storms may be severe, with the greatest threat expected to be across
the Piedmont.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-281200-
Elbert-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-
709 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance that thunderstorms could develop across the region
this evening, or move into the area from the north. The primary
threats from the storms would be locally damaging winds, large hail,
cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Severe weather possible. Another round of strong to
severe storms is possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening
across the region.
..Monday...Severe weather possible. Afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Monday. A few
storms may be severe, with the greatest threat expected to be across
the Piedmont.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Sturey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
919 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCZ033-280215-
Avery NC-
919 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTY UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 918 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles northwest of Beech Mountain, or 8 miles
east of Hampton, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Banner Elk, Beech Mountain In Avery County, Sugar Mountain, Seven
Devils, Grandfather Mountain State Park, Elk Park and B.R.
Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
western North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3627 8189 3625 8190 3624 8190 3623 8191
      3621 8190 3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183
      3611 8181 3610 8178 3607 8175 3607 8174
      3604 8176 3617 8200 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 297DEG 22KT 3630 8202

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1001 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCZ035>037-057-280300-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Alexander NC-
1001 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT DAVIE...
NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER...NORTHERN IREDELL AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...

At 1000 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 7 miles east of Pilot
Mountain to 9 miles southeast of Wilkesboro, and moving east at 35
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mocksville, Statesville, Bermuda Run, Cooleemee, Harmony, Love
Valley, Spencer, High Rock Lake, Fork Church and Advance.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3569 8033 3573 8060 3585 8096 3603 8126
      3603 8107 3606 8098 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038 3589 8037
      3588 8042 3584 8039 3585 8042 3583 8046
      3584 8048 3579 8048 3573 8045 3571 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 284DEG 34KT 3636 8035 3603 8107

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

NCZ033-280315-
Avery NC-
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AVERY COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...

At 1028 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles southeast of Elizabethton, or 5 miles east
of Hampton, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Banner Elk, Elk Park, Beech Mountain In Avery County, Sugar Mountain,
Seven Devils and Grandfather Mountain State Park.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
western North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3627 8189 3625 8190 3624 8190 3623 8191
      3621 8190 3619 8188 3619 8186 3616 8183
      3612 8181 3610 8177 3615 8201 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 279DEG 21KT 3627 8209

CDG