Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
302 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level system and associated cold front will move
northeast and east of our region tonight. Weak high pressure crosses
our area Tuesday and Tuesday night.  A strong cold front approaches
on Wednesday preceded by another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Expect much below normal temperatures at the end of the week with
snow showers in the North Carolina mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The near term fcst is dealing with the advance and strength of the
incoming squall line. Radar returns are showing periodic llvl
rotations as long-line hodos and deep layered shear persist east of
the line. Overall the storms are remaining relatively shallow...but
with WBZ levels arnd 6kft...small to large hail will be likely with
the stronger cells in addition to damaging outflow winds assoc with
a tight relf grad. Instability continues to be a limiting factor in
the overall depth and organization of the system. The latest
meso-analysis shows the area in a relative sbCAPE trof...however
increasing detablization is progged to reach arnd 1000 J/kg along
and south of I-85 over the next few hrs. Thus...will expect an
uptick in stg/svr activity with a few tors possible as the line
progresses east of the FA thru 23z.

The overnight period will see lingering -shra/dz thru daybreak most
locales before an upper level trof axis cross overhead and ushers in
a dry slot shortly aft daybreak. This will clear skies rather
quickly over the area and allow for good insol thru the day. Winds
will veer w/ly and add compressional downslope warming...thus max
temps on Tue will reach near 80 non/mtns and m70s mtn valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1 pm EDT Monday: The next robust closed upper system will move
across the southern Plains Tuesday evening. Ahead of this system, a
warm front left over from the departing cold front that is affecting
the area today will lift back northward from the GA/FL border
Tuesday night. The warm front should rapidly uncover improving
instability Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper system will
move up the OH Valley late Wed through Wed night and drag a trough
axis across the Deep South. The best overlap of strong instability
and deep layer shear will likely impact our region Wednesday
evening, possibly lingering into the early morning hours along and
east of I-77. The most focused severe potential could be with a
squall line just ahead of the cold front Wednesday night. The
current HWO mention will be retained.

A deep and broad trough will persist over the eastern U.S. through
Thursday behind the departing cold front. Cold air and deeper
moisture will wrap back across the southern Appalachians through
Thursday, with some higher elevation snow showers possible.
Otherwise, expect windy conditions throughout.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM  The deep upper trough over the eastern part of the
nation associated with the closed upper low located over PA at 00Z
Friday.  This will be sliding to the east and off the East Coast
through Friday night. The NW Flow snow showers in the NC Mountains
will primarily be Thursday night but the remaining moisture will
reduce to flurries by Saturday morning. The much below normal
temperatures associated with the deep trough will be replaced with
milder temperatures into Monday as an upper ridge replaces the
trough.  The next cold front and upper level trough will be
approaching from the west toward the middle of next week but still
dry for our area through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Warm front crossing the area ahead of a
weakening squall line. Timed in TSRA with TEMPOs all sites changing
to -SHRA and VCSH aft 21z west and 23z east. CIGs will remain in the
MVFR/IFR range with lowering to LIFR possible under any tstms. Llvl
moisture will remain high overnight and lingering -SHRA will remain
in the vicinity all locales. Expect quickly improving conds to VFR
aft 13z as dry slot works in. Gusty w/ly to nw/ly winds late in the
TAF period.

Outlook: Expect brief drying on Tuesday, with another low pressure
system and associated restrictions possibly impacting the area from
late Wednesday into Thursday.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       Med   62%     Med   70%     High  82%     High 100%
KGSP       High  80%     Med   65%     High  91%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   75%     Med   78%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High  81%     Med   71%     Med   75%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   66%     Med   71%     High  91%     High 100%
KAND       High  84%     High  84%     High  91%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

SCZ003-006>009-041830-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
225 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 119 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. Another strong upper level
system will affect the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Another round of isolated severe thunderstorms is expected. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes could occur once again. The
thunderstorm threats will come to an end by early Thursday morning
with the passage of a cold front.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-002-004-005-041830-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
225 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and the far
western Upstate of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A potent upper level system will drive a cold front through the
region today. A squall line will move through region this afternoon.
The primary threats with any thunderstorms will be gusty winds,
hail, and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
early this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. Another strong upper level
system will affect the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Another round of isolated severe thunderstorms is expected. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes could occur once again. The
thunderstorm threats will come to an end by early Thursday morning
with the passage of a cold front.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ036-056-057-062>065-068>072-082-504-506>510-041830-
Iredell-Catawba-Rowan-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
225 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A potent upper level system will drive a cold front through the
region today. Ample instability and wind shear will lead to a slight
risk of severe thunderstorms. A squall line will move through region
this afternoon and evening, with the primary threats being damaging
winds, large hail, heavy rainfall, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. Another strong upper level
system will affect the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Another round of isolated severe thunderstorms is expected. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes could occur once again. The
thunderstorm threats will come to an end by early Thursday morning
with the passage of a cold front.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-035-037-048>053-058-059-501>503-505-041830-
Avery-Alexander-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
225 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A potent upper level system will drive a cold front through the
region today leading to isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some of
which could become severe. Instability will be lowest across regions
of western North Carolina along and north of Interstate 40.
Therefore the risk for severe thunderstorms in marginal for these
locales. Any severe thunderstorms that do develop could produce
damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. Another strong upper level
system will affect the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Another round of isolated severe thunderstorms is expected. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes could occur once again. The
thunderstorm threats will come to an end by early Thursday morning
with the passage of a cold front.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ026-041830-
Franklin-
225 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A potent upper level system will drive a cold front through the
region today, with a squall line of thunderstorms passing. The
primary threats with any thunderstorms will gusty winds, heavy rain,
and cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. Another strong upper level
system will affect the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Another round of isolated severe thunderstorms is expected. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes could occur once again. The
thunderstorm threats will come to an end by early Thursday morning
with the passage of a cold front.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ028-029-SCZ010>014-019-041830-
Hart-Elbert-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-
225 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 119 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. Another strong upper level
system will affect the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Another round of isolated severe thunderstorms is expected. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes could occur once again. The
thunderstorm threats will come to an end by early Thursday morning
with the passage of a cold front.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large
hail...damaging winds...tornadoes or flash flooding to our office.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEREA                   34.88N 82.47W
04/03/2017                   GREENVILLE         SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON CARS AND ON A TRAILER ALONG WHITE HORSE RD.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREER                   34.94N 82.23W
04/03/2017                   GREENVILLE         SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN IN 1100 BLOCK OF PELHAM ROAD.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW LAURENS           34.55N 82.05W
04/03/2017                   LAURENS            SC   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN AND AT LEAST TWO TREES LEANING ON A
            HOUSE ON OWENS DRIVE BETWEEN THE INTERSECTION WITH
            BRAMLETT ROAD AND OWENS EXTENSION.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW TAYLORS           34.94N 82.37W
04/03/2017                   GREENVILLE         SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            THREE TREES DOWN ALONG WITH POWER LINES DOWN ALONG
            TANYARD ROAD AND CARDINAL DRIVE.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CENTRAL             34.74N 82.78W
04/03/2017                   PICKENS            SC   PUBLIC

            AROUND 10 TREES DOWN WITH ONE ON A HOUSE. THIS HOUSE
            LOCATED ON WOOD STREET AND MOST OF THE REST OF THE TREES
            DOWN ON MARION STREET.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW HICKORY            35.73N 81.34W
04/03/2017                   CATAWBA            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN AT 1835 HIGHWAY 70.

&&

HG