Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

039 
WWUS52 KGSP 231857
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCC035-097-109-231907-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-170723T1930Z/
Catawba NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-
257 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHERN
IREDELL AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3568 8077 3562 8076 3551 8087 3551 8091
      3549 8094 3547 8095 3546 8094 3545 8094
      3566 8120 3579 8109 3572 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 305DEG 29KT 3560 8093 

$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary from west to east across our
region through the middle of the week then dissipate.  This should
result in a little cooler temperature and better chances for rain
over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Sunday: Convection will move off the Blue Ridge and
SE across the foothills and piedmont of the Carolinas and NE GA
through early evening. Some of these storms will be severe with
damaging downbursts the main threat but isolated large hail cannot
be ruled out. The NC Southern Piedmont and eastern Upstate look to
have the best chance of seeing severe storms given the movement of
the current broken line of severe storms. That said, there is plenty
of instability and DCAPE over NE GA and the western Upstate, so
those areas are vulnerable as well.

Convection diminishes this evening as the line moves SE of the area.
However, there will be more MCS convection moving into the NC
mountains overnight. The latest CAM guidance shows this convection
diminishing as it moves into the foothills and dissipating before
reaching the piedmont. Have followed these trends in the PoP
forecast. Mountain valley fog, some dense, is expected again and
locations outside of the mountains that receive rainfall may see
some as well. Lows will again be above normal but not quite as warm
as last night.

Convection redevelops Monday as outflow boundaries from the
overnight MCS move across the area. Coverage will be better along
and south of the I-85 corridor where the timing of the boundary
movement will coincide with the higher instability. North of the
corridor instability will be much less leading to only isolated
coverage at best. DCAPE and sfc delta theta-E values while still on
the high side, will not be as high as Sunday. Instability will reach
moderate levels but just barely. Therefore, the chance of severe
storms will be less but not non-existent. Highs will be in the lower
90s outside of the mountain, and while still humid, heat index
values should remain below 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: A weak and nearly stationary cold front
will remain over central GA and SC Monday night into Tuesday,
immediately south of the CWFA. Aloft, we will remain somewhat
under the influence of the northeast CONUS trough, though
without significant embedded vorticity in play early in the
period. More abundant moisture will be present over the south,
near the front, which could increase cloud cover. But otherwise it
appears conditions will be close to climatology, with seasonably
modest instability and weak shear producing a small pulse severe
threat. Partial thicknesses change little from Monday, so max
temps should be similar.

Tuesday night, high pressure will shift into New England in the
wake of the upper trough. A weak upper low is shown to cut off
and remain over the Carolina coast, and allows enough vorticity
to persist over the area that isolated t-storms still could fire
overnight across mainly the Piedmont. The eastward push of the high
will bring cooler air south into the area, which virtually all
guidance indicates will knock max temps down to a couple degrees
below normal, in conjunction with increased cloud cover. Nonetheless
consensus SBCAPE values remain fairly large given still-elevated
sfc dewpoints and good lapse rates afforded by the upper low. PoPs
peak above climo and pulse threats return once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday: The medium range begins Wednesday evening with
a weak closed off 500mb low over the Carolinas and Georgia. As the
next northern stream shortwave crosses the Great Lakes on Thursday,
it kicks this weak low off to the east with the 500mb trough digging
over the East through the weekend. As the Great Lakes shortwave
moves to far eastern Canada, the associated cold front moves slowly
southeast. This front should be nearing the Ohio River early Friday.
As the front approaches from the north, frontal associated
convection will increase first across areas along and north of I-40
Friday afternoon and then spread across much of the rest of the area
Friday evening. The front becomes stationary west to east across our
region through the weekend. The eventual location of the axis of the
trough next weekend varies among the models. This axis location will
have significant influence on our weather. Also, mesoscale
convective systems are expected to develop near the Rockies or
northern Plains states and track southeast in the northwest 500mb
flow toward our region of the nation. Therefore, our weather will
remain unsettled through the weekend. Temperatures will be near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Line of convection developing across the NC
mountains and becoming strong to severe. Have gone pessimistic with
the TAFs in response and indicate VRB winds and TSRA in a TEMPO.
Storms could linger a while in the evening outside of the mountains
so have VFR VCTS in place. Guidance not very favorable for
restrictions outside of the mountain valleys overnight, so have
limited them to KAVL. That said, they will be possible as most
locations will receive rainfall. Scattered convection expected
Monday for all but KHKY. SW wind today becomes light overnight, then
W to SW for Monday.

Outlook: Increasing chances of convection expected through the
middle of next week ahead of a series of weakening cold fronts.
Overnight restrictions will continue in the mountain valleys with
chance increasing elsewhere.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  92%     High  96%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area this afternoon into early evening. The air mass in place is
expected to become moderately to highly unstable. Therefore, many
of the storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. This is in addition to the usual threat
of cloud- to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. While
most of the activity will diminish after sunset, additional
thunderstorms may move into western North Carolina from Tennessee
and Virginia overnight, bringing a second round of thunderstorms
producing lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ068-507-508-510-231845-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern Polk NC-
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN
POLK AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 13 miles northeast of Forest City to 6 miles
northeast of Rutherfordton to 13 miles north of Columbus, and moving
south at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Bostic, Polkville, Shingle
Hollow, Green Hill, Sunshine and Union Mills.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8168 3539 8165 3528 8194 3535 8221
      3539 8220 3540 8220 3550 8218 3550 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 013DEG 10KT 3548 8172 3544 8190 3544 8212

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CONNELLY SPRINGS   35.76N 81.52W
07/23/2017                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT MALCOLM BLVD AND TALMON
            STREET.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
214 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ036-056-069-231845-
Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
214 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN CATAWBA...WEST CENTRAL
IREDELL AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 214 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 10 miles northeast of Newton to 9 miles west of
Lincolnton, and moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Newton, Lincolnton, Conover, Maiden, Claremont, Catawba, Lookout
Shoals Lake, Boger City, Startown and Bandys.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8087 3543 8127 3554 8142 3579 8113
      3578 8111 3580 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 295DEG 18KT 3578 8109 3552 8141

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW NEBO               35.70N 81.94W
07/23/2017                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT STACY HILL ROAD AND HIGHWAY 70.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONNELLY SPRINGS        35.75N 81.50W
07/23/2017                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON LOVELADY ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E OLD FORT            35.63N 82.12W
07/23/2017                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON PARKER PADGETT ROAD...GREENLEE
            ROAD...EBENEZER ROAD...AND LACKEY TOWN ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW