Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

667 
WWUS52 KGSP 231850
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCC149-161-231900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-170723T1900Z/
Rutherford NC-Polk NC-
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES...

At 250 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rutherfordton,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Bostic, Shingle Hollow, Green
Hill, Union Mills and Green Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A few trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned area.
Hail can cause major property damage, especially to vehicles. Seek
shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8174 3519 8197 3519 8201 3541 8219
      3552 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 311DEG 17KT 3535 8200 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
131 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary from west to east across our
region through the middle of the week then dissipate.  This should
result in a little cooler temperature and better chances for rain
over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: Convection developing and becoming strong
to severe across the NC mountains. This will form a line and spread
SE across the CWFA this afternoon. Strong to damaging wind gusts
expected as this line moves through.

Temperatures will be hot with humid conditions again today. However,
temps should remain in the mid 90s, so even with less dew point
mixing, heat index values should remain below 105 for the bulk of
the area.

Otherwise...events around the wrn Carolinas have occurred when we
have a few very hot days in a row with limited convection, but then
a subtle change occurs that unleashes pent up energy resulting in
storms more numerous and severe than expected.  This could be one of
those days. If that wasn't enough, we will have some potential for
bringing an organized convective system in from the WNW later
tonight. Will keep a chance in the fcst overnight to account for
that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday: a progressive upper trough will deamplify as it
crosses the Appalachians on Monday, then retreating to the New
England coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is progged to
be draped across the CWFA on Monday, sagging slightly south into the
lower SC Piedmont or the Midlands on Tuesday. Depending on how much
convective overturning occurs on Sunday into Sunday, Monday may end
up being a little less active than the model guidance suggests. The
00z Hires Windows and the NAMnest are now depicting most of the deep
convection off to the east of the area, with only isolated to
scattered weaker activity atop the CWFA Monday aftn. I have lowered
PoPs slightly to trend in this way. However, confidence in the
amount of instability is still low. Temps may also end up being a
tad cooler. However, the 00z MOS guidance has actually trended
warmer than previous runs. In any case, will continue to forecast
highs a category or so above normal.

On Tuesday, the latest operational models now all depict a weak
upper disturbance or possibly an MCV that develops over the lower MS
Valley. This may help enhance convection across the deep south and
to the north along the stalled front. With the overall weak flow
aloft and typical late-July heat and humidity, I expect typical
diurnal convection, expect perhaps a little greater than usual
coverage owing to the lingering front. A small pulse severe threat
can be expected both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday: The medium range starts out 12z Wednesday with
a weak closed 500 mb low trying to develop INVOF the Carolinas under
a building ridge. By the time the low starts to close off, a
northern stream trough will enter the Great Lakes and should kick
the energy out to the east. This trough will continue to dig along
the East Coast Friday into next weekend. At the surface, a weak low
briefly develops along the stalled frontal zone draped across the
Deep South. This wave be at its strongest during the day on
Wednesday, keeping a light easterly low-to-mid level flow across NC.
With a 1025 mb sfc high over New England and models showing plenty
of clouds and precip across the Carolinas, it almost looks like a
weak cold air damming setup. However, low-level thicknesses do not
suggest true damming. So temps will be slightly below normal, but
not as cold as would be with CAD. PoPs will feature basically a
shotgun CHC for now.

From there, with another upper trough digging in across the eastern
CONUS, expect temps to remain near normal to slightly below. PoPs
will be near climo on Thursday, then above climo for Friday with
another front pushing in from the NW. Depending on exactly where the
axis of the upper trough sets up, the unsettled weather may shift
just east of the area, resulting in a relatively dry weekend.
However, the 00z GFS and ECWMF both keep the trough just enough west
to continue at least a chance for diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Line of convection developing across the NC
mountains and becoming strong to severe. Have gone pessimistic with
the TAFs in response and indicate VRB winds and TSRA in a TEMPO.
Storms could linger a while in the evening outside of the mountains
so have VFR VCTS in place. Guidance not very favorable for
restrictions outside of the mountain valleys overnight, so have
limited them to KAVL. That said, they will be possible as most
locations will receive rainfall. Scattered convection expected
Monday for all but KHKY. SW wind today becomes light overnight, then
W to SW for Monday.

Outlook: Increasing chances of convection expected through the
middle of next week ahead of a series of weakening cold fronts.
Overnight restrictions will continue in the mountain valleys with
chance increasing elsewhere.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area this afternoon into early evening. The air mass in place is
expected to become moderately to highly unstable. Therefore, many
of the storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. This is in addition to the usual threat
of cloud- to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. While
most of the activity will diminish after sunset, additional
thunderstorms may move into western North Carolina from Tennessee
and Virginia overnight, bringing a second round of thunderstorms
producing lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     HAIL             5 NNE MORGANTON         35.81N 81.66W
07/23/2017  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT CHESTERFIELD FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW GAMEWELL           35.83N 81.64W
07/23/2017                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN AT ANTIOCH ROAD AND HIGHWAY 18.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ068-507-508-510-231845-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern Polk NC-
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN
POLK AND NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 13 miles northeast of Forest City to 6 miles
northeast of Rutherfordton to 13 miles north of Columbus, and moving
south at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Bostic, Polkville, Shingle
Hollow, Green Hill, Sunshine and Union Mills.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8168 3539 8165 3528 8194 3535 8221
      3539 8220 3540 8220 3550 8218 3550 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 013DEG 10KT 3548 8172 3544 8190 3544 8212

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW CONNELLY SPRINGS   35.76N 81.52W
07/23/2017                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AT MALCOLM BLVD AND TALMON
            STREET.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
214 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ036-056-069-231845-
Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
214 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN CATAWBA...WEST CENTRAL
IREDELL AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 214 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 10 miles northeast of Newton to 9 miles west of
Lincolnton, and moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Newton, Lincolnton, Conover, Maiden, Claremont, Catawba, Lookout
Shoals Lake, Boger City, Startown and Bandys.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8087 3543 8127 3554 8142 3579 8113
      3578 8111 3580 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 295DEG 18KT 3578 8109 3552 8141

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW NEBO               35.70N 81.94W
07/23/2017                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT STACY HILL ROAD AND HIGHWAY 70.

&&

OUTLAW