Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

577 
WWUS52 KGSP 231823
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCC021-111-161-231833-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-170723T1830Z/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-Buncombe NC-
223 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 230 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3551 8198 3548 8223 3547 8227 3548 8228
      3559 8226 3563 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 330DEG 10KT 3549 8210 

$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
131 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary from west to east across our
region through the middle of the week then dissipate.  This should
result in a little cooler temperature and better chances for rain
over the next few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: Convection developing and becoming strong
to severe across the NC mountains. This will form a line and spread
SE across the CWFA this afternoon. Strong to damaging wind gusts
expected as this line moves through.

Temperatures will be hot with humid conditions again today. However,
temps should remain in the mid 90s, so even with less dew point
mixing, heat index values should remain below 105 for the bulk of
the area.

Otherwise...events around the wrn Carolinas have occurred when we
have a few very hot days in a row with limited convection, but then
a subtle change occurs that unleashes pent up energy resulting in
storms more numerous and severe than expected.  This could be one of
those days. If that wasn't enough, we will have some potential for
bringing an organized convective system in from the WNW later
tonight. Will keep a chance in the fcst overnight to account for
that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday: a progressive upper trough will deamplify as it
crosses the Appalachians on Monday, then retreating to the New
England coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is progged to
be draped across the CWFA on Monday, sagging slightly south into the
lower SC Piedmont or the Midlands on Tuesday. Depending on how much
convective overturning occurs on Sunday into Sunday, Monday may end
up being a little less active than the model guidance suggests. The
00z Hires Windows and the NAMnest are now depicting most of the deep
convection off to the east of the area, with only isolated to
scattered weaker activity atop the CWFA Monday aftn. I have lowered
PoPs slightly to trend in this way. However, confidence in the
amount of instability is still low. Temps may also end up being a
tad cooler. However, the 00z MOS guidance has actually trended
warmer than previous runs. In any case, will continue to forecast
highs a category or so above normal.

On Tuesday, the latest operational models now all depict a weak
upper disturbance or possibly an MCV that develops over the lower MS
Valley. This may help enhance convection across the deep south and
to the north along the stalled front. With the overall weak flow
aloft and typical late-July heat and humidity, I expect typical
diurnal convection, expect perhaps a little greater than usual
coverage owing to the lingering front. A small pulse severe threat
can be expected both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday: The medium range starts out 12z Wednesday with
a weak closed 500 mb low trying to develop INVOF the Carolinas under
a building ridge. By the time the low starts to close off, a
northern stream trough will enter the Great Lakes and should kick
the energy out to the east. This trough will continue to dig along
the East Coast Friday into next weekend. At the surface, a weak low
briefly develops along the stalled frontal zone draped across the
Deep South. This wave be at its strongest during the day on
Wednesday, keeping a light easterly low-to-mid level flow across NC.
With a 1025 mb sfc high over New England and models showing plenty
of clouds and precip across the Carolinas, it almost looks like a
weak cold air damming setup. However, low-level thicknesses do not
suggest true damming. So temps will be slightly below normal, but
not as cold as would be with CAD. PoPs will feature basically a
shotgun CHC for now.

From there, with another upper trough digging in across the eastern
CONUS, expect temps to remain near normal to slightly below. PoPs
will be near climo on Thursday, then above climo for Friday with
another front pushing in from the NW. Depending on exactly where the
axis of the upper trough sets up, the unsettled weather may shift
just east of the area, resulting in a relatively dry weekend.
However, the 00z GFS and ECWMF both keep the trough just enough west
to continue at least a chance for diurnal convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Line of convection developing across the NC
mountains and becoming strong to severe. Have gone pessimistic with
the TAFs in response and indicate VRB winds and TSRA in a TEMPO.
Storms could linger a while in the evening outside of the mountains
so have VFR VCTS in place. Guidance not very favorable for
restrictions outside of the mountain valleys overnight, so have
limited them to KAVL. That said, they will be possible as most
locations will receive rainfall. Scattered convection expected
Monday for all but KHKY. SW wind today becomes light overnight, then
W to SW for Monday.

Outlook: Increasing chances of convection expected through the
middle of next week ahead of a series of weakening cold fronts.
Overnight restrictions will continue in the mountain valleys with
chance increasing elsewhere.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
557 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area this afternoon into early evening. The air mass in place is
expected to become moderately to highly unstable. Therefore, many
of the storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and large hail. This is in addition to the usual threat
of cloud- to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. While
most of the activity will diminish after sunset, additional
thunderstorms may move into western North Carolina from Tennessee
and Virginia overnight, bringing a second round of thunderstorms
producing lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE FARMINGTON        36.00N 80.50W
07/22/2017                   DAVIE              NC   PUBLIC

            ONE LARGE TREE DOWN ON RAINBOW ROAD ALONG WITH SEVERAL
            OTHER LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1151 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-503-231630-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Burke Mountains NC-Madison NC-
Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
1151 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...MITCHELL...SOUTHERN
AVERY...NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE...FAR NORTHEAST HAYWOOD...AND YANCEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

At 1151 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles northeast of Burnsville to 11 miles west
of Marshall, and moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Marshall, Mars Hill, Hot Springs,
Bakersville, Crossnore, Linville Falls, Leicester and Weaverville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8178 3595 8193 3596 8195 3593 8196
      3563 8278 3578 8304 3577 8299 3584 8292
      3586 8292 3597 8261 3595 8256 3601 8246
      3604 8244 3610 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 277DEG 24KT 3603 8224 3582 8288

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1236 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ053-231700-
Buncombe NC-
1236 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles southeast of Marshall, or near Weaverville,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Asheville, Woodfin, Weaverville,
B.R. Parkway from East Asheville To Craggy Gardens, Warren Wilson
College, West Asheville and Biltmore Forest.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 55 mph and nickel
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 8231 3554 8256 3574 8266 3580 8252
      3580 8247 3581 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 325DEG 12KT 3574 8255

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ036-069-071-231730-
Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1259 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL IREDELL...EASTERN
LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Huntersville, or near Westport. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Westport, Denver, Ramsey Creek Park, Cornelius, Lake
Norman and Lowesville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

The southern part of Lake Norman is in the path of this storm. Cloud
to ground lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating
conditions. Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8108 3554 8109 3555 8088 3541 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 270DEG 3KT 3548 8101

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
112 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

NCZ505-506-231745-
McDowell Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
112 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM
EDT...

At 112 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Marion, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Marion, B.R. Parkway between
Craggy and Little Switzerland, Old Fort, Sugar Hill, Pleasant
Gardens, Glenwood, Woodlawn and Busick.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8190 3553 8211 3572 8222 3574 8219
      3578 8216 3579 8217 3580 8216 3580 8215
      3581 8215 3582 8213 3582 8212 3583 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 322DEG 19KT 3573 8215

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WSW GAMEWELL          35.84N 81.69W
07/22/2017                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MANY TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON PAX HILL ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW