Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

953 
WWUS52 KGSP 132227
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
627 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCC003-023-027-035-132245-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0178.000000T0000Z-170713T2245Z/
Catawba NC-Alexander NC-Caldwell NC-Burke NC-
627 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL
AND EAST CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES...

At 626 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest 
of Hickory, or near Hildebran, moving southeast at 10 mph. Another 
severe cell was located very close to the Hickory Airport.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Hickory, St. Stephens, Longview, Granite Falls, Valdese, Bethlehem,
Icard, Hildebran, Connelly Springs and Rutherford College.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Brief damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines over small
areas. A brief period of large hail is also possible. Seek shelter
inside an interior room.

Lake Hickory and Lake Rhodhiss are in the path of these storms. Get 
away from the water and seek shelter in an interior room in the 
nearest shelter. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be 
struck by lightning.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 8153 3584 8142 3592 8141 3579 8117
      3562 8134 3561 8143 3574 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 293DEG 7KT 3570 8144 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
446 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will persist into the weekend, with
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each
day. A cold front will move into the region from the northwest
on Saturday and stall in or near the area through Sunday.
Another cold front will approach on Monday and move southeast
of the area on Tuesday, with drier conditions arriving by the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 445 PM EDT: Made some minor tweaks to the PoPs and T/Td trends
for the next few hours to line up with latest obs/sat/radar. Like
yesterday, convection is generally remaining sub-severe. But gusty
winds, frequent cg-lightning, and locally heavy rain threats exist.
Temps are running a deg or two warmer than yesterday in most spots,
also resulting in heat index values in the 95 to 100 deg range late
this afternoon.

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: Upper ridge continues over the Carolina
coast, with a weakness lifting out of the Gulf into the Lower MS
Valley. Meanwhile a shortwave is working its way across the eastern
Great Lakes around the Canadian longwave trough, while a cutoff
upper low is pushing into the western Great Lakes. Associated
surface low over MI at AFD time has trailing cold front extending
WSW toward the OK Panhandle. Southerly surface flow around the
western periphery of the Atlantic high will continue to bring low-
level WAA toward the Southern Appalachians, enhanced in part by the
Lower MS Valley weakness. Lee troughing and orographic lift plus the
approaching front will continue to be players this afternoon, with
best convective chances remaining across the mountains and adjacent
foothills. Weak steering flow may lead to localized heavy rainfall
concerns. Though sbCAPEs >2000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates are
certainly supportive of Piedmont convection, weak mid-level lapse
rates and lower 850mb RH will continue to inhibit widespread
convection, though with dCAPEs >1000J/kg over the Piedmont,
anything that does develop could contain some gusty winds.

As we move through the near-term, the western cutoff and upper
trough will work east toward Quebec, pushing the front through the
OH Valley. The Southeast upper ridge will break down somewhat and by
the end of the period the front will be working its way across the
area, weak though it may be. Should see increased convective chances
by Friday afternoon (though still with the max over the mountains)
and with the elongated area of upper vorticity approaching as well,
the Day2 Marginal Risk for the northern tier seems warranted as mid-
level lapse rates should improve leading to a low-end wind threat.

Besides the convective activity, above-normal temperatures remain
the concern. Really we're only talking a couple of degrees above
seasonal normals, though with dewpoints hovering around 70 across
the Piedmont, but pooling into the mid 70s toward the foothills,
heat indices will continue to flirt with the century mark, with a
few locations sneaking above it. Still a few degrees below heat
advisory criteria but worth taking standard heat safety precautions
nonetheless.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Thursday: Heights fall slowly but steadily through
the weekend as a trough builds over the eastern CONUS. A weak short
wave drops into the trough and crosses the area Saturday while a
stronger, but still relatively weak, short wave does the same on
Sunday. A weak cold front moves in from the NW Friday night and
stalls across the area on Sunday. The front weakens Sunday as it
slowly moves into the southern portions of the CWFA. Upper level
divergence increases as the right entrance region of the an upper
jet slides south into the area. These features will provide more
forcing for convection than the previous few days. Instability
remains moderate to very high both days but will be on the downward
trend. Shear increases with the short waves but remains below 30
kts. There will be less mid level dry air as well with an increase
in deep layer moisture and PW values near 2 inches. Although, DCAPE
values remain relatively high. Therefore, expect better coverage of
convection CWFA wide Saturday with a focus across the southern CWFA
for Sunday. Severe storm chances will be similar with a marginal
threat CWFA wide Saturday and the threat shifting to the southern
CWFA on Sunday. The heat begins to abate with falling thicknesses
for the weekend. The highs Saturday will be closer to normal but
high humidity will put heat index values near 100 along and south of
the I-85 corridor. Temps fall below normal for Sunday but heat index
values linger in the 90s. Lows remain above normal but with a
cooling trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Monday
with a positively tilted upper trof digging down across the Great
Lakes and broad upper ridging persisting across the western 2/3 of
the CONUS. Over the next couple of days, the upper trof axis will
move over the fcst area as the ridge gradually expands eastward.
Beyond this point, the long range models diverge wrt the trof. The
GFS tries to cutoff the trof over the CWFA on Wed and keep the ridge
from advancing into the fcst area. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
moves the trof offshore and spreads the ridge over the area on Wed
and Thurs. At the sfc, a reinforcing cold front will move over the
fcst area on Monday and stall just to our south before dissipating
on Tuesday. As we go into mid-week, high pressure strengthens to our
NW and moves over the region to end the period. As for the sensible
fcst, no significant changes were made with solid chances for
widespread diurnal convection over the CWFA on Monday and slight to
solid chances for Tues. Wed should be quieter with the center of
the sfc high just to our north. Temps are also expected to start out
right around normal and slowly climb thru the period, yet they are
not fcst to reach heat advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection will increase this afternoon
mainly across the mountains, and have continued VCTS for KAVL and
KHKY. For all other sites, chances too low to include at this time,
but will continue to monitor in case something needs to be added.
Cannot rule out mountain valley restrictions overnight, including at
KAVL, and though the KAVL TAF only includes MVFR conditions, could
easily drop to LIFR again. As the front approaches tomorrow,
convection will increase again but mainly after 18z, so PROB30 only
introduced at KHKY and KAVL.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening convection is
expected each day through Monday across the area, with higher
coverage in the mountains. Morning fog development can be expected
in mountain valleys and areas that receive rainfall in the previous
afternoon.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  93%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-140915-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
514 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Rabun County in northeast
Georgia and the mountains of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the region
this afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms may produce
locally heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and
briefly gusty winds. A few of the thunderstorms may produce
damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. Isolated flooding could
also occur under slowly moving thunderstorms or in areas impacted
by repeated thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ001>014-019-140915-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
514 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
foothills and piedmont of western North Carolina and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the region
this afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms may produce
locally heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and
briefly gusty winds. A few of the thunderstorms may produce
damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. Isolated flooding could
also occur under slowly moving thunderstorms or in areas impacted
by repeated thunderstorms.

In addition, high temperatures of 90 to 95 degrees this afternoon
will combine with humid conditions to produce Heat Index values of
100 to 104 degrees in many foothill and piedmont locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Excessive heat possible. Afternoon Heat Index values
between 100 and 105 are possible.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N GLEN ALPINE         35.77N 81.78W
07/13/2017                   BURKE              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES AND UTILITY
            POLES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF NC 126 AND SILVERS ST.

&&

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
541 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ037-132215-
Davie NC-
541 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DAVIE COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 541 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Mocksville, or 4 miles southwest of Bermuda Run,
moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mocksville, Bermuda Run, Cooleemee, Fork Church, Advance and
Farmington.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8042 3585 8039 3585 8042 3583 8043
      3583 8046 3584 8047 3583 8049 3581 8047
      3579 8048 3577 8045 3575 8046 3578 8048
      3586 8069 3605 8058 3604 8049 3606 8046
      3601 8042 3599 8042 3596 8038 3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 272DEG 15KT 3596 8049

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW MORGANTON          35.79N 81.77W
07/13/2017                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG PERKINS RD

&&

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
557 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ064-132230-
Transylvania NC-
557 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 556 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Brevard, or near Rosman, moving east at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Rosman, Dupont State Forest, Connestee, Cedar Mountain and
Little River In Transylvania County.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 8284 3525 8263 3514 8264 3512 8267
      3513 8268 3511 8270 3511 8269 3509 8272
      3509 8273 3508 8274 3511 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 272DEG 9KT 3517 8277

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW NEBO               35.76N 81.97W
07/13/2017                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTED TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AT
            THE INTERSECTION OF LAKE JAMES RD. AND MARINA DR.

&&

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ053-065-507>510-132230-
Buncombe NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
601 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES
UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 601 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Hendersonville, or 5 miles southwest of Bat Cave,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Etowah, Fairview In
Buncombe County, Mountain Home, Laurel Park, Chimney Rock State Park
and Bat Cave.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8225 3555 8222 3548 8209 3528 8214
      3529 8259 3541 8269 3550 8253 3557 8226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 300DEG 10KT 3540 8235

MOORE