Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

080 
WWUS52 KGSP 132054
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
454 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCC003-132103-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-170713T2115Z/
Alexander NC-
454 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ALEXANDER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3605 8070 3576 8074 3577 8076 3586 8104
      3596 8100 3600 8100 3606 8096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 279DEG 18KT 3597 8079 

$$

NCC097-132115-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-170713T2115Z/
Iredell NC-
454 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY...

At 453 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles southwest
of Yadkinville, or near Harmony, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Harmony, Love Valley, Turnersburg, Olin, Union Grove, Cool Springs,
Scotts, Stony Point and Statesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Brief damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines over small
areas. A brief period of large hail is also possible. Seek shelter
inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8070 3576 8074 3577 8076 3586 8104
      3596 8100 3600 8100 3606 8096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 279DEG 18KT 3597 8079 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

579 
WWUS52 KGSP 132109
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
509 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCC097-132119-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-170713T2115Z/
Iredell NC-
509 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

The storm may re-intensify as it moves into Davie and northern Rowan 
counties. 

LAT...LON 3605 8070 3576 8074 3577 8076 3586 8104
      3596 8100 3600 8100 3606 8096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 277DEG 20KT 3596 8071 

$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
226 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will persist into the weekend, with
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each
day. A cold front will move into the region from the northwest
on Saturday and stall in or near the area through Sunday.
Another cold front will approach on Monday and move southeast
of the area on Tuesday, with drier conditions arriving by the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: Upper ridge continues over the Carolina
coast, with a weakness lifting out of the Gulf into the Lower MS
Valley. Meanwhile a shortwave is working its way across the eastern
Great Lakes around the Canadian longwave trough, while a cutoff
upper low is pushing into the western Great Lakes. Associated
surface low over MI at AFD time has trailing cold front extending
WSW toward the OK Panhandle. Southerly surface flow around the
western periphery of the Atlantic high will continue to bring low-
level WAA toward the Southern Appalachians, enhanced in part by the
Lower MS Valley weakness. Lee troughing and orographic lift plus the
approaching front will continue to be players this afternoon, with
best convective chances remaining across the mountains and adjacent
foothills. Weak steering flow may lead to localized heavy rainfall
concerns. Though sbCAPEs >2000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates are
certainly supportive of Piedmont convection, weak mid-level lapse
rates and lower 850mb RH will continue to inhibit widespread
convection, though with dCAPEs >1000J/kg over the Piedmont,
anything that does develop could contain some gusty winds.

As we move through the near-term, the western cutoff and upper
trough will work east toward Quebec, pushing the front through the
OH Valley. The Southeast upper ridge will break down somewhat and by
the end of the period the front will be working its way across the
area, weak though it may be. Should see increased convective chances
by Friday afternoon (though still with the max over the mountains)
and with the elongated area of upper vorticity approaching as well,
the Day2 Marginal Risk for the northern tier seems warranted as mid-
level lapse rates should improve leading to a low-end wind threat.

Besides the convective activity, above-normal temperatures remain
the concern. Really we're only talking a couple of degrees above
seasonal normals, though with dewpoints hovering around 70 across
the Piedmont, but pooling into the mid 70s toward the foothills,
heat indices will continue to flirt with the century mark, with a
few locations sneaking above it. Still a few degrees below heat
advisory criteria but worth taking standard heat safety precautions
nonetheless.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Thursday: Heights fall slowly but steadily through
the weekend as a trough builds over the eastern CONUS. A weak short
wave drops into the trough and crosses the area Saturday while a
stronger, but still relatively weak, short wave does the same on
Sunday. A weak cold front moves in from the NW Friday night and
stalls across the area on Sunday. The front weakens Sunday as it
slowly moves into the southern portions of the CWFA. Upper level
divergence increases as the right entrance region of the an upper
jet slides south into the area. These features will provide more
forcing for convection than the previous few days. Instability
remains moderate to very high both days but will be on the downward
trend. Shear increases with the short waves but remains below 30
kts. There will be less mid level dry air as well with an increase
in deep layer moisture and PW values near 2 inches. Although, DCAPE
values remain relatively high. Therefore, expect better coverage of
convection CWFA wide Saturday with a focus across the southern CWFA
for Sunday. Severe storm chances will be similar with a marginal
threat CWFA wide Saturday and the threat shifting to the southern
CWFA on Sunday. The heat begins to abate with falling thicknesses
for the weekend. The highs Saturday will be closer to normal but
high humidity will put heat index values near 100 along and south of
the I-85 corridor. Temps fall below normal for Sunday but heat index
values linger in the 90s. Lows remain above normal but with a
cooling trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Monday
with a positively tilted upper trof digging down across the Great
Lakes and broad upper ridging persisting across the western 2/3 of
the CONUS. Over the next couple of days, the upper trof axis will
move over the fcst area as the ridge gradually expands eastward.
Beyond this point, the long range models diverge wrt the trof. The
GFS tries to cutoff the trof over the CWFA on Wed and keep the ridge
from advancing into the fcst area. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
moves the trof offshore and spreads the ridge over the area on Wed
and Thurs. At the sfc, a reinforcing cold front will move over the
fcst area on Monday and stall just to our south before dissipating
on Tuesday. As we go into mid-week, high pressure strengthens to our
NW and moves over the region to end the period. As for the sensible
fcst, no significant changes were made with solid chances for
widespread diurnal convection over the CWFA on Monday and slight to
solid chances for Tues. Wed should be quieter with the center of
the sfc high just to our north. Temps are also expected to start out
right around normal and slowly climb thru the period, yet they are
not fcst to reach heat advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection will increase this afternoon
mainly across the mountains, and have continued VCTS for KAVL and
KHKY. For all other sites, chances too low to include at this time,
but will continue to monitor in case something needs to be added.
Cannot rule out mountain valley restrictions overnight, including at
KAVL, and though the KAVL TAF only includes MVFR conditions, could
easily drop to LIFR again. As the front approaches tomorrow,
convection will increase again but mainly after 18z, so PROB30 only
introduced at KHKY and KAVL.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening convection is
expected each day through Monday across the area, with higher
coverage in the mountains. Morning fog development can be expected
in mountain valleys and areas that receive rainfall in the previous
afternoon.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  94%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-140915-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
514 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Rabun County in northeast
Georgia and the mountains of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the region
this afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms may produce
locally heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and
briefly gusty winds. A few of the thunderstorms may produce
damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. Isolated flooding could
also occur under slowly moving thunderstorms or in areas impacted
by repeated thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ001>014-019-140915-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
514 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
foothills and piedmont of western North Carolina and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the region
this afternoon and evening. Any of these thunderstorms may produce
locally heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and
briefly gusty winds. A few of the thunderstorms may produce
damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. Isolated flooding could
also occur under slowly moving thunderstorms or in areas impacted
by repeated thunderstorms.

In addition, high temperatures of 90 to 95 degrees this afternoon
will combine with humid conditions to produce Heat Index values of
100 to 104 degrees in many foothill and piedmont locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Excessive heat possible. Afternoon Heat Index values
between 100 and 105 are possible.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
316 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ050-503-505-131945-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Mitchell NC-
316 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND WEST CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

At 316 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Spruce Pine, moving east at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
B.R. Parkway-Little Switzerland To Linville, Ashford, Little
Switzerland, North Cove and Woodlawn.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8190 3578 8191 3576 8195 3577 8198
      3579 8213 3586 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 273DEG 10KT 3582 8205

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ048-049-132000-
Yancey NC-Madison NC-
336 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN
YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Marshall, or 4 miles north of Mars Hill, moving
east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mars Hill, Faust, Swiss, Wolf Ridge, Allenstand and Walnut.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8238 3583 8239 3582 8239 3581 8244
      3586 8280 3597 8277 3598 8261 3597 8261
      3596 8258 3596 8257 3595 8256 3597 8254
      3598 8251 3599 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 273DEG 18KT 3590 8256

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
346 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ503>506-132015-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
346 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND WEST
CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Marion, or 6 miles northwest of Lake James, moving
east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lake James State Park, Table Rock, Lake James, Nebo, Woodlawn and
North Cove.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Lake James is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground lightning
and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8212 3585 8207 3586 8176 3566 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 285DEG 15KT 3579 8199

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
357 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ033-050-505-132030-
McDowell Mountains NC-Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
357 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...EAST
CENTRAL MITCHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spruce Pine, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Linville Falls, B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To
Grandfather, Ingalls, Altamont and Ashford.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8191 3596 8194 3595 8193 3593 8193
      3591 8191 3587 8191 3591 8214 3591 8215
      3598 8214 3602 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 275DEG 12KT 3593 8206

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
406 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ049-053-132030-
Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-
406 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Downtown Asheville, or near B.R. Parkway-East
Asheville To Craggy Gardens, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
B.R. Parkway-East Asheville To Craggy Gardens, Black Mountain,
Weaverville, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, Montreat and
Barnardsville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8228 3570 8228 3569 8229 3567 8228
      3566 8229 3564 8228 3561 8228 3567 8254
      3577 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 275DEG 12KT 3573 8245

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
409 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

NCZ035-036-132100-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-
409 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ALEXANDER AND
NORTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 409 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Taylorsville, or near Love Valley, moving east at
15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Taylorsville, Love Valley, Vashti, Union Grove, Hiddenite and Olin.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8083 3586 8087 3595 8131 3604 8119
      3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107 3606 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 275DEG 12KT 3600 8104

MOORE