Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
448 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. A front will push
through the area Saturday night, bringing somewhat drier and cooler
air for Sunday and Monday. More humid and unsettled weather are
expected by Tuesday as that front creeps back into the area from
the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 440 pm: A broken line of convection along a series of outflow
boundaries currently extends from near Abbeville, SC to Spartanburg,
to Gastonia/Lincolnton. The air mass east of this activity is more
unstable, and LFCs slightly lower, so expect at least solid
scattered coverage of convection to persist as the outflows push
into the the SC Lakelands/eastern Piedmont and the Charlotte metro
area. Pops have been increased to 50 percent in these areas into the
early evening. Freezing levels are at around 15kft, so hail will be
difficult to come by, but microbursts will be possible in
association with the collapse of taller updrafts, and also with any
clusters that are able to organize and generate strong cold pools
within the modestly sheared boundary layer.

Otherwise...the pattern remains persistent, although slowly
progressive, so a refresher on what happened the last few nights
just to our west is instructive. Each night, nocturnal convection
has developed closer to the trof axis, and that seems reasonable
tonight, but with the activity shifted shifted eastward by a few
hundred miles and over the NC mtns. So, after the convective
activity wanes later this evening, have kept a chance of precip
across the NC zones through the overnight hours. On Monday, the trof
axis should move slowly east across the fcst area with the main
short wave moving overhead in the afternoon. The fcst reflects this
with a chance of precip shifting east during the morning and then to
the south in the afternoon. Severe weather chances not as good as
the last few days with better dCAPE kept to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday: a long wave trough axis will set up roughly
along the Appalachians for Saturday and Sunday. This should be far
enough east to allow a cold front to push completely thru the CWFA
and usher in some drier, more stable air into the area. The 12z
model consensus looks a bit drier overall than previous runs,
depicting a 1020 mb high building across the Ohio Valley. Saturday
should see at least some isolated showers and tstms as the front
pushes thru and dry air slowly works in from the NW, but moisture
convergence looks weak. By Sunday morning, conditions should be dry.
Temps will be near to slightly above normal Saturday and near to
slightly below normal (with noticeably less humidity) on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thu: The stalled out front to our south will begin to
drift north Sunday night into Monday which will slowly increase
moisture over southern areas at first. Weak high pressure will
remain over much of western North Carolina through Monday.  A
shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday will
have an associated weak cold front moving southeast which may help
to initiate convection for areas north of I-40 by Tuesday evening.
This front to our north will become stationary or nearly so
remaining near the northern parts of WV and VA going into late week.
Upper support for the front moving south will be minimal  We will be
in a typical summer pattern of diurnal chances of afternoon and
evening showers and storms.

After weekend Min Temps being near or a little below normal, all Mas
and Mins through the rest of the medium range should be near steady
state normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR stratocu early this afternoon across the Piedmont
will eventually develop and give way to showers/storms developing
to the west. The situation is persistent, lending credence to
the idea that another round of TSRA will move across or at least
very near the air field later today, in spite of the
differences in the convection-allowing model guidance. Thus,
have opted for a TEMPO for TSRA in the 21Z-01Z time frame.
Environment is supportive of strong downbursts, so gusty winds
are expected near any storms. Showers should linger into the mid
evening, followed by convective debris cloudiness overnight.
The upper trof will be closer to our region Friday morning,
suggesting a better chance for precip on Friday morning as has
been seen off to the west the last few mornings. This
possibility will not be included in the fcst at this time,
instead have opted to bring the chance in at 15Z with morning
heating. Wind should stay SW when not influenced by thunderstorm
outflows.

Elsewhere: Again, a persistence forecast, and similar to KCLT. Will
attempt to get the timing for storms in the late afternoon/early
evening. Nocturnal convection a better possibility over the mtns,
but will keep the chances down in the 30 pct range. KAVL and KHKY
also have the best chance of seeing any restrictions overnight.

Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through Saturday.
Thunderstorms may become more numerous Friday as an upper wave
passes followed by a cold front. Nocturnal restrictions can be
expected in any locations receiving heavy rainfall, and also in
the mountain valleys. Some drying is indicated by Sunday into
early next week.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
406 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-072015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
406 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region
through the evening hours. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning is
possible with any of these thunderstorms. A few of these storms are
expected to produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds to our office.

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
443 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

NCZ068-504>506-508-062130-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Cleveland NC-
Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
443 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHWESTERN
BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Marion, or 4 miles east of Old Fort, moving east
at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Marion, Drexel, Glen Alpine, Casar, Lake James State Park,
South Mountains State Park, Lake James, Valdese and Lake Rhodhiss.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible over
these areas.

LAT...LON 3578 8156 3544 8155 3553 8206 3553 8214
      3574 8212 3580 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 275DEG 25KT 3561 8211

JPT

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