Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

513 
WWUS52 KGSP 061844
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

NCC089-061853-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-170706T1900Z/
Henderson NC-
244 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3502 8241 3520 8242 3520 8240 3521 8239
      3520 8238 3519 8238 3518 8237 3520 8235
      3524 8236 3523 8207 3498 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 276DEG 17KT 3511 8222 

$$

NCC149-SCC045-083-061900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-170706T1900Z/
Polk NC-Greenville SC-Spartanburg SC-
244 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES...

At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Columbus, or 4 miles west of Campobello, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Landrum, Tryon, Campobello, Saluda, Tigerville, Gowensville, North
Saluda Reservoir, Glassy Mountain, Lake Robinson and Lake Bowen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8241 3520 8242 3520 8240 3521 8239
      3520 8238 3519 8238 3518 8237 3520 8235
      3524 8236 3523 8207 3498 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 276DEG 17KT 3511 8222 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JPT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. A front will push
through the area Saturday night, bringing somewhat drier and cooler
air for Sunday and Monday. More humid and unsettled weather are
expected by Tuesday as that front creeps back into the area from
the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM: Showers and a few thunderstorms have initiated over
the higher terrain in the last hour, with more upstream stretching
across the Great Valley of ern TN down into northwest GA. New
storms also developing over the Lakelands. Area east of the Blue
Ridge seems set for another round of scattered strong/severe storm
potential again this afternoon/early eve. Plenty of insolation
has allowed sbCAPE to develop to moderate levels...on the order
of 2500-3500 J/kg...while water vapor imagery shows the presence
of mid-level dry air and analysis shows dCAPE greater than 800
J/kg. Similar to yesterday, we should have another excellent
downburst environment, so expect a few severe storms with wind
damage the primary threat. The shear is a bit stronger today,
so it will be interesting to see if the storms can get better
organized along cool pools.

Otherwise...the pattern remains persistent, although shifted
eastward by a few hundred miles now that our upper trof is finally
moving east. Convection dissipates during the evening but doesn't
end, especially across the mountains where westerly flow and short
wave energy may keep showers going through the night. Highs and
lows should remain near to above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Thursday: a long wave trough axis will set up roughly
along the Appalachians for Saturday and Sunday. This should be far
enough east to allow a cold front to push completely thru the CWFA
and usher in some drier, more stable air into the area. The 12z
model consensus looks a bit drier overall than previous runs,
depicting a 1020 mb high building across the Ohio Valley. Saturday
should see at least some isolated showers and tstms as the front
pushes thru and dry air slowly works in from the NW, but moisture
convergence looks weak. By Sunday morning, conditions should be dry.
Temps will be near to slightly above normal Saturday and near to
slightly below normal (with noticeably less humidity) on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thu: The stalled out front to our south will begin to
drift north Sunday night into Monday which will slowly increase
moisture over southern areas at first. Weak high pressure will
remain over much of western North Carolina through Monday.  A
shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday will
have an associated weak cold front moving southeast which may help
to initiate convection for areas north of I-40 by Tuesday evening.
This front to our north will become stationary or nearly so
remaining near the northern parts of WV and VA going into late week.
Upper support for the front moving south will be minimal  We will be
in a typical summer pattern of diurnal chances of afternoon and
evening showers and storms.

After weekend Min Temps being near or a little below normal, all Mas
and Mins through the rest of the medium range should be near steady
state normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR stratocu early this afternoon across the Piedmont
will eventually develop and give way to showers/storms developing
to the west. The situation is persistent, lending creedence to the
idea that another round of TSRA will move across or at least very
near the air field later today, in spite of the differences in the
convection-allowing model guidance. Thus, have opted for a TEMPO for
TSRA in the 21Z-01Z time frame. Environment is supportive of strong
downbursts, so gusty winds are expected near any storms. Showers
should linger into the mid evening, followed by convective debris
cloudiness overnight. The upper trof will be closer to our region
Friday morning, suggesting a better chance for precip on Friday
morning as has been seen off to the west the last few mornings. This
possibility will not be included in the fcst at this time, instead
have opted to bring the chance in at 15Z with morning heating. Wind
should stay SW when not influenced by thunderstorm outflows.

Elsewhere: Again, a persistence forecast, and similar to KCLT. Will
attempt to get the timing for storms in the late afternoon/early
evening. Nocturnal convection a better possibility over the mtns,
but will keep the chances down in the 30 pct range. KAVL and KHKY
also have the best chance of seeing any restrictions overnight.

Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through Saturday.
Thunderstorms may become more numerous Friday as an upper wave
passes followed by a cold front. Nocturnal restrictions can be
expected in any locations receiving heavy rainfall, and also in
the mountain valleys. Some drying is indicated by Sunday into
early next week.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-070900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today, with the
greatest coverage during the afternoon. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning is possible with any of these thunderstorms. Conditions in
the upper atmosphere are favorable for a few of them to cause severe
weather in the form of damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds to our office.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
112 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

NCZ502-504-061745-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
112 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND
CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 111 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Morganton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Morganton, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Valdese, Gamewell,
Hudson, Icard, Cajah's Mountain and Drexel.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 8136 3576 8137 3571 8141 3566 8177
      3575 8181 3596 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 246DEG 21KT 3574 8171

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
208 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

NCZ065-509-SCZ003-006-061830-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
208 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN POLK AND NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Hendersonville, or near Pleasant Ridge State Park,
moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Slater-Marietta, Tigerville, Lake Robinson, Pleasant Ridge State
Park, Saluda, Gowensville, North Saluda Reservoir, Tuxedo, Glassy
Mountain and Cleveland.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8255 3523 8252 3524 8227 3520 8226
      3519 8222 3503 8222 3497 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 278DEG 13KT 3514 8245

ARK