Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

962 
WWUS52 KGSP 012304
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
704 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCC179-012330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-170701T2330Z/
Union NC-
704 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY...

At 703 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles north of Monroe to 12 miles northeast of
Lancaster to 11 miles east of Rock Hill, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Wesley Chapel, Wingate, Waxhaw, Mineral Springs, Jaars,
Trinity, Sturdivants, Marvin and Unionville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

These storms are producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

These storms are also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8082 3501 8071 3506 8051 3488 8031
      3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 339DEG 14KT 3503 8055 3487 8066 3489 8084 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HG

057 
WWUS52 KGSP 012325
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
725 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCC179-012334-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-170701T2330Z/
Union NC-
725 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning are moving south out of the 
area. Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However 
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with these 
thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3498 8082 3501 8071 3506 8051 3488 8031
      3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 309DEG 15KT 3485 8044 3482 8061 3484 8079 

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a broad upper
level trough will continue over the eastern part of the nation into
the early part of the week.  A weak cold front lingers west to east
over our region Sunday into early week helping in the generation of
showers and storms. Another upper level disturbance will approach
our area later in the week enhancing the coverage of showers and
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 PM EDT Saturday: Continuing to watch multiple rounds of
convection this afternoon, with the first being ongoing shra/tsra
along a diffuse sfc boundary across portions of the Upstate,
northward along I85 into CLT metro.  Said convection remains
rather robust thanks to ample heating and thus diurnally driven
cape upwards of 2-3k j/kg along and south of I85 per the SPC Meso.
With that, expecting further development over the next few hours
across the Upstate, with some strong/severe convection certainly
possible.  Meanwhile, another wave of convection continues to slide
east out of the TN Valley into portions of western NC and northeast
GA.  According to the SPC Meso, instability fields are much lower,
however still at levels supportive of deep convection with severe
storms not out of the question.  One additional threat regionwide
(however focused mainly across the western tier of the fcst area)
will be flash flooding as storm motions are rather weak, which
combined with robust rainfall and already decreased ffg values,
could result in isolated flooding concerns.  As for the fcst,
tweaked pops/t/td and sky to align with recent radar/obs/sat as
well as CAM guidance.

As of 2:10pm EDT Saturday:  Currently, some showers and
thunderstorms have fired only a weak surface boundary that
runs northeast to southwest along the foothills from Iredell to
Polk counties.  These storms are expected to move ENE through the
afternoon.  More storms are expected to enter western parts of the
CWA later this afternoon/evening as an upper level disturbance
moves eastward across the area.  An area of thunderstorms near
severe intensity currently exists in central Tennessee with this
wave, and these showers will continue eastward, reaching northeast
Georgia and western North Carolina by 6pm, with some earlier
showers popping up ahead of the main activity also possible.
There is some chance for severe outflows from any of these storms,
along with brief torrential rainfall and heavy lightning.

Clearing skies have allowed temperatures to warm to near or above
seasonal normals.  Moisture is still in place and this warming has
resulted in MLCAPE increasing to the highest levels seen this week
at 1500 to 2000 j/kg.  Shear is still weak, but with higher CAPE,
some strong outflows will be a risk this afternoon.

Following passage of shortwave, surface trough also moves eastward
and low-level winds veer to become more northwesterly.  This will
help to dry things a little bit with dewpoints on Sunday several
degrees below Saturday.  With reduced moisture, surface boundary
east of the area, and a lack of shortwave activity, POPs and
thunderstorm chances are much lower on Sunday. With less cloudy
and drier conditions on Sunday, highs will warm into the low 90s
in piedmont areas to mid 80s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday:  An interesting twist for this part of
the forecast cycle. It appears the suite of models are trying to
allow several short waves aloft, to zip across the southern edge of
the westerlies, and cross the Carolina's and northeast Georgia. This
would be from Monday into Tuesday.

These pockets of energy will interact with a moist and unstable
atmosphere, and potentially allow a couple episodes of greater
shower and thunderstorm coverage. Actually the NAM closes off an H7
and H85 center and drifts it through the region.

We will allow precipitation to wane Sunday night, but not shut off
completely. We will then follow the first short wave to enhance
showers and thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. Another downward
trend in POPS again late Monday night, as the energy moves
through, but not completely ending.

The second wave for Tuesday will increase shower and thunderstorm
coverage once again. Meanwhile throughout the two day period there
will be a surface convergence boundary, although weak, which could
focus the activity. However, at this time the small scale details
are rather nebulous.

Since we are forecasting more clouds and precipitation Monday and
Tuesday, we have lowered maximum temperatures a few degrees.
Otherwise continuity with the previous temperature forecast was
followed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday: Starting Tuesday evening with the broad
upper trough over the East and ridge centered over the Four Corners.
The nearly closed off shortwave trough will be over Missouri Tuesday
evening and moving slowly toward our region.  The GFS has a well
defined low level circulation over the Upper Savannah River Valley
Tuesday night. The EC little low pressures over the Carolinas at
that time so looks a bit active to start this medium range.  The
Missouri shortwave crosses the Ohio Valley Wednesday with more
enhancement of convection for our region especially late Thursday.
CAPE values between 2500 and 3000 late Thursday with highest values
over NE GA and Upstate SC. Some shear will also help in generating
strong storms.  The models have a fairly deep trough over the East
Coast next weekend and a big ridge from the eastern Rockies north
into Canada.  The front that moves through Thursday night should
linger just south of our area through the weekend. So the scattered
convection hangs on.

Temperatures should remain near normal and maybe Max Temps just
below if the could cover is persistent.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Currently some thunderstorms are firing along
a weak convergence boundary from north of KGSP to north of KCLT.
These showers will move ESE and increase in coverage through 0Z this
evening.  More showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
the area after 21Z from the west associated with an upper level
disturbance.  These thunderstorms will be accompanied by divergent
outflows with highly variable and gusty winds.  Thunderstorms will
move east of the area and decline by midnight.  Some low clouds and
patchy fog are also possible Sunday morning, especially in
mountainous areas.  Overnight, surface winds will veer, becoming
more westerly to northwesterly as weak surface boundary moves out of
the area.  With somewhat dryer air, showers and clouds will be less
impactful on Sunday when conditions are expected to be VFR following
burn-off of any fog/low clouds.

Outlook: A moist and unsettled pattern will persist into early
next week, featuring mainly afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA and areas
of nocturnal restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     Med   68%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/WJM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
532 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-021100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
532 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A moist and unstable airmass persists across the region. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening,
before gradually waning after dark. Until then some of the stronger
storms may produce damaging winds, large hail and torrential
rainfall. The torrential rain could generate local flooding issues.
Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes are likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

Sturey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
618 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ071-082-SCZ009-014-012245-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Chester SC-
618 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG...UNION...
NORTHEASTERN CHESTER AND EASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 618 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles northwest of Monroe to 12 miles east of
Rock Hill to 9 miles northeast of York, and moving southeast at 25
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Monroe, Indian Trail, Weddington, Fort Mill, Stallings,
Unionville, Tega Cay, Newport and Wesley Chapel.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078 3503 8086
      3503 8090 3502 8090 3492 8086 3490 8088
      3484 8087 3483 8090 3477 8088 3475 8112
      3513 8121 3505 8090 3504 8088 3517 8061
      3495 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 303DEG 24KT 3510 8062 3499 8082 3508 8111

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
620 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ010-NCZ052-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-012245-
Rabun GA-Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Southern Jackson NC-
Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
620 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN RABUN...SOUTHEASTERN MACON...WESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 620 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of
Sylva to 14 miles northeast of Clayton, and moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Cullowhee, Highlands, Rosman, Cashiers, Salem, Lake Toxaway,
Graveyard Fields, Jocassee Gorges, Devils Fork State Park and Black
Balsam Area.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8317 3535 8275 3481 8288 3480 8291
      3493 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 282DEG 16KT 3528 8313 3500 8319

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
630 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

SCZ007>009-013-014-012300-
York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-Chester SC-Spartanburg SC-
630 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...YORK...
EAST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northeast of York to 15 miles northwest
of Chester to 9 miles northwest of Union, and moving southeast at 15
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Union, York, Chester, Tega Cay, Clover, Newport, Pacolet,
Monarch Mill and Buffalo.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3472 8114 3460 8170 3489 8182 3496 8138
      3516 8119 3507 8106 3506 8106 3504 8104
      3505 8103 3497 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 321DEG 13KT 3505 8120 3492 8133 3483 8172

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ017-018-026-SCZ001-004-012300-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...EAST CENTRAL HABERSHAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 635 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 5 miles northwest of Toccoa, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Westminster, Lavonia, Gumlog, Martin, Avalon, Tugaloo State
Park, Tallulah Falls, Turnerville and Oakway.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3473 8346 3467 8299 3449 8305 3442 8309
      3456 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 285DEG 26KT 3463 8341

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
636 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ026-028-029-012300-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Franklin GA-
636 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN...WEST CENTRAL ELBERT AND SOUTHWESTERN HART COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

At 636 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles south of Carnesville, or 5 miles north of
Ila, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Royston, Bowman, Canon, Franklin Springs, Victoria Bryant State Park,
Bowersville and Vanna.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3412 8305 3415 8306 3417 8310 3423 8308
      3427 8312 3424 8317 3425 8320 3424 8325
      3426 8330 3423 8336 3425 8334 3428 8335
      3434 8335 3438 8301 3411 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 270DEG 14KT 3425 8327

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ064-065-SCZ001>003-005-012315-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
644 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...NORTHERN PICKENS AND
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles west of Brevard to 19 miles northwest of
Pickens to 14 miles north of Walhalla, and moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Pickens, Slater-Marietta, Rosman, Salem, Lake Toxaway,
Jocassee Gorges, Devils Fork State Park, Table Rock State Park and
Caesars Head State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3494 8313 3494 8311 3495 8313 3496 8312
      3499 8310 3500 8310 3503 8301 3505 8304
      3511 8296 3528 8290 3526 8239 3503 8247
      3481 8276 3493 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 281DEG 25KT 3520 8288 3510 8291 3498 8307

HG