Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

122 
WWUS52 KGSP 012059
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
459 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCC071-109-119-012115-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-170701T2115Z/
Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Gaston NC-
459 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND CENTRAL
GASTON COUNTIES...

At 459 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Huntersville to 3 miles southwest
of Lincolnton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, Northwest Charlotte, Mt Holly, Belmont, Dallas, Stanley,
Cramerton, Lowell, Ranlo and High Shoals.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

These storms are producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

These storms are also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 8124 3547 8104 3537 8076 3512 8101
      3536 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 303DEG 18KT 3535 8095 3545 8130 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a broad upper
level trough will continue over the eastern part of the nation into
the early part of the week.  A weak cold front lingers west to east
over our region Sunday into early week helping in the generation of
showers and storms. Another upper level disturbance will approach
our area later in the week enhancing the coverage of showers and
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 PM EDT Saturday: Continuing to watch multiple rounds of
convection this afternoon, with the first being ongoing shra/tsra
along a diffuse sfc boundary across portions of the Upstate,
northward along I85 into CLT metro.  Said convection remains
rather robust thanks to ample heating and thus diurnally driven
cape upwards of 2-3k j/kg along and south of I85 per the SPC Meso.
With that, expecting further development over the next few hours
across the Upstate, with some strong/severe convection certainly
possible.  Meanwhile, another wave of convection continues to slide
east out of the TN Valley into portions of western NC and northeast
GA.  According to the SPC Meso, instability fields are much lower,
however still at levels supportive of deep convection with severe
storms not out of the question.  One additional threat regionwide
(however focused mainly across the western tier of the fcst area)
will be flash flooding as storm motions are rather weak, which
combined with robust rainfall and already decreased ffg values,
could result in isolated flooding concerns.  As for the fcst,
tweaked pops/t/td and sky to align with recent radar/obs/sat as
well as CAM guidance.

As of 2:10pm EDT Saturday:  Currently, some showers and
thunderstorms have fired only a weak surface boundary that
runs northeast to southwest along the foothills from Iredell to
Polk counties.  These storms are expected to move ENE through the
afternoon.  More storms are expected to enter western parts of the
CWA later this afternoon/evening as an upper level disturbance
moves eastward across the area.  An area of thunderstorms near
severe intensity currently exists in central Tennessee with this
wave, and these showers will continue eastward, reaching northeast
Georgia and western North Carolina by 6pm, with some earlier
showers popping up ahead of the main activity also possible.
There is some chance for severe outflows from any of these storms,
along with brief torrential rainfall and heavy lightning.

Clearing skies have allowed temperatures to warm to near or above
seasonal normals.  Moisture is still in place and this warming has
resulted in MLCAPE increasing to the highest levels seen this week
at 1500 to 2000 j/kg.  Shear is still weak, but with higher CAPE,
some strong outflows will be a risk this afternoon.

Following passage of shortwave, surface trough also moves eastward
and low-level winds veer to become more northwesterly.  This will
help to dry things a little bit with dewpoints on Sunday several
degrees below Saturday.  With reduced moisture, surface boundary
east of the area, and a lack of shortwave activity, POPs and
thunderstorm chances are much lower on Sunday. With less cloudy
and drier conditions on Sunday, highs will warm into the low 90s
in piedmont areas to mid 80s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday:  An interesting twist for this part of
the forecast cycle. It appears the suite of models are trying to
allow several short waves aloft, to zip across the southern edge of
the westerlies, and cross the Carolina's and northeast Georgia. This
would be from Monday into Tuesday.

These pockets of energy will interact with a moist and unstable
atmosphere, and potentially allow a couple episodes of greater
shower and thunderstorm coverage. Actually the NAM closes off an H7
and H85 center and drifts it through the region.

We will allow precipitation to wane Sunday night, but not shut off
completely. We will then follow the first short wave to enhance
showers and thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. Another downward
trend in POPS again late Monday night, as the energy moves
through, but not completely ending.

The second wave for Tuesday will increase shower and thunderstorm
coverage once again. Meanwhile throughout the two day period there
will be a surface convergence boundary, although weak, which could
focus the activity. However, at this time the small scale details
are rather nebulous.

Since we are forecasting more clouds and precipitation Monday and
Tuesday, we have lowered maximum temperatures a few degrees.
Otherwise continuity with the previous temperature forecast was
followed.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday: Starting Tuesday evening with the broad
upper trough over the East and ridge centered over the Four Corners.
The nearly closed off shortwave trough will be over Missouri Tuesday
evening and moving slowly toward our region.  The GFS has a well
defined low level circulation over the Upper Savannah River Valley
Tuesday night. The EC little low pressures over the Carolinas at
that time so looks a bit active to start this medium range.  The
Missouri shortwave crosses the Ohio Valley Wednesday with more
enhancement of convection for our region especially late Thursday.
CAPE values between 2500 and 3000 late Thursday with highest values
over NE GA and Upstate SC. Some shear will also help in generating
strong storms.  The models have a fairly deep trough over the East
Coast next weekend and a big ridge from the eastern Rockies north
into Canada.  The front that moves through Thursday night should
linger just south of our area through the weekend. So the scattered
convection hangs on.

Temperatures should remain near normal and maybe Max Temps just
below if the could cover is persistent.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Currently some thunderstorms are firing along
a weak convergence boundary from north of KGSP to north of KCLT.
These showers will move ESE and increase in coverage through 0Z this
evening.  More showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
the area after 21Z from the west associated with an upper level
disturbance.  These thunderstorms will be accompanied by divergent
outflows with highly variable and gusty winds.  Thunderstorms will
move east of the area and decline by midnight.  Some low clouds and
patchy fog are also possible Sunday morning, especially in
mountainous areas.  Overnight, surface winds will veer, becoming
more westerly to northwesterly as weak surface boundary moves out of
the area.  With somewhat dryer air, showers and clouds will be less
impactful on Sunday when conditions are expected to be VFR following
burn-off of any fog/low clouds.

Outlook: A moist and unsettled pattern will persist into early
next week, featuring mainly afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA and areas
of nocturnal restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     Med   68%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/WJM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
513 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A moist and unstable airmass will persist across the region today. By
the afternoon...strong and deep thunderstorms will develop capable
of producing heavy rainfall leading to possible localized flooding.
In addition...some of the stronger storms could generate damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ048-049-012030-
Yancey NC-Madison NC-
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON AND NORTHERN YANCEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 404 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles southeast of Greeneville to 11 miles east
of Newport, and moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marshall, Hot Springs, Mars Hill, Ramseytown, Green Mountain, Swiss,
Faust, Allenstand, Walnut and Luck.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8234 3603 8233 3604 8230 3599 8225
      3601 8225 3599 8219 3570 8285 3579 8296
      3588 8290 3593 8292 3595 8287 3593 8281
      3600 8278 3606 8264 3603 8259 3597 8261
      3595 8257 3601 8246 3608 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 284DEG 29KT 3606 8273 3594 8298

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
407 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ035-036-012030-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-
407 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALEXANDER AND NORTHERN IREDELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Taylorsville, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Taylorsville, Stony Point, Harmony, Love Valley,
Hiddenite, Turnersburg, Olin, Vashti and Millersville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, dime size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 8075 3571 8094 3582 8114 3583 8114
      3583 8116 3590 8130 3603 8124 3604 8119
      3603 8117 3604 8113 3604 8111 3603 8110
      3603 8107 3604 8104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 290DEG 27KT 3597 8118

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
416 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ070-071-012045-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-
416 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND EASTERN
GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles southwest of Downtown Concord to near
Uptown Charlotte to 8 miles northeast of Gastonia, and moving
southeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Gastonia, Central Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte,
East Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, Matthews, Mint Hill, Mt Holly
and Belmont.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3512 8066 3511 8103 3513 8105 3515 8105
      3515 8109 3539 8120 3527 8094 3533 8069
      3527 8067 3521 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 287DEG 33KT 3530 8069 3525 8088 3534 8105

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

SCZ002-003-005-006-012045-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Pickens, or near Table Rock State Park, moving
east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Travelers Rest, Slater-Marietta, Paris Mountain State Park,
Tigerville, Lake Robinson, Pleasant Ridge State Park, Jones Gap State
Park, Table Rock State Park, Furman University and Caesars Head State
Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3492 8270 3509 8273 3519 8229 3492 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 262DEG 24KT 3502 8263

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ069>071-012100-
Gaston NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-
429 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LINCOLN...WEST CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG AND GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles east of Lincolnton to 13 miles northeast
of Shelby, and moving southeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Lincolnton, Mt Holly, Cherryville, Bessemer City, Dallas,
Stanley, Lowell, Ranlo and High Shoals.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8085 3522 8127 3545 8145 3549 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 293DEG 19KT 3546 8115 3544 8138

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
434 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ035-036-056-012100-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
434 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN CATAWBA...EASTERN ALEXANDER AND CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 434 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 5 miles southeast of Taylorsville, or near Stony
Point, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Taylorsville, Troutman, Stony Point, Lake Norman State
Park, Lookout Shoals Lake, Catawba, Lake Norman, Hiddenite and
Millersville.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8072 3580 8072 3560 8090 3584 8123
      3599 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 304DEG 23KT 3588 8110

HG