Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

192 
WWUS52 KGSP 011952
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCC109-012001-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-170701T2015Z/
Lincoln NC-
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved south of Lincoln 
County. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3511 8096 3540 8117 3541 8116 3540 8096
      3544 8095 3545 8091 3527 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 329DEG 6KT 3539 8088 3538 8117 

$$

NCC071-119-012015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-170701T2015Z/
Mecklenburg NC-Gaston NC-
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND EASTERN GASTON COUNTIES...

At 351 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Huntersville to 8 miles southeast of Lincolnton,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, Northeast Charlotte, Northwest
Charlotte, Mt Holly, Belmont, Stanley, Freedom Park, Reedy Creek Park
and The Plaza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

These storms are producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

These storms are also producing extremely heavy rainfall. Flooding of
drainage ditches and low lying areas may occur. Small streams will
rise rapidly. Do not drive through areas where water is flowing over
the road.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 8096 3540 8117 3541 8116 3540 8096
      3544 8095 3545 8091 3527 8070
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 329DEG 6KT 3539 8088 3538 8117 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
305 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the western Atlantic and a broad upper
level trough will continue over the eastern part of the nation into
the early part of the week.  A weak cold front lingers west to east
over our region Sunday into early week helping in the generation of
showers and storms. Another upper level disturbance will approach
our area later in the week enhancing the coverage of showers and
storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:10pm EDT Saturday:  Currently, some showers and
thunderstorms have fired only a weak surface boundary that runs
northeast to southwest along the foothills from Iredell to Polk
counties.  These storms are expected to move ENE through the
afternoon.  More storms are expected to enter western parts of the
CWA later this afternoon/evening as an upper level disturbance moves
eastward across the area.  An area of thunderstorms near severe
intensity currently exists in central Tennessee with this wave, and
these showers will continue eastward, reaching northeast Georgia and
western North Carolina by 6pm, with some earlier showers popping up
ahead of the main activity also possible.  There is some chance for
severe outflows from any of these storms, along with brief
torrential rainfall and heavy lightning.

Clearing skies have allowed temperatures to warm to near or above
seasonal normals.  Moisture is still in place and this warming has
resulted in MLCAPE increasing to the highest levels seen this week
at 1500 to 2000 j/kg.  Shear is still weak, but with higher CAPE,
some strong outflows will be a risk this afternoon.

Following passage of shortwave, surface trough also moves eastward
and low-level winds veer to become more northwesterly.  This will
help to dry things a little bit with dewpoints on Sunday several
degrees below Saturday.  With reduced moisture, surface boundary
east of the area, and a lack of shortwave activity, POPs and
thunderstorm chances are much lower on Sunday. With less cloudy and
drier conditions on Sunday, highs will warm into the low 90s in
piedmont areas to mid 80s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday: At the start of this forecast cycle
the south and west sections of our forecast area (FA) will
already be firmly in an airmass change. That trend should shift
east through mid week.

Meanwhile an upper level ridge will remain poised off the eastern
seaboard, and the westerlies displaced well north, through this
period. This places our FA in a rather non-descript regime with
small scale features noted on all the models, at different times and
places.

In the early part of the forecast we will allow Monday's evening
convection to wane in parts of our western FA, albeit a little
slower with a moist airmass.

Otherwise there appears to be consistency from the models with the
idea of scattered convection firing in the western half of our FA
Tuesday along a weak surface convergence zone. That convection
should then drift/develop east and south. At this point we will have
minimal or no POPS in our far east, in comparison to high chances in
the west. SBCAPES will be amply unstable

Wednesday has the same lee side trough look, only more well defined.
The suite of models have noted this trend, and we have raised POPS
higher for Wednesday in comparison to Tuesday. Once again SBCAPES
will be high.

The overall thermal structure suggests a slight upward trend into
midweek, and we have followed those trends.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday: Starting Tuesday evening with the broad
upper trough over the East and ridge centered over the Four Corners.
The nearly closed off shortwave trough will be over Missouri Tuesday
evening and moving slowly toward our region.  The GFS has a well
defined low level circulation over the Upper Savannah River Valley
Tuesday night. The EC little low pressures over the Carolinas at
that time so looks a bit active to start this medium range.  The
Missouri shortwave crosses the Ohio Valley Wednesday with more
enhancement of convection for our region especially late Thursday.
CAPE values between 2500 and 3000 late Thursday with highest values
over NE GA and Upstate SC. Some shear will also help in generating
strong storms.  The models have a fairly deep trough over the East
Coast next weekend and a big ridge from the eastern Rockies north
into Canada.  The front that moves through Thursday night should
linger just south of our area through the weekend. So the scattered
convection hangs on.

Temperatures should remain near normal and maybe Max Temps just
below if the could cover is persistent.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Currently some thunderstorms are firing along
a weak convergence boundary from north of KGSP to north of KCLT.
These showers will move ESE and increase in coverage through 0Z this
evening.  More showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
the area after 21Z from the west associated with an upper level
disturbance.  These thunderstorms will be accompanied by divergent
outflows with highly variable and gusty winds.  Thunderstorms will
move east of the area and decline by midnight.  Some low clouds and
patchy fog are also possible Sunday morning, especially in
mountainous areas.  Overnight, surface winds will veer, becoming
more westerly to northwesterly as weak surface boundary moves out of
the area.  With somewhat dryer air, showers and clouds will be less
impactful on Sunday when conditions are expected to be VFR following
burn-off of any fog/low clouds.

Outlook: A moist and unsettled pattern will persist into early
next week, featuring mainly afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA and areas
of nocturnal restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     Med   75%     High  92%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  99%     High  86%     High  96%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High  96%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
513 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A moist and unstable airmass will persist across the region today. By
the afternoon...strong and deep thunderstorms will develop capable
of producing heavy rainfall leading to possible localized flooding.
In addition...some of the stronger storms could generate damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
241 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ069-070-011915-
Gaston NC-Lincoln NC-
241 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LINCOLN AND NORTHEASTERN GASTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 240 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lincolnton, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lincolnton, Mt Holly, Stanley, Westport, High Shoals, Boger City,
Iron Station, Denver, Lake Norman and Lowesville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8096 3542 8095 3539 8097 3538 8099
      3536 8098 3528 8101 3542 8137 3556 8132
      3555 8096 3553 8094 3553 8095 3550 8096
      3549 8095 3547 8095 3546 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 287DEG 18KT 3549 8126

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
252 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ036-056-057-071-011915-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
252 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles south of Statesville to 11 miles east of
Newton, and moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Huntersville, Cornelius, Mooresville, Davidson,
Troutman, Cleveland, Lake Norman, Lake Norman State Park and Ramsey
Creek Park.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8052 3550 8073 3551 8078 3549 8079
      3547 8078 3538 8089 3547 8095 3549 8095
      3550 8096 3553 8095 3553 8094 3555 8096
      3555 8100 3565 8107 3582 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 312DEG 14KT 3574 8089 3564 8102

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
256 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ036-056-057-071-011915-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
256 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles south of Statesville to 11 miles east of
Newton, and moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Huntersville, Cornelius, Mooresville, Davidson,
Troutman, Cleveland, Lake Norman, Lake Norman State Park and Ramsey
Creek Park.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake Norman is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground lightning
and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 8052 3550 8073 3551 8078 3549 8079
      3547 8078 3538 8089 3547 8095 3549 8095
      3550 8096 3553 8095 3553 8094 3555 8096
      3555 8100 3565 8107 3582 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 312DEG 14KT 3574 8089 3564 8102

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
312 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-011945-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Oconee Mountains SC-
312 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS...HABERSHAM...SOUTH CENTRAL RABUN AND WEST
CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 311 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 11 miles southwest of
Clayton to 7 miles northwest of Clarkesville, and moving east at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clarkesville, Toccoa, Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Mount Airy,
Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lakemont and Tallulah Gorge State Park.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8365 3469 8364 3478 8348 3480 8313
      3461 8328 3449 8350 3449 8354 3448 8355
      3453 8363 3454 8362 3455 8362 3458 8364
      3461 8365 3462 8364 3466 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 276DEG 16KT 3472 8348 3465 8364

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
323 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

SCZ001-004-012000-
Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
323 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
OCONEE COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 322 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles west of Walhalla, or 8 miles northwest of
Westminster, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Walhalla, Seneca, Westminster, Lake Keowee and Long Creek.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, dime size
hail and very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8326 3480 8289 3455 8309 3459 8315
      3459 8317 3460 8317 3460 8316 3461 8316
      3461 8320 3466 8330 3467 8331 3467 8332
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 286DEG 17KT 3474 8321

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
326 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

NCZ069>071-012000-
Gaston NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-
326 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EASTERN
LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND NORTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 11 miles east of Lincolnton, or 5 miles northeast
of Stanley, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Northwest Charlotte, Cornelius, Mt Holly, Davidson,
Stanley, Westport, Paw Creek, Denver and Ramsey Creek Park.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and very
heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 8089 3538 8118 3554 8107 3552 8095
      3550 8096 3549 8095 3551 8091 3549 8078
      3545 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 299DEG 15KT 3543 8105

HG