River Flood Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
311 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east of the area tonight. Drier and cooler
air will sweep into the region on Tuesday leading to possible frosty
conditions Wednesday and Thursday morning.  Dry conditions are expected
to persist through the remainder of the work week before another front
moves in next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT: Severe storm and flood threat will maximize the
next couple of hours as a strong line of convection moves west to
east across the area. Strong shear and helicity along the line is
moving into an area of better instability ahead of the line.
Therefore, the watch is well placed and severe storms will be
possible across the watch area as the line moves through. Heavy rain
and any flood warnings will be most likely across the foothills and
mountains of NC and the northern Upstate where upslope flow is
maximized along the line of convection. Sustained gradient winds
have diminished across the mountains, so the wind advisory has
expired as scheduled. However, strong gusty winds are possible
through the afternoon with stronger winds possibly being brought to
the surface in the heavier rainfall. More trees may fall than
normally expected with these wind speeds given the saturated soils.

Once the line moves moves through, expect clearing skies and a wind
shift to the SW or W. Some clouds will linger through the night,
especially across the TN border counties. However, winds will
diminish through the evening in all locations. Could be some patchy
fog overnight if the winds go light enough. Lows will be a little
above normal.

W to NW winds increase with mixing Tuesday as the pressure gradient
only slowly relaxes between a departing cold front and building high
pressure. Lingering moisture along the TN border will keep clouds
and isolated showers across that area through the day. Elsewhere
expect mostly sunny skies. Highs will be near to a little below
normal as cooler air begins to move in across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM Mon: A full-latitude trough will deepen over the
eastern CONUS Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The associated
sfc low will move north out of the Great Lakes while the cold front
moves east of our CWFA. Heights will continue to fall Tuesday night
as colder air filters into the area. Moisture appears unlikely
to be sufficient for much additional precip at that time. Winds
remain westerly as opposed to NW, limiting their ability to drive
precip along the spine of the Appalachians anyway. Thus only a low
slight chance PoP is included along the Tennessee border. Temps
will be cool enough to mention a changeover from rain to snow in
the highest elevations, though it is more likely the precip will
taper off before changing over. Near-freezing temps (2-3 categories
below normal) and small dewpoint depressions imply some possibility
of frost in the mountains Wednesday morning.

Skies will be mostly clear east of the mountains Wednesday,
though temps will remain several degrees below normal. Winds will
remain generally across the Appalachians. A secondary shot of
low-level moisture is suggested by some guidance Wednesday night,
when temps will dip even colder under lighter winds and still with
little cloud cover at higher levels. However, at the present time,
confidence is too low to mention any precip in this period; frost
may return to more of the area however. Max temps will begin to
rebound Thursday as the cold advection weakens or reverses and
under a modifying airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Monday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Friday with another upper trof digging down across the Eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota and steep upper ridging building over the
West Coast. Over the next couple of days, the upper trof will
amplify as it moves eastward. The trof axis will eventually
move over the fcst area by the end of the period late Sunday
into early Monday. At the sfc, lingering high pressure will be
centered over the region while the next cold front approaches
from the west. The long range models have the front moving into
the CWFA by late Sat with the latest GFS continuing to be about
12 to 18hrs faster than the ECMWF. By early next week, the front
is expected to be east of the CWFA with high pressure spreading
back over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Line of convection is moving through the area
at this time. Ahead of the line is IFR cigs, VFR vsby, and gusty SE
wind. TSRA and heavy showers are occurring with the line along with
variably gusty winds. Behind the line is improving conditions but
gusty SW winds. Some LLWS is also occurring with the line. Have
taken these conditions and timed the movement of the line east
across the CWFA for the afternoon. Expect VFR with diminishing winds
this evening. Some fog is possible overnight, and have included MVFR
vsby in these locations. Any fog burns off quickly after daybreak
with increasing WSW wind and VFR clouds. KAVL the exception with S
wind becoming NW and remaining there through the rest of the period.

Outlook:  Drier and cooler conditions will build back into the area
behind a cold front through Thursday. Moisture will slowly return
ahead of another cold front toward next weekend.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  84%     High 100%     High  99%     High 100%
KGSP       High  90%     High 100%     High  96%     High  96%
KAVL       High  85%     High  90%     High  86%     High  96%
KHKY       Med   76%     High 100%     High 100%     High  93%
KGMU       High  84%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  92%     High 100%     High  86%     High  93%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
212 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ002-003-005>014-019-241815-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
212 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 508 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...Frost/freeze possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-004-241815-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-
212 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall will move
east of the area this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...Frost/freeze possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-241815-
Rabun-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
212 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall will move
east of the area by late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Frost/freeze possible.
..Thursday...Frost/freeze possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-501>510-241815-
Avery-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
212 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 508 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Frost/freeze possible.
..Thursday...Frost/freeze possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     TORNADO          4 NW WOODRUFF           34.78N 82.08W
10/23/2017                   SPARTANBURG        SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TWO HOUSES DAMAGED ON GREENPOND RD

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
330 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

NCZ068-508-SCZ007-008-232000-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
330 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 330 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles north of
Spartanburg to 3 miles southwest of Gaffney, and moving northeast at
25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Gaffney, Forest City, Boiling Springs NC, Cowpens, Mayo,
Chesnee, Patterson Springs, Ellenboro and Lattimore.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for western and
the Piedmont of North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3542 8186 3525 8143 3495 8167 3510 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 209DEG 23KT 3512 8190 3504 8171

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TORNADO          2 W SPARTANBURG         34.94N 81.96W
10/23/2017                   SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON W.O. EZELL
            RD.

&&

LEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E BOILING SPRINGS NC  35.25N 81.63W
10/23/2017                   CLEVELAND          NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN, SOME ON HOMES.

&&

LEC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
415 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     TORNADO          3 W ROEBUCK             34.88N 82.03W
10/23/2017                   SPARTANBURG        SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN NEAR ANDERSON MILL RD AND THE
            TYGER RIVER.

&&

LEC