Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
451 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 440 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Based on radar trends/model data, increased rainfall chances more
for Gove, Sheridan, Graham counties where thunderstorms are
expected to move. Based on the speed of the furthest west storms,
the storm activity should be east of Graham and Gove counties by
11 PM CT. There does appear to be a potential for redevelopment to
the west around 7 PM CT as the theta-e axis the increases to the
northeast. However this higher theta-e axis could be in response
to the ongoing storm development. If storms do not redevelop to
the west in the next couple of hours, storms will be east of
Graham and Gove counties by 9 PM CT.

Overnight another much weaker round of storms may move in from the
west, mainly north of Highway 36. Any storms that do develop will
not be severe and will be east of Red Willow/Norton counties by 8
AM CT. Not too confident this will occur, but wanted to atleast
put a mention of rainfall in the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Updated forecast for increased thunderstorm and severe storm
coverage across the southeastern sections of the forecast area
for the next few hours as storms continue to develop and move
generally east southeastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The forecast concerns in the short term period are the hot daytime
temperatures and the potential for some storms to become severe as
isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop and progress across the
eastern sections of the area during the afternoon and evening hours
today and again on Wednesday.

Afternoon high temperatures approaching the century mark with
dewpoints across the eastern half of the forecast area in the lower
60s will produce an unstable atmosphere east of a line from Tribune,
KS to McCook, NE,  CU developing across southwest and west central
KS along and east of a surface trough will spread across north
central KS with scattered thunderstorms expected across the area by
mid afternoon. Some storms are expected to become severe during the
late afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds.

Overnight low temperatures stay in the lower 70s around the Hill
City area with lows in the lower to mid 60s across far eastern
Colorado tonight.

Temperatures warm quickly again on Wednesday morning with afternoon
high temperatures expected around the century mark east of the
Colorado border area with upper 90s across far eastern Colorado. The
surface trough remains in place over the forecast area with storm
expected to again develop along and east of the surface trough in
the area of greater moisture and instability during the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will again move across mainly the eastern
sections of the forecast area through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Wednesday night: Strong to severe storms will continue to be
possible for eastern portions of the area through the evening,
coming to an end before midnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper
60s for most areas.

Thursday: Chance of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and
evening across much of the CWA for Thursday. SPC is currently
highlighting most of the Central High Plains under a Slight Risk for
severe weather. Damaging winds look to be the biggest risk with
DCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. A chance of showers and storms
continues through the overnight.

Friday-Tuesday: Global models still differ on timing of cold air
infiltration into the area. 12Z GFS MOS Guidance shows Saturday
night and Sunday as the coolest period, whereas the ECMWF MOS has
Saturday into Saturday night as the coolest time frame. Until there
is better agreement and consistency in the models, will continue to
take a blend of the two into Monday. This period looks to be
somewhat wet with chances of rain and thunderstorms each day.
Looking at model soundings, it is possible we will see another
round of strong to severe storms on Monday. Tuesday looks to be
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

There may be isolated thunderstorms in the area, storms should not
be part of the prevailing conditions at either MCK or GLD.  VFR
conditions are therefore expected at GLD and MCK through the TAF
period with a strong low level southerly jet to develop
overnight. This southerly jet will produce low level wind shear at
MCK and GLD between 05Z-13Z with winds a few hundred feet off the
surface out of the south at 40kts while surface winds will be
10-12kts out of the south southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1103 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1103 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 /1203 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms east of a line from
Tribune, Kansas to McCook, Nebraska as scattered thunderstorms
develop and move eastward this afternoon and evening. The primary
threats during the afternoon will be damaging winds with a transition
to damaging winds and large hail with localized heavy rain during
the late afternoon and evening east of a line from Leoti, Kansas to
Norton, Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a possibility of severe thunderstorms east of a line from
Tribune, Kansas to McCook, Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Locally
heavy rainfall may also produce isolated flash flooding.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible again Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night across the central high plains
region. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. Locally
heavy rainfall and an increased threat for flash flooding are also
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             GRINNELL                39.12N 100.63W
06/20/2017  M0.25 INCH       GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL PEA SIZED IN GRINNELL AND INCREASING TO GOLFBALL IN
            GRAINFIELD.

&&

CLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
429 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAINFIELD              39.11N 100.47W
06/20/2017  U0.00 INCH       GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAIN CAUSING VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE ON I-70. AS
            WELL AS WATER BUILDUP ON I-70 BETWEEN GRINNELL AND
            GRAINFIELD CAUSING HYDROPLANING.

&&

CLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             ANGELUS                 39.19N 100.69W
06/20/2017  E1.25 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

RHUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
504 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             TASCO                   39.35N 100.29W
06/20/2017  E1.25 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. ESTIMATED SIZED FROM SOCIAL MEDIA
            PICTURE. HAIL LASTED AROUND 15 MIN.

&&

CLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             MENLO                   39.36N 100.72W
06/20/2017  M1.25 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW QUARTER AND HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL, MOSTLY DIME AND
            NICKEL HAIL. STILL HAILING, NO RAIN.

&&

CLT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
613 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSZ029-202345-
Gove KS-
613 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

At 613 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles south of Gove to 12 miles north of
Pendennis to 8 miles southwest of Collyer. Movement was south at 20
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Gove
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 10060 3891 10059 3899 10032 3896 10015
      3870 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 350DEG 16KT 3889 10050 3883 10033 3892 10019

JRM