Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
143 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The forecast concerns in the short term period are the hot daytime
temperatures and the potential for some storms to become severe as
isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop and progress across the
eastern sections of the area during the afternoon and evening hours
today and again on Wednesday.

Afternoon high temperatures approaching the century mark with
dewpoints across the eastern half of the forecast area in the lower
60s will produce an unstable atmosphere east of a line from Tribune,
KS to McCook, NE,  CU developing across southwest and west central
KS along and east of a surface trough will spread across north
central KS with scattered thunderstorms expected across the area by
mid afternoon. Some storms are expected to become severe during the
late afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds.

Overnight low temperatures stay in the lower 70s around the Hill
City area with lows in the lower to mid 60s across far eastern
Colorado tonight.

Temperatures warm quickly again on Wednesday morning with afternoon
high temperatures expected around the century mark east of the
Colorado border area with upper 90s across far eastern Colorado. The
surface trough remains in place over the forecast area with storm
expected to again develop along and east of the surface trough in
the area of greater moisture and instability during the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will again move across mainly the eastern
sections of the forecast area through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Wednesday night: Strong to severe storms will continue to be
possible for eastern portions of the area through the evening,
coming to an end before midnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper
60s for most areas.

Thursday: Chance of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and
evening across much of the CWA for Thursday. SPC is currently
highlighting most of the Central High Plains under a Slight Risk for
severe weather. Damaging winds look to be the biggest risk with
DCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. A chance of showers and storms
continues through the overnight.

Friday-Tuesday: Global models still differ on timing of cold air
infiltration into the area. 12Z GFS MOS Guidance shows Saturday
night and Sunday as the coolest period, whereas the ECMWF MOS has
Saturday into Saturday night as the coolest time frame. Until there
is better agreement and consistency in the models, will continue to
take a blend of the two into Monday. This period looks to be
somewhat wet with chances of rain and thunderstorms each day.
Looking at model soundings, it is possible we will see another
round of strong to severe storms on Monday. Tuesday looks to be
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

There may be isolated thunderstorms in the area, storms should not
be part of the prevailing conditions at either MCK or GLD.  VFR
conditions are therefore expected at GLD and MCK through the TAF
period with a strong low level southerly jet to develop
overnight. This southerly jet will produce low level wind shear at
MCK and GLD between 05Z-13Z with winds a few hundred feet off the
surface out of the south at 40kts while surface winds will be
10-12kts out of the south southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1103 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1103 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 /1203 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms east of a line from
Tribune, Kansas to McCook, Nebraska as scattered thunderstorms
develop and move eastward this afternoon and evening. The primary
threats during the afternoon will be damaging winds with a transition
to damaging winds and large hail with localized heavy rain during
the late afternoon and evening east of a line from Leoti, Kansas to
Norton, Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a possibility of severe thunderstorms east of a line from
Tribune, Kansas to McCook, Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Locally
heavy rainfall may also produce isolated flash flooding.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible again Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night across the central high plains
region. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. Locally
heavy rainfall and an increased threat for flash flooding are also
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSZ015-029-202030-
Gove KS-Sheridan KS-
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grainfield, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quinter, Grainfield, Gove and Park.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 88 and
111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northwestern and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3878 10028 3904 10061 3921 10057 3922 10016
      3913 10016 3913 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 277DEG 18KT 3911 10049

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
308 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSZ015-202030-
Sheridan KS-
308 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northwest of Hoxie, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hoxie and Tasco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3933 10060 3950 10055 3948 10020 3922 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 283DEG 24KT 3940 10049

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSZ016-202100-
Graham KS-
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 342 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Collyer, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Peter.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northwestern and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3913 9987 3913 10016 3924 10016 3928 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 270DEG 20KT 3915 10011

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSZ029-202100-
Gove KS-
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Park, or 4 miles west of Quinter, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quinter and Park.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 99 and
113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3885 10020 3902 10045 3913 10037 3913 10021
      3912 10015 3891 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 299DEG 17KT 3907 10032

JRM

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