Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
143 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The forecast concerns in the short term period are the hot daytime
temperatures and the potential for some storms to become severe as
isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop and progress across the
eastern sections of the area during the afternoon and evening hours
today and again on Wednesday.

Afternoon high temperatures approaching the century mark with
dewpoints across the eastern half of the forecast area in the lower
60s will produce an unstable atmosphere east of a line from Tribune,
KS to McCook, NE,  CU developing across southwest and west central
KS along and east of a surface trough will spread across north
central KS with scattered thunderstorms expected across the area by
mid afternoon. Some storms are expected to become severe during the
late afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds.

Overnight low temperatures stay in the lower 70s around the Hill
City area with lows in the lower to mid 60s across far eastern
Colorado tonight.

Temperatures warm quickly again on Wednesday morning with afternoon
high temperatures expected around the century mark east of the
Colorado border area with upper 90s across far eastern Colorado. The
surface trough remains in place over the forecast area with storm
expected to again develop along and east of the surface trough in
the area of greater moisture and instability during the afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will again move across mainly the eastern
sections of the forecast area through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Wednesday night: Strong to severe storms will continue to be
possible for eastern portions of the area through the evening,
coming to an end before midnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper
60s for most areas.

Thursday: Chance of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and
evening across much of the CWA for Thursday. SPC is currently
highlighting most of the Central High Plains under a Slight Risk for
severe weather. Damaging winds look to be the biggest risk with
DCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. A chance of showers and storms
continues through the overnight.

Friday-Tuesday: Global models still differ on timing of cold air
infiltration into the area. 12Z GFS MOS Guidance shows Saturday
night and Sunday as the coolest period, whereas the ECMWF MOS has
Saturday into Saturday night as the coolest time frame. Until there
is better agreement and consistency in the models, will continue to
take a blend of the two into Monday. This period looks to be
somewhat wet with chances of rain and thunderstorms each day.
Looking at model soundings, it is possible we will see another
round of strong to severe storms on Monday. Tuesday looks to be
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

There may be isolated thunderstorms in the area, storms should not
be part of the prevailing conditions at either MCK or GLD.  VFR
conditions are therefore expected at GLD and MCK through the TAF
period with a strong low level southerly jet to develop
overnight. This southerly jet will produce low level wind shear at
MCK and GLD between 05Z-13Z with winds a few hundred feet off the
surface out of the south at 40kts while surface winds will be
10-12kts out of the south southeast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1103 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1103 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017 /1203 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Colorado...
extreme southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms east of a line from
Tribune, Kansas to McCook, Nebraska as scattered thunderstorms
develop and move eastward this afternoon and evening. The primary
threats during the afternoon will be damaging winds with a transition
to damaging winds and large hail with localized heavy rain during
the late afternoon and evening east of a line from Leoti, Kansas to
Norton, Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a possibility of severe thunderstorms east of a line from
Tribune, Kansas to McCook, Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Locally
heavy rainfall may also produce isolated flash flooding.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible again Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night across the central high plains
region. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. Locally
heavy rainfall and an increased threat for flash flooding are also
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             2 S PARK                39.08N 100.36W
06/20/2017  M1.50 INCH       GOVE               KS   COCORAHS

&&

CLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             SAINT PETER             39.19N 100.09W
06/20/2017  M1.00 INCH       GRAHAM             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
309 PM MDT TUE JUN 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             1 W TASCO               39.35N 100.31W
06/20/2017  M1.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            LOCATION WAS WEST AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF HWY 24 FROM
            TASCO, KS.

&&

CLT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
410 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSZ028-202130-
Logan KS-
410 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

At 410 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Monument, or 6 miles southwest of Oakley, moving
east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oakley and Monument.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3897 10104 3913 10100 3913 10081 3891 10081
      3888 10083
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 279DEG 19KT 3906 10093

JRM