Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Goodland, KS

October 2, 2017Graham County, Norton County, Kansas

NWS Goodland, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 2, 2017, 8:56 PM CDT for Graham County, Norton County, Kansas. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 2, 2017, 8:56 PM CDT (01:56 UTC)
Expired: Oct 2, 2017, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Goodland, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Graham County, KS, Norton County, KS

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 158 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 2, 5:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2098 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1361 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 234 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.0
Supercell composite: 10.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

180 
WUUS53 KGLD 030156
SVRGLD
KSC065-137-030245-
/O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0327.171003T0156Z-171003T0245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Goodland KS
856 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Norton County in northwestern Kansas...
  Graham County in northwestern Kansas...

* Until 945 PM CDT

* At 856 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
  of Morland, or 11 miles north of Voda, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Hill City, Morland, Bogue, Nicodemus, Densmore, Penokee and Saint
  Peter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northwestern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3913 9990 3913 10003 3926 10017 3932 10016
      3973 9969 3966 9963 3957 9963 3957 9960
      3928 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 226DEG 43KT 3922 9998 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

EV

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 2, 4:04 PM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 4:04 PM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
304 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Amplified pattern remains in place with large scale upper trough
over the western US, and southwest flow over the Central High
Plains. A stalled front is just east of our CWA, with stratus
extending west over much of our CWA. There has been a trend in
stratus beginning to break up, particularly in our southwest.

This afternoon-Tonight: There is a sharp cutoff along the frontal
zone in our east where supercell development is possible this
afternoon/evening. Deep strong shear has already developed as strong
sw flow overrides low level veering along frontal zone (mesoanalysis
shows bulk effective shear around 50kt). Short range guidance still
supports this front lifting northwest, and this could allow more
favorable air mass/instability to build into our CWA. There has been
very little movement so far, and if the front remains further south
this could limit severe threat further south and east.

Better forcing increases as a shortwave troughs the base of the
upper trough and interacts with elevated frontal zone over the rest
of our CWA. Elevated instability isn't as high, but high shear will
be in place as evening moves on. High resolution guidance continues
to indicate several clusters or linear segments forming and this may
support more of a wind threat late this evening (assuming winds are
able to penetrate stable low levels at that point).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Tuesday-Friday night: Large scale upper low will be slow to break
down, with individual closed centers breaking off across the
northern plains. Deep moisture builds with the southwest flow ahead
of the trough and with a stalled frontal zone in place we will see
increasing precip chances. Temps are particularly trick as period of
cloud cover and precip could hold highs down, while between
shortwaves we should see increasing WAA and highs closer to upper
70s/near 80F.

Sunday-Monday: Stronger upper troughs from Canada begin to drop
towards the plains during these periods. Precip chances are less
certain due to dry air mass ahead of these troughs, however we may
see the coldest air mass of the season so far reach our CWA by
Monday-Monday night and increasing frost potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Low stratus is lingering along a front southeast of both KGLD and
KMCK. As this front lifts northwest MVFR conditions will begin to
build over both terminals, with IFR possible late tonight (low
confidence on this). Current obs/model trend is to slow down the
timing, and I adjusted TAFs to reflect this. Showers/thunderstorms
are also expected to develop along this front, with coverage
increasing this evening at both terminals. Best overall chance for
lower cigs and thunderstorms will be at KMCK this evening.
Another cold front moves through the region tonight with winds
shifting to the northwest, and then conditions improving by 12Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 12:20 PM CDT, 8 hours 36 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031730-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1120 AM MDT Mon Oct 2 2017 /1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop east of
Highway 83 this afternoon, with coverage increasing across the entire
region this evening. Severe weather will be possible across the
region. The best chance for severe weather will be east of Highway
83 this afternoon and early evening, where hail greater than 2
inches, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, and a few tornadoes will
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) through
this evening.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 2, 8:27 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
727 PM MDT MON OCT 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             3 ESE YUMA              40.11N 102.67W
10/02/2017  M0.88 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

Local storm report, Oct 2, 8:31 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
731 PM MDT MON OCT 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             STRATTON NE             40.15N 101.23W
10/02/2017  M1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

Local storm report, Oct 2, 8:36 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
736 PM MDT MON OCT 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             5 ESE PARK              39.08N 100.28W
10/02/2017  M1.50 INCH       GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TLYNCH

Local storm report, Oct 2, 8:40 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
740 PM MDT MON OCT 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W GOVE                38.96N 100.55W
10/02/2017  M2.50 INCH       GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THIS RAIN OCCURRED IN A VERY SHORT TIME.

&&

MBULLER

Local storm report, Oct 2, 8:48 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT MON OCT 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUINTER                 39.07N 100.23W
10/02/2017                   GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND NUMEROUS 4 TO 6 INCH TREE
            BRANCHES DOWN ACROSS TOWN.

&&

TLYNCH

Local storm report, Oct 2, 8:56 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
756 PM MDT MON OCT 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     TSTM WND GST     QUINTER                 39.07N 100.23W
10/02/2017  E75 MPH          GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF UPROOTED TREES AND 4 TO 6 INCH TREE BRANCHES.

&&

TLYNCH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 2, 7:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Gove, Logan, Sheridan, Thomas, Wallace, Wichita	38 min
Oct 2, 7:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	GLD	Gove, Logan	29 min
Oct 2, 7:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GLD	Gove, Sheridan	35 min
Oct 2, 7:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Decatur, Gove, Graham, Logan, Sheridan, Thomas	38 min
Oct 2, 8:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne, Rawlins	47 min
Oct 2, 8:02 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Gove, Logan, Sheridan, Thomas	3 hr
Oct 2, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Rawlins	26 min
Oct 2, 8:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Decatur, Gove, Graham, Logan, Sheridan	58 min
Oct 2, 8:34 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Gove, Sheridan	6 hr
Oct 2, 9:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Gove, Graham, Logan, Sheridan	45 min
Oct 2, 9:49 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Graham	6 hr
Oct 2, 10:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Decatur, Norton, Sheridan	43 min
Oct 2, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Graham	32 min
Oct 2, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Gove, Graham, Sheridan	30 min
Oct 2, 10:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Sheridan	34 min
Oct 2, 10:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Graham	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.