Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
606 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

A few showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the
northeast part of the forecast area this afternoon. Otherwise, there
are mostly clear skies across the area and temperatures are warming
up. In the area where the clouds and thunderstorms have been, it has
been a little cooler.

The main concern will be thunderstorm development. There is an upper
level wave that will be moving into the area and a surface boundary
across the northern part of Nebraska. Models have some differences
in where and how much precipitation there will be. The morning
convection also could have some impact on thunderstorms tonight.
Expect the thunderstorms to continue across the northern part of the
forecast area as thunderstorms develop along the boundary to the
north and move into the area during the late afternoon and evening.
The boundary sags to the south during the night and as another upper
level wave moves into the area, there could be some more development
to the west of the forecast area and those could move into the area
during the overnight hours. With all the differences in the models,
the confidence is a little shaky.

There could be a few lingering thunderstorms in the morning, but
otherwise expect mainly dry conditions. The upper level wave will
continue to move through the area and during the afternoon a few
thunderstorms could develop. The models continue to have some
differences for this time frame and there is some uncertainty.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

The models are a little more consistent for the Monday night time
frame. The NAM is dry, but the GFS and ECMWF both have precipitation
across the area. This looks to be the best time frame for
precipitation, especially during the evening. Precipitation should
linger into the overnight hours.

Tuesday into Tuesday night there continues to be a couple of upper
level waves that move through the area with on and off chances for
thunderstorms. The upper level ridge builds just to the west and
moves into the area Wednesday through Thursday. This will be a dry
period with warm temperatures.

Thursday night through Sunday there are a few waves that come over
the ridge. With each wave, there is a chance for some thunderstorms
to develop somewhere across the forecast area. These are small
chances for only parts of the forecast area and expect mainly hit
and miss showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

The main concern for the TAF period is thunderstorm chances the
next 24 hours. Latest radar trends and short term models keep the
brunt of the convection generally west of Highway 281 this evening
into tonight and activity may remain west of KEAR, however do have
a mention of VCTS for KEAR for much of the evening in closer
proximity to the convection and will monitor trends. A shortwave
trough translating across the Central Plains will bring continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms into Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Fay

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
031200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
526 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening and into the
overnight hours. Severe storms are possible which may produce hail
to the size of golf balls and damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Spotty thunderstorms will be possible at various times and
locations Monday and Tuesday, with the best chance Monday night.
Some storms Monday night could be severe with the main threat
locally damaging winds.

Intermittent thunderstorms are possible Thursday night through
Saturday. While strong or severe storms cannot be ruled out...it
is too early to identify any specific organized threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and into tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ082-083-030500-
Harlan NE-Furnas NE-
1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FURNAS AND HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1115 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Huntley to near Woodruff. Movement was
east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.  The
strong winds extend behind the line of storms to the west across
Furnas County.

Locations impacted include...
Alma, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Orleans, Holbrook,
Stamford, Republican City, Edison, Wilsonville, Huntley, Ragan,
Hendley, Hollinger and Harlan County Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Hastings.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
north central Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4033 10018 4034 9920 4015 9918 4000 9918
      4000 9927 4001 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0415Z 276DEG 16KT 4024 9936 4002 9946

Fay

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1125 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W LOGAN               39.66N 99.58W
07/02/2017  M71 MPH          PHILLIPS           KS   MESONET

&&

REED

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