Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
606 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

A few showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the
northeast part of the forecast area this afternoon. Otherwise, there
are mostly clear skies across the area and temperatures are warming
up. In the area where the clouds and thunderstorms have been, it has
been a little cooler.

The main concern will be thunderstorm development. There is an upper
level wave that will be moving into the area and a surface boundary
across the northern part of Nebraska. Models have some differences
in where and how much precipitation there will be. The morning
convection also could have some impact on thunderstorms tonight.
Expect the thunderstorms to continue across the northern part of the
forecast area as thunderstorms develop along the boundary to the
north and move into the area during the late afternoon and evening.
The boundary sags to the south during the night and as another upper
level wave moves into the area, there could be some more development
to the west of the forecast area and those could move into the area
during the overnight hours. With all the differences in the models,
the confidence is a little shaky.

There could be a few lingering thunderstorms in the morning, but
otherwise expect mainly dry conditions. The upper level wave will
continue to move through the area and during the afternoon a few
thunderstorms could develop. The models continue to have some
differences for this time frame and there is some uncertainty.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

The models are a little more consistent for the Monday night time
frame. The NAM is dry, but the GFS and ECMWF both have precipitation
across the area. This looks to be the best time frame for
precipitation, especially during the evening. Precipitation should
linger into the overnight hours.

Tuesday into Tuesday night there continues to be a couple of upper
level waves that move through the area with on and off chances for
thunderstorms. The upper level ridge builds just to the west and
moves into the area Wednesday through Thursday. This will be a dry
period with warm temperatures.

Thursday night through Sunday there are a few waves that come over
the ridge. With each wave, there is a chance for some thunderstorms
to develop somewhere across the forecast area. These are small
chances for only parts of the forecast area and expect mainly hit
and miss showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

The main concern for the TAF period is thunderstorm chances the
next 24 hours. Latest radar trends and short term models keep the
brunt of the convection generally west of Highway 281 this evening
into tonight and activity may remain west of KEAR, however do have
a mention of VCTS for KEAR for much of the evening in closer
proximity to the convection and will monitor trends. A shortwave
trough translating across the Central Plains will bring continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms into Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Fay

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
031200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
526 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening and into the
overnight hours. Severe storms are possible which may produce hail
to the size of golf balls and damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Spotty thunderstorms will be possible at various times and
locations Monday and Tuesday, with the best chance Monday night.
Some storms Monday night could be severe with the main threat
locally damaging winds.

Intermittent thunderstorms are possible Thursday night through
Saturday. While strong or severe storms cannot be ruled out...it
is too early to identify any specific organized threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and into tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
915 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ061-030245-
Buffalo NE-
915 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BUFFALO COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

At 915 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Miller, or 19 miles northwest of Kearney, moving south at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amherst and Miller.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 9940 4101 9911 4080 9908 4083 9939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0215Z 356DEG 9KT 4095 9927

Fay

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
921 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE CAMBRIDGE         40.31N 100.15W
07/02/2017  M72 MPH          FURNAS             NE   MESONET

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
928 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ073-083-030315-
Phelps NE-Harlan NE-
928 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PHELPS AND WESTERN HARLAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 927 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking severe thunderstorms along
a line extending from Smithfield to near Arapahoe to near
Wilsonville. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Ping pong ball size hail and winds in excess of 60 mph will be
possible with these storms.

People in western Phelps and western Harlan Counties should monitor
the weather situation closely.  A warning may be needed if the storms
move into the area.  Be ready to seek shelter if severe weather
threatens.

LAT...LON 4068 9964 4066 9935 4003 9943 4003 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 313DEG 26KT 4059 9976 4038 9986 4019 10006

Fay

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HAIL             6 N HOLBROOK            40.39N 100.01W
07/02/2017  E1.00 INCH       GOSPER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1007 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HAIL             3 E HOLBROOK            40.31N 99.96W
07/02/2017  E1.25 INCH       FURNAS             NE   STORM CHASER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 67 MPH WIND GUSTS.
            HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1008 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     HAIL             HOLBROOK                40.31N 100.01W
07/02/2017  E1.00 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL
            TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

&&

REED