Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
606 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

A few showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the
northeast part of the forecast area this afternoon. Otherwise, there
are mostly clear skies across the area and temperatures are warming
up. In the area where the clouds and thunderstorms have been, it has
been a little cooler.

The main concern will be thunderstorm development. There is an upper
level wave that will be moving into the area and a surface boundary
across the northern part of Nebraska. Models have some differences
in where and how much precipitation there will be. The morning
convection also could have some impact on thunderstorms tonight.
Expect the thunderstorms to continue across the northern part of the
forecast area as thunderstorms develop along the boundary to the
north and move into the area during the late afternoon and evening.
The boundary sags to the south during the night and as another upper
level wave moves into the area, there could be some more development
to the west of the forecast area and those could move into the area
during the overnight hours. With all the differences in the models,
the confidence is a little shaky.

There could be a few lingering thunderstorms in the morning, but
otherwise expect mainly dry conditions. The upper level wave will
continue to move through the area and during the afternoon a few
thunderstorms could develop. The models continue to have some
differences for this time frame and there is some uncertainty.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

The models are a little more consistent for the Monday night time
frame. The NAM is dry, but the GFS and ECMWF both have precipitation
across the area. This looks to be the best time frame for
precipitation, especially during the evening. Precipitation should
linger into the overnight hours.

Tuesday into Tuesday night there continues to be a couple of upper
level waves that move through the area with on and off chances for
thunderstorms. The upper level ridge builds just to the west and
moves into the area Wednesday through Thursday. This will be a dry
period with warm temperatures.

Thursday night through Sunday there are a few waves that come over
the ridge. With each wave, there is a chance for some thunderstorms
to develop somewhere across the forecast area. These are small
chances for only parts of the forecast area and expect mainly hit
and miss showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

The main concern for the TAF period is thunderstorm chances the
next 24 hours. Latest radar trends and short term models keep the
brunt of the convection generally west of Highway 281 this evening
into tonight and activity may remain west of KEAR, however do have
a mention of VCTS for KEAR for much of the evening in closer
proximity to the convection and will monitor trends. A shortwave
trough translating across the Central Plains will bring continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms into Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Fay

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
031200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
526 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening and into the
overnight hours. Severe storms are possible which may produce hail
to the size of golf balls and damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Spotty thunderstorms will be possible at various times and
locations Monday and Tuesday, with the best chance Monday night.
Some storms Monday night could be severe with the main threat
locally damaging winds.

Intermittent thunderstorms are possible Thursday night through
Saturday. While strong or severe storms cannot be ruled out...it
is too early to identify any specific organized threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and into tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ041-048-022100-
Merrick NE-Nance NE-
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NANCE AND
NORTHEASTERN MERRICK COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fullerton, or 31 miles west of Columbus, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 9783 4125 9807 4134 9800 4130 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 307DEG 13KT 4130 9794

Fay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
419 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ039-040-022145-
Valley NE-Greeley NE-
419 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GREELEY AND
NORTHEASTERN VALLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ord, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Greeley and northeastern Valley Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9896 4174 9877 4158 9863 4154 9888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 321DEG 12KT 4165 9884

Fay

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
432 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             5 ENE ORD               41.63N 98.84W
07/02/2017  M1.00 INCH       VALLEY             NE   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA TWITTER.

&&

REED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
436 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NEZ039-022200-
Valley NE-
436 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VALLEY COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 436 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burwell, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elyria and Fort Hartsuff State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9896 4165 9893 4164 9918 4174 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 336DEG 7KT 4172 9911

Fay

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