Severe Thunderstorm Warning 297, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again ongoing across a
good chunk of North and Central Texas. Most of the activity is now
centered south of the Metroplex from near Killeen to Waco to
Palestine where a remnant outflow boundary is helping to focus
some development. This area has also warmed into the mid/upper 90s
thanks to little cloud cover from morning convection.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue through the remainder of
the afternoon into the early evening hours before diminishing in
coverage and intensity. Slow moving pulse severe storms are
possible with primarily a damaging wind threat along with nearly
continuous cloud to ground lightning. Highest PoPs through early
evening will be focused in the area south of I-20.

On Monday, a broad weakness will persist in the mid level height
fields as a weak trough moves in from the east. Ample moisture
will remain in place to kick off another round of scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however strengthening
southwesterly flow at 850mb will spread into our western counties
by afternoon. This suggests that the majority of the activity
Monday afternoon may be confined to areas east of I-35 as
increasing convective inhibition spreads into our western
counties. We'll maintain 20-30% PoPs across the eastern half of
the region.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, coverage of afternoon
showers and storms will likely be on the decrease as the main
ridge axis begins to shift eastward into the Southern Plains.
There will still be a weakness in the heights across parts of our
area as a westerly moving trough nudges under the ridge. However,
right now it appears that most of the isolated convection will be
associated with sea breeze activity and better moisture across our
far eastern counties. The only exception would again be if
vigorous convection on Monday reinvigorates the weak upper trough
allowing the ridge to remain farther off to the west. These
scenarios are generally not well forecast by the models and we
probably wouldn't have a good idea about that potential until
sometime late tomorrow. In the meantime, we'll keep PoPs at 20%
for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons across our southeastern
counties.

The middle to latter part of the week looks like it will remain
dry although the center of the ridge axis never makes it into the
central and southern Plains. This means that we'll still be on the
eastern periphery, although northerly flow will generally be
weaker. We'll keep the forecast dry for Thursday and Friday and
then bring low rain chances back into the forecast for the
weekend. There is some indication that we'll get back into a more
active northerly flow scenario on Sunday into Monday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 103 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/
Thunderstorm complex continues to slowly move south with a general
weakening trend. While some light to occasionally moderate
rainfall continues from KLUD to KTKI, the outflow has already
raced well ahead of the complex, and is currently located from
KMWL to KLNC to KGVT. This will be the boundary which will be a
major player in who does, or does not, see additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon. As temperatures continue to heat up,
thunderstorms will bubble up along and just south of this
boundary, with the greatest potential for thunderstorms just south
of the Metroplex terminals. Scattered thunderstorms are still
possible through 4 PM in the metroplex, with only VCTS mentioned
along with the VFR ceilings. Cornerposts into the airports will
continue to be affected this afternoon, as the northern portions
of the airspace are affected now, and the southern cornerposts
likely to be affected this afternoon.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  95  77  96  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
Waco                75  95  75  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
Paris               72  91  73  92  73 /  20  20   5  10   5
Denton              74  94  75  95  76 /  10  20  10  10   5
McKinney            74  92  75  94  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
Dallas              77  95  78  95  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
Terrell             74  92  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
Corsicana           74  93  75  94  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
Temple              74  97  74  96  74 /  30  30  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       73  95  73  96  74 /  20  20   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
332 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the evening hours,
especially south of Interstate 20. Some storms could produce
damaging wind gusts. The main hazards will be heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday, generally along and east of Interstate 35/35W.
Similar to the last few days, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
and frequent lightning are the main threats. Some hail may also occur
with stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Fox

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
517 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ117-092245-
Parker TX-
517 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARKER COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 517 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Annetta, or 12 miles northeast of Granbury, moving
east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Parker
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 9755 3255 9755 3255 9765 3256 9770
      3261 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 267DEG 10KT 3257 9765

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORBET                  32.02N  96.53W
07/09/2017                   NAVARRO            TX   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE CORBET AREA.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
521 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ162-092245-
Leon TX-
521 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Centerville, or 22 miles northwest of
Madisonville, moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marquez and Leona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 9622 3123 9628 3131 9606 3116 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 247DEG 7KT 3118 9618

58

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
529 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ117-118-131-133-092300-
Hood TX-Parker TX-Tarrant TX-Johnson TX-
529 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
SOUTHEASTERN PARKER...SOUTHWESTERN TARRANT AND NORTHEASTERN HOOD
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 529 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Godley, or 10 miles southwest of Benbrook, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cresson and Benbrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Lake Benbrook get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 9766 3258 9772 3270 9748 3251 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 249DEG 11KT 3257 9757

58

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>