Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Fort Worth, TX

188 
WWUS54 KFWD 092005
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXC001-213-092030-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0293.000000T0000Z-170709T2030Z/
Henderson TX-Anderson TX-
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES...

At 304 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest of
Frankston, or 16 miles north of Palestine, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Frankston, Berryville, Coffee City, Poynor and Moore Station. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately.

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 9578 3219 9546 3215 9548 3205 9542
      3199 9545 3189 9543 3186 9545 3185 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 192DEG 10KT 3200 9565 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Dunn

953 
WWUS54 KFWD 092027
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXC001-213-092037-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0293.000000T0000Z-170709T2030Z/
Henderson TX-Anderson TX-
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits therefore the warning will be allowed to expire. Gusty winds 
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3216 9578 3219 9546 3215 9548 3205 9542
      3199 9545 3189 9543 3186 9545 3185 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 193DEG 11KT 3207 9563 

$$

Dunn

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
103 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm complex continues to slowly move south with a general
weakening trend. While some light to occasionally moderate
rainfall continues from KLUD to KTKI, the outflow has already
raced well ahead of the complex, and is currently located from
KMWL to KLNC to KGVT. This will be the boundary which will be a
major player in who does, or does not, see additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon. As temperatures continue to heat up,
thunderstorms will bubble up along and just south of this
boundary, with the greatest potential for thunderstorms just south
of the Metroplex terminals. Scattered thunderstorms are still
possible through 4 PM in the metroplex, with only VCTS mentioned
along with the VFR ceilings. Cornerposts into the airports will
continue to be affected this afternoon, as the northern portions
of the airspace are affected now, and the southern cornerposts
likely to be affected this afternoon.

Fox

&&

.UPDATE... /Issued 1011 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/
Cluster of showers and thunderstorms near the Red River is making
slow southward progress, although an outflow boundary has pushed
off of the convection which should mean a gradual weakening. As
the boundary continues to slide southward, convergence along the
feature should help ignite new convection, especially later this
afternoon during peak heating. We'll make some adjustments to PoPs
based on the latest radar trends through the remainder of the
morning with the highest chances across the northern two rows of
counties. Later this afternoon, better chances will shift to the
south with the southward moving outflow boundary. This should be
positioned somewhere just south of the Metroplex by early
afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/
North and Central Texas currently sits between an upper ridge over
the Four-Corners region and a broad trough over the eastern half
of the CONUS. The resulting north flow aloft continues to produce
southward-moving upper level disturbances across the Central and
Southern Plains. One upper disturbance over Oklahoma will drop
southward today, generating another round of scattered convection
across the forecast area.

Storms may be ongoing across the north and northwest counties this
morning as convection north of the Red River slowly moves south.
At this time, morning POPs in this area are in the slight chance
category, but if storm clusters in northwest Oklahoma hold
together, POPs may need to be increased across the northwest. For
the rest of the region, convection will be more likely this
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. The likelihood of severe
weather is fairly low, though an isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out. We will also need to monitor the threat for
isolated flash flooding. PWATs are forecast to approach 2 inches
across a good portion of the region, and though coverage should
remain scattered, storms will be efficient rain-producers.

Otherwise, high temperatures today should remain slightly lower
than the past several days to a slight uptick in convection and
likely presence of multiple outflow boundaries. Activity will
decrease after sunset, but slight chance POPs will be kept through
mid evening to account for lingering storms.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/
/Monday through Saturday/

The upper level ridge will continue to play a significant factor
in the weather pattern through the remainder of the week. There
are still low chances for rain Monday through Wednesday over parts
of the region, but the increasing heat along with elevated
humidity levels will result in some high heat index values during
the middle of the week.

On Monday, the upper level ridge will start to build east, taking
up residence over most of the southern half of the country by
Tuesday. However, an inverted trough will skirt west across the
state Monday night and Tuesday, on the southern periphery of the
ridge. On Monday, isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected across a little more than the eastern half of the region.
Better chances for rain are expected in the southeastern
counties. As we have experienced the past several days, 1-2 strong
or severe storms will be possible with threats for strong/damaging
winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Lapse rates are not
very steep, but some hail may also occur. On Tuesday, as the inverted
trough moves across the region there is a chance for rain in
nearly the same location, and an isolated strong or severe storm
will again be possible. On Wednesday, will maintain a slight
chance for rain over our southeastern counties where the sea
breeze may bring a few showers or storms late in the day. The
remainder of the forecast is currently dry through the end of the
week, but low rain chances may return to at least the eastern
portions of North and Central Texas late in the week if the upper
level ridge shifts west.

Above normal temperatures are expected this week with daytime
highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Currently, I do not have
triple digits forecasted at DFW or Waco, but it's not entirely out
of the question by Thursday. Humidity values this week are
expected to remain elevated across roughly the eastern half of the
region where higher moisture values are forecast. The combination
of heat and humidity will result in heat index values reaching
105-110 degrees in some locations Tuesday through Thursday, and
we may see the most dangerous heat index values on Thursday.
Afternoon winds of 5-10 mph along and east of Interstate 35 (on
the western side of a surface high pressure centered in the
Southeastern US) will not provide much relief from the heat. We
will closely watch the temperatures and heat index values as we
approach the middle of the week, assessing the need for a Heat
Advisory.

A shift in the upper level ridge back west is forecast for the
weekend as a strong disturbance moving through the Great Lakes
induces upper level troughing to our northeast. This overall
pattern shift should allow for at least a brief respite from the
heat, and possibly the return of some rain chances over the
weekend.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  77  97  77  97 /  30  20  20  20  10
Waco                95  75  98  76  97 /  50  20  20  20  20
Paris               89  72  92  73  93 /  40  20  20  20  20
Denton              93  74  96  76  96 /  30  20  10  10  10
McKinney            91  74  95  75  95 /  30  20  20  20  10
Dallas              94  78  97  78  97 /  30  20  20  20  10
Terrell             93  74  96  75  95 /  40  20  20  20  20
Corsicana           91  73  96  75  96 /  50  20  20  20  20
Temple              95  74  98  75  97 /  30  20  30  20  20
Mineral Wells       95  73  97  74  98 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

14/91

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
305 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
305 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across most of North and Central
Texas today into this evening. The best chances will be along and
east of the Interstate 35 corridor, with most storms occurring during
the afternoon and early evening hours. An isolated damaging wind
threat will exist in the strongest storms. Small hail, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rain can also be expected in the stronger
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and
east of a line from Sherman to Fort Worth to Hamilton to Lometa on
Monday and Tuesday. Similar to the last few days, one or two strong
or severe storms will be possible with damaging winds, heavy rainfall
and frequent lightning being the main threats. Some hail may also
occur with stronger storms.

There is a slight chance for storms south of an Athens to Waco to
Killeen line Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ159-091930-
McLennan TX-
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MCLENNAN COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

At 201 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Woodway, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waco, Hewitt, Robinson, Bellmead, Woodway, Lacy-Lakeview, McGregor,
Beverly Hills, Lorena, Bruceville-Eddy, Riesel, Crawford, Golinda,
Hallsburg, Northcrest, Leroy and Ross.

LAT...LON 3129 9727 3157 9745 3177 9706 3149 9688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 235DEG 9KT 3152 9725

Dunn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
207 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ134-091930-
Ellis TX-
207 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Palmer, or near Red Oak. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waxahachie, Ennis, Glenn Heights, Red Oak, Ovilla, Ferris, Palmer,
Oak Leaf, Garrett and Pecan Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 9652 3229 9694 3255 9689 3254 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 344DEG 4KT 3245 9674

Dunn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
224 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ148-092015-
Anderson TX-
224 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ANDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

At 223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Palestine, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Palestine, Frankston and Berryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3159 9572 3162 9571 3165 9575 3160 9577
      3163 9580 3168 9578 3169 9586 3174 9587
      3177 9592 3186 9599 3187 9598 3187 9597
      3190 9602 3191 9600 3194 9602 3209 9543
      3196 9545 3193 9542 3185 9545 3175 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 244DEG 10KT 3180 9566

Dunn