Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again ongoing across a
good chunk of North and Central Texas. Most of the activity is now
centered south of the Metroplex from near Killeen to Waco to
Palestine where a remnant outflow boundary is helping to focus
some development. This area has also warmed into the mid/upper 90s
thanks to little cloud cover from morning convection.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue through the remainder of
the afternoon into the early evening hours before diminishing in
coverage and intensity. Slow moving pulse severe storms are
possible with primarily a damaging wind threat along with nearly
continuous cloud to ground lightning. Highest PoPs through early
evening will be focused in the area south of I-20.

On Monday, a broad weakness will persist in the mid level height
fields as a weak trough moves in from the east. Ample moisture
will remain in place to kick off another round of scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, however strengthening
southwesterly flow at 850mb will spread into our western counties
by afternoon. This suggests that the majority of the activity
Monday afternoon may be confined to areas east of I-35 as
increasing convective inhibition spreads into our western
counties. We'll maintain 20-30% PoPs across the eastern half of
the region.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, coverage of afternoon
showers and storms will likely be on the decrease as the main
ridge axis begins to shift eastward into the Southern Plains.
There will still be a weakness in the heights across parts of our
area as a westerly moving trough nudges under the ridge. However,
right now it appears that most of the isolated convection will be
associated with sea breeze activity and better moisture across our
far eastern counties. The only exception would again be if
vigorous convection on Monday reinvigorates the weak upper trough
allowing the ridge to remain farther off to the west. These
scenarios are generally not well forecast by the models and we
probably wouldn't have a good idea about that potential until
sometime late tomorrow. In the meantime, we'll keep PoPs at 20%
for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons across our southeastern
counties.

The middle to latter part of the week looks like it will remain
dry although the center of the ridge axis never makes it into the
central and southern Plains. This means that we'll still be on the
eastern periphery, although northerly flow will generally be
weaker. We'll keep the forecast dry for Thursday and Friday and
then bring low rain chances back into the forecast for the
weekend. There is some indication that we'll get back into a more
active northerly flow scenario on Sunday into Monday.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 103 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017/
Thunderstorm complex continues to slowly move south with a general
weakening trend. While some light to occasionally moderate
rainfall continues from KLUD to KTKI, the outflow has already
raced well ahead of the complex, and is currently located from
KMWL to KLNC to KGVT. This will be the boundary which will be a
major player in who does, or does not, see additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon. As temperatures continue to heat up,
thunderstorms will bubble up along and just south of this
boundary, with the greatest potential for thunderstorms just south
of the Metroplex terminals. Scattered thunderstorms are still
possible through 4 PM in the metroplex, with only VCTS mentioned
along with the VFR ceilings. Cornerposts into the airports will
continue to be affected this afternoon, as the northern portions
of the airspace are affected now, and the southern cornerposts
likely to be affected this afternoon.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  95  77  96  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
Waco                75  95  75  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
Paris               72  91  73  92  73 /  20  20   5  10   5
Denton              74  94  75  95  76 /  10  20  10  10   5
McKinney            74  92  75  94  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
Dallas              77  95  78  95  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
Terrell             74  92  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
Corsicana           74  93  75  94  75 /  30  30  10  20  10
Temple              74  97  74  96  74 /  30  30  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       73  95  73  96  74 /  20  20   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
332 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the evening hours,
especially south of Interstate 20. Some storms could produce
damaging wind gusts. The main hazards will be heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday, generally along and east of Interstate 35/35W.
Similar to the last few days, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
and frequent lightning are the main threats. Some hail may also occur
with stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Fox

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
449 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ122-092215-
Van Zandt TX-
449 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Canton, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 9594 3247 9608 3258 9608 3266 9604
      3262 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 202DEG 5KT 3252 9599

58

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
451 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ147-092215-
Freestone TX-
451 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FREESTONE COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Teague. This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Teague and Kirvin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 9623 3150 9630 3168 9642 3177 9634
      3164 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 312DEG 2KT 3169 9635

58

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
455 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

TXZ131-132-092230-
Hood TX-Somervell TX-
455 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SOMERVELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dinosaur Valley State Park, or 7 miles south of Granbury. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pecan Plantation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3237 9785 3242 9773 3229 9764 3226 9778
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 312DEG 2KT 3233 9777

58