Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Grand Forks, ND

482 
WWUS53 KFGF 050418
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDC017-097-050445-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170705T0445Z/
Cass ND-Traill ND-
1118 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS AND SOUTH CENTRAL TRAILL COUNTIES...

At 1118 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Gardner, or 20
miles northwest of Fargo, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Gardner around 1125 PM CDT. 
  Argusville around 1130 PM CDT. 

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 77 and 96.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4709 9727 4730 9721 4729 9693 4702 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 281DEG 26KT 4712 9706 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gust

697 
WWUS53 KFGF 050437
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDC097-050446-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170705T0445Z/
Traill ND-
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TRAILL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has Moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4707 9717 4723 9720 4724 9695 4724 9692
      4702 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 279DEG 19KT 4705 9692 

$$

NDC017-050445-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170705T0445Z/
Cass ND-
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY...

At 1136 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Argusville, or
13 miles north of Fargo, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Cass County.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 77 and 92.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4707 9717 4723 9720 4724 9695 4724 9692
      4702 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 279DEG 19KT 4705 9692 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gust

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
915 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Line of pulse severe storms has developed across the area over the
last 3 hours with the strongest storms now stretching northeast
from around Mayville to Thief River Falls. Expecting activity to
continue to the southeast with a decreasing overall severe threat
as convective inhibition increases with sundown. Forecast updates
are minor with tweaks to match current obs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Main challenge tonight will be thunderstorms. Latest high
resolution guidance still develops storms in the 4-5 pm time frame
over the northern Red River Valley, then drops them SSE through
the evening. Looking at the SPC meso page, the northern valley
is closer to the better 0-6km bulk shear, at roughly 30 knots.
Values decrease moving southward, more in the 20-25 knot range at
most. Temps have risen in the mid 80s to lower 90s region wide,
with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. SPC meso page shows sfc
based CAPE values in the 4000-4500 J/kg range, but some CIN
remaining. 700mb temps are about 9-10C over central ND near the
boundary, so that is why not much is happening yet.

Still expecting the window for storms in GF/EGF to be from 6-9 pm
and for the FM area to be from 8-11 pm. Once the storms develop,
will see if this timing stills hold true. If so, storms may
impact later evening outdoor holiday events across the southern
half of the FA, while the north may be done by then. Looking ahead
into Wednesday, it appears the boundary will sag southward to the
fringes of the southern and southeast FA. Depending on where
exactly this boundary sets up and how much heating occurs after
the early morning clouds, there could be strong storms around
again. SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk, but will focus
more on this potential after tonights event is done.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

More storm chances for the beginning of the period will be the main
concern for the end of the week and through the weekend.

Global models are coming into better agreement with storm potential
for the Wednesday night/early Thursday time frame. A weak surface
trough with some upper level support looks to be the main forcing
mechanism for convective development by Wednesday evening and
tracking east-southeastward into Thursday morning. Instability looks
to be fairly decent (1500-2500 J/kg) given the time of day with
shear profiles a bit more favorable (35-45 kts) than Tuesday's
event. Therefore, agree with SPC's thinking of a marginal
risk/borderline slight risk is reasonable at this time.

Following any lingering precipitation chances early Thursday, the
rest of the week looks to be relatively dry and quiet. Models
continue to diverge on their synoptic features for the weekend with
the GFS bringing precipitation chances back to the area on Saturday
while the ECMWF and Canadian remain dry. The same goes for any
chances early in the new work week with the ECMWF holding on to its
high and dry solution.

Temperatures will cool down just a bit following the Wednesday
night/Thursday system with highs on Friday back down into the 70s
area wide while ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to from along a line from GFK to the
southwest in the next 2 hours. This activity is expected to move
to the southeast over the next 6 hours with VFR conditions
hereafter.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A weak surface trough will move into eastern North Dakota this
afternoon. Thunderstorms will most likely develop in southern
Manitoba and move into northeastern North Dakota...then spread
south along the front. Isolated severe storms with hail up to 2
inches in diameter and winds up to 70 mph are possible. The threat
for tornadoes is low, but possible. Coverage of these storms will
be isolated and begin to decay by late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms to develop late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. No hazardous weather is expected
the remainder of the week beyond noontime Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

Speicher

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
848 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             EUCLID                  47.97N 96.64W
07/04/2017  E1.50 INCH       POLK               MN   STORM CHASER

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
855 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             4 W HANNAFORD           47.31N 98.27W
07/04/2017  E2.50 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

            BROKEN WINDOWS REPORTED. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
913 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             8 NE STEPHEN            48.53N 96.75W
07/04/2017  E2.50 INCH       MARSHALL           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PHOTO AND REPORT POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             2 NNW LEAL              47.13N 98.33W
07/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1001 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             5 E BUXTON              47.60N 96.99W
07/04/2017  E2.00 INCH       TRAILL             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1024 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             4 SSW SIBLEY            47.16N 98.00W
07/04/2017  E1.75 INCH       BARNES             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL NEAR WEST END OF LAKE ASTABULA AND SIBLEY CROSSING.
            REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

GGUST