Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Grand Forks, ND

349 
WWUS53 KFGF 050142
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
842 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDC003-017-039-091-097-050152-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-170705T0200Z/
Cass ND-Traill ND-Griggs ND-Barnes ND-Steele ND-
842 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS...
SOUTHWESTERN TRAILL...SOUTHEASTERN GRIGGS...NORTHEASTERN BARNES AND
SOUTHERN STEELE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4715 9714 4687 9776 4731 9808 4754 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 317DEG 21KT 4733 9751 4717 9783 

$$

Lee

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
617 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Issued a severe thunderstorm watch for much of the area with the
exclusion of Devils Lake Basin and Grant county until midnight.
Most likley scenario to unfold this evening is expected to be a
round of storms developing over the next hour or two. This
activity is expected to propagate to the southeast with severe
threats being large hail, up to 2 inches in size and damaging
downburst winds with speeds up to 70mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Main challenge tonight will be thunderstorms. Latest high
resolution guidance still develops storms in the 4-5 pm time frame
over the northern Red River Valley, then drops them SSE through
the evening. Looking at the SPC meso page, the northern valley
is closer to the better 0-6km bulk shear, at roughly 30 knots.
Values decrease moving southward, more in the 20-25 knot range at
most. Temps have risen in the mid 80s to lower 90s region wide,
with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. SPC meso page shows sfc
based CAPE values in the 4000-4500 J/kg range, but some CIN
remaining. 700mb temps are about 9-10C over central ND near the
boundary, so that is why not much is happening yet.

Still expecting the window for storms in GF/EGF to be from 6-9 pm
and for the FM area to be from 8-11 pm. Once the storms develop,
will see if this timing stills hold true. If so, storms may
impact later evening outdoor holiday events across the southern
half of the FA, while the north may be done by then. Looking ahead
into Wednesday, it appears the boundary will sag southward to the
fringes of the southern and southeast FA. Depending on where
exactly this boundary sets up and how much heating occurs after
the early morning clouds, there could be strong storms around
again. SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk, but will focus
more on this potential after tonights event is done.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

More storm chances for the beginning of the period will be the main
concern for the end of the week and through the weekend.

Global models are coming into better agreement with storm potential
for the Wednesday night/early Thursday time frame. A weak surface
trough with some upper level support looks to be the main forcing
mechanism for convective development by Wednesday evening and
tracking east-southeastward into Thursday morning. Instability looks
to be fairly decent (1500-2500 J/kg) given the time of day with
shear profiles a bit more favorable (35-45 kts) than Tuesday's
event. Therefore, agree with SPC's thinking of a marginal
risk/borderline slight risk is reasonable at this time.

Following any lingering precipitation chances early Thursday, the
rest of the week looks to be relatively dry and quiet. Models
continue to diverge on their synoptic features for the weekend with
the GFS bringing precipitation chances back to the area on Saturday
while the ECMWF and Canadian remain dry. The same goes for any
chances early in the new work week with the ECMWF holding on to its
high and dry solution.

Temperatures will cool down just a bit following the Wednesday
night/Thursday system with highs on Friday back down into the 70s
area wide while ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to from along a line from GFK to the
southwest in the next 2 hours. This activity is expected to move
to the southeast over the next 6 hours with VFR conditions
hereafter.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A weak surface trough will move into eastern North Dakota this
afternoon. Thunderstorms will most likely develop in southern
Manitoba and move into northeastern North Dakota...then spread
south along the front. Isolated severe storms with hail up to 2
inches in diameter and winds up to 70 mph are possible. The threat
for tornadoes is low, but possible. Coverage of these storms will
be isolated and begin to decay by late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms to develop late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. No hazardous weather is expected
the remainder of the week beyond noontime Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

Speicher

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
734 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

MNZ001-NDZ027-050100-
West Polk MN-Grand Forks ND-
734 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL POLK AND EAST
CENTRAL GRAND FORKS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Grand Forks, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Forks, East Grand Forks, Fisher, Merrifield, Mallory, Bygland
and Davidson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4784 9719 4798 9717 4802 9673 4777 9677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 274DEG 19KT 4791 9710

Lee

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
740 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ027-029-030-050115-
Steele ND-Traill ND-Grand Forks ND-
740 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAND FORKS...
NORTHWESTERN TRAILL AND NORTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

At 739 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Northwood, or 27 miles southwest of Grand Forks, moving east at 35
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwood, Hatton, Buxton, Reynolds, Cummings and Holmes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern and northeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4763 9765 4774 9762 4775 9704 4750 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 277DEG 29KT 4768 9755

Lee

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
741 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             GRAND FORKS             47.92N 97.07W
07/04/2017  E0.50 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL OBSERVED AT AND WITHIN ONE HALF
            MILE OF NWS OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
751 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             3 WSW HANNAFORD         47.30N 98.25W
07/04/2017  E1.25 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
801 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             FLORIAN                 48.44N 96.63W
07/04/2017  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           MN   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
808 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             1 NW THOMPSON           47.79N 97.12W
07/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT