Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Grand Forks, ND

551 
WWUS53 KFGF 050229
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
929 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

MNC027-087-NDC017-050238-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170705T0245Z/
Clay MN-Mahnomen MN-Cass ND-
929 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY...
NORTHWESTERN MAHNOMEN AND NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and southeastern and northeastern North
Dakota.

LAT...LON 4729 9690 4757 9721 4803 9649 4771 9590
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 295DEG 32KT 4796 9601 4731 9693 

$$

MNC107-113-119-125-NDC035-097-050245-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170705T0245Z/
Red Lake MN-Norman MN-Polk MN-Pennington MN-Grand Forks ND-Traill ND-
929 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN RED LAKE...NORTHWESTERN NORMAN...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...
SOUTHWESTERN PENNINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN GRAND FORKS AND NORTHEASTERN
TRAILL COUNTIES...

At 928 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Plummer to near Kelso, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Crookston, Red Lake Falls, Halstad, Erskine, Fisher, Buxton and
Climax.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 107 and 121.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4729 9690 4757 9721 4803 9649 4771 9590
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 295DEG 32KT 4796 9601 4731 9693 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Gust

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
617 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Issued a severe thunderstorm watch for much of the area with the
exclusion of Devils Lake Basin and Grant county until midnight.
Most likley scenario to unfold this evening is expected to be a
round of storms developing over the next hour or two. This
activity is expected to propagate to the southeast with severe
threats being large hail, up to 2 inches in size and damaging
downburst winds with speeds up to 70mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Main challenge tonight will be thunderstorms. Latest high
resolution guidance still develops storms in the 4-5 pm time frame
over the northern Red River Valley, then drops them SSE through
the evening. Looking at the SPC meso page, the northern valley
is closer to the better 0-6km bulk shear, at roughly 30 knots.
Values decrease moving southward, more in the 20-25 knot range at
most. Temps have risen in the mid 80s to lower 90s region wide,
with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. SPC meso page shows sfc
based CAPE values in the 4000-4500 J/kg range, but some CIN
remaining. 700mb temps are about 9-10C over central ND near the
boundary, so that is why not much is happening yet.

Still expecting the window for storms in GF/EGF to be from 6-9 pm
and for the FM area to be from 8-11 pm. Once the storms develop,
will see if this timing stills hold true. If so, storms may
impact later evening outdoor holiday events across the southern
half of the FA, while the north may be done by then. Looking ahead
into Wednesday, it appears the boundary will sag southward to the
fringes of the southern and southeast FA. Depending on where
exactly this boundary sets up and how much heating occurs after
the early morning clouds, there could be strong storms around
again. SPC has the entire area in a marginal risk, but will focus
more on this potential after tonights event is done.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

More storm chances for the beginning of the period will be the main
concern for the end of the week and through the weekend.

Global models are coming into better agreement with storm potential
for the Wednesday night/early Thursday time frame. A weak surface
trough with some upper level support looks to be the main forcing
mechanism for convective development by Wednesday evening and
tracking east-southeastward into Thursday morning. Instability looks
to be fairly decent (1500-2500 J/kg) given the time of day with
shear profiles a bit more favorable (35-45 kts) than Tuesday's
event. Therefore, agree with SPC's thinking of a marginal
risk/borderline slight risk is reasonable at this time.

Following any lingering precipitation chances early Thursday, the
rest of the week looks to be relatively dry and quiet. Models
continue to diverge on their synoptic features for the weekend with
the GFS bringing precipitation chances back to the area on Saturday
while the ECMWF and Canadian remain dry. The same goes for any
chances early in the new work week with the ECMWF holding on to its
high and dry solution.

Temperatures will cool down just a bit following the Wednesday
night/Thursday system with highs on Friday back down into the 70s
area wide while ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to from along a line from GFK to the
southwest in the next 2 hours. This activity is expected to move
to the southeast over the next 6 hours with VFR conditions
hereafter.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...JK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051015-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-Western Walsh County-
515 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A weak surface trough will move into eastern North Dakota this
afternoon. Thunderstorms will most likely develop in southern
Manitoba and move into northeastern North Dakota...then spread
south along the front. Isolated severe storms with hail up to 2
inches in diameter and winds up to 70 mph are possible. The threat
for tornadoes is low, but possible. Coverage of these storms will
be isolated and begin to decay by late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms to develop late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. No hazardous weather is expected
the remainder of the week beyond noontime Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

Speicher

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
751 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             3 WSW HANNAFORD         47.30N 98.25W
07/04/2017  E1.25 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
801 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             FLORIAN                 48.44N 96.63W
07/04/2017  E1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           MN   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
808 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             1 NW THOMPSON           47.79N 97.12W
07/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
826 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             THOMPSON                47.78N 97.11W
07/04/2017  E1.75 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

            VICINITY OF WALLE CHURCH.

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
848 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             EUCLID                  47.97N 96.64W
07/04/2017  E1.50 INCH       POLK               MN   STORM CHASER

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
855 PM CDT TUE JUL 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             4 W HANNAFORD           47.31N 98.27W
07/04/2017  E2.50 INCH       GRIGGS             ND   PUBLIC

            BROKEN WINDOWS REPORTED. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

WBARRETT