Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Grand Forks, ND

838 
WWUS53 KFGF 200227
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
927 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

MNC087-200236-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-170920T0300Z/
Mahnomen MN-
927 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MAHNOMEN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northwestern
Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4825 9516 4788 9500 4762 9501 4750 9564
      4762 9573 4795 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 238DEG 29KT 4796 9570 4771 9555 4754 9564 

$$

MNC007-029-113-119-125-200300-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-170920T0300Z/
Red Lake MN-Polk MN-Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-Clearwater MN-
927 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN RED LAKE...SOUTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN
BELTRAMI...SOUTHEASTERN PENNINGTON AND NORTHERN CLEARWATER
COUNTIES...

At 926 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Roland to near Gonvick to Lengby, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

These severe storms will be near...
  Gonvick around 930 PM CDT. 
  Clearbrook around 935 PM CDT. 
  Berner around 940 PM CDT. 
  Southwestern Lower Red Lake, Little Rock and Leonard around 1000 
  PM CDT.

This storm has a history of 60 mph to 70 mph wind gusts.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northwestern
Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4825 9516 4788 9500 4762 9501 4750 9564
      4762 9573 4795 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 238DEG 29KT 4796 9570 4771 9555 4754 9564 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

TG

532 
WWUS53 KFGF 200300
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Eastern ND/Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

MNC007-029-113-119-125-200310-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-170920T0300Z/
Red Lake MN-Polk MN-Beltrami MN-Pennington MN-Clearwater MN-
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RED LAKE...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...SOUTHEASTERN PENNINGTON
AND NORTHERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northwestern
Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4825 9516 4788 9500 4762 9501 4750 9564
      4762 9573 4795 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 241DEG 32KT 4810 9533 4785 9518 4768 9527 

$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
647 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The strongest storms now over Cass and Barnes counties are moving
out of the strongest MLCAPE into increasing CIN and turning more
to an area of heavy rain with some small hail being reported in
Fargo...although high winds is still a concern. The best MLCAPE
values are over western zones just ahead of the sfc boundary which
is just entering Ramsey county. Expect severe threat over eastern
NODAK to continue as sfc bndry moves into this area of higher
MLCAPE values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Severe thunderstorm chances continue to be the primary forecast
challenge for the period.

A line of showers and thunderstorms has been moving into the
Devils Lake Basin down to the James River Valley. This activity is
out ahead of the main surface trough axis and cold front. Strong
southeast winds have keep a lot of moisture streaming into the
central Dakotas. Clouds have covered much of the area today, but
there have been breaks and with strong mid level lapse rates and
very strong forcing, the leading storms will continue to
intensify and additional thunderstorm development will begin to
develop. The CAMs have strong storms into the Devils Lake area in
the next few hours and moving into the Red River Valley during the
00-03Z time frame. Most of the CAMs have the thunderstorms
developing into a quasi-linear complex, although some discrete
supercells are not out of the questions. Continue to think that
strong damaging winds will be the primary threat, although hail
and tornadoes will be possible, especially if cells become more
discrete.

The thunderstorm complex will continue to move into western MN
tonight, and even with decreasing surface instability, should
continue to be fairly strong with very vigorous forcing. Will have
to watch rainfall rates and training of thunderstorm cells for
heavy rain threat. With very dry conditions up until this point
don't think we will have a widespread flood risk but some issues
in urban areas could develop.

The thunderstorms will exit the area to the east as the cold front
pushes through sometime between 06 and 12Z with a few lingering
showers left behind. Southwest winds and warm air advection will
return fairly quickly for Wednesday as another trough develops to
our west. Other than a few lingering showers in the far northeast
conditions will be quiet and highs near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Quieter conditions are expected for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Temperatures will begin to warm into the mid to upper 70s during the
day Thursday with southerly winds at 10 to 15 mph. Temperatures will
be warm again Friday with highs in the low 60s in northeastern North
Dakota and upper 70s in western Minnesota. With the passage of a
frontal system late Friday rain chances will increase across the
region. Rain chances will remain across western Minnesota and far
southeastern North Dakota Friday night through Monday morning.
Rainfall totals in these areas could reach over one inch. Locally
higher rainfall amounts are possible. Temperatures over Saturday and
Sunday will remain cool with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Rain chances should diminish across western Minnesota and
southeastern North Dakota by Monday afternoon with highs in the low
60s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR outside of thunderstorms but DVL/FAR both to see TSRA move
into area through late evening...GFK clearing soon but chances for
redevelopment behind current SHRA is probable. TVF to see TSRA
within the next hour and BJI later in the evening. Strongest
storms with potential for hail that could damage tied down acft is
expected at FAR/DVL through midnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...Speicher

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
617 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

MNZ004>009-013-014-016-017-023-024-032-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-
054-201130-
Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall-
North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-North Clearwater-
South Beltrami-South Clearwater-Hubbard-Wadena-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh County-Eddy-Nelson-
Western Walsh County-
617 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe weather is expected for this afternoon and evening. Storms
will produce hail to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 70
mph. The storms will be most likely between 3 pm CDT Tuesday to 1
AM CDT Wednesday. A tornado may be possible with the storms.
Locally heavy rain will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

MNZ001>003-015-022-027>031-040-NDZ027>030-038-039-049-052-053-
201130-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-East Polk-Mahnomen-West Becker-East Becker-
Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Grant-Grand Forks-Griggs-
Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
617 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and evening

Severe weather is expected for this afternoon and evening. Storms
will produce hail to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 75
mph. The storms will be most likely between 3 pm CDT Tuesday to 1
AM CDT Wednesday. A tornado or two may be possible with the
storms. Locally heavy rain will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
511 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             2 SE LITCHVILLE         46.64N 98.16W
09/19/2017  E1.00 INCH       BARNES             ND   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

ALEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
639 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE LITCHVILLE         46.67N 98.18W
09/19/2017                   BARNES             ND   PUBLIC

            BARN HAD DAMAGE TO ROOF WITH TREE LIMBS IN ROOF. HOUSE
            HAD SHINGLES REMOVED.

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             2 N ESMOND              48.06N 99.76W
09/19/2017  E1.00 INCH       BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
814 PM CDT TUE SEP 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE BUFFALO            46.94N 97.52W
09/19/2017  E60 MPH          CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            STRONG WINDS WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

KNUTSVIG