Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
753 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...updated for 00z Aviation Discussion...

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
The short term will be mostly dealing with remnant -shra and -tsra
along with any outflows. For the metro sites included a short
tempo group to account for a northward moving boundary but am not
totally confident that it will show itself in surface obs when it
arrives. Good news is that if it comes in it will mimic prevailing
winds with a few gusts. Things should wind down area wide after
02z with small chance of some MVFR fog by AM but did not include
in the forecast. Most hi-res models suggest convection starting
back up after 19/20z on Monday with generally SW winds. Have
included prob30 groups area wide to reflect the chances.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
high confidence all elements

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Primary concern in the short term period is timing and likelihood of
diurnally driven convection. Storms today greatly affected by morning
remnants of MCS which moved over middle GA and south ATL metro
counties. New convection focused as expected to the south and east
of the old complex and MCV (mesoscale convective vortex). See breeze
convection over the west FL gulf coast also in a favorable pattern
for northward propagation and will affect far southern counties with
widespread SHRA/TSRA and possible flooding. Over most of north GA
including ATL metro, could see an isolated SHRA but most of this
area will remain too stable for significant deep convection. After
south/middle GA storms diminish after 02Z, should be fairly quiet
tonight. Not expecting a repeat MCS like last night.

Moist plume and nearly washed out stationary front should remain
over south and middle GA Monday, where better coverage of TSRA will
be in the afternoon/evening. Low level moisture still high over
north GA so isolated convection still likely. Slight chance PoPs
seem prudent.

Will continue to monitor rainfall amounts over southern counties.
Even though reflectivity trends indicate MCS forming in SW GA,
rainfall amounts so far have mainly been 1-2" with isolated higher
amounts.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No big changes in the long term. Models continue to show some
drying for the north into the week...with the upper ridge building
back over our area by the weekend. However not enough drying to
remove pops completely except for a couple of night time periods
mid week. Previous discussion is included below.

41

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Main frontal system from the short term will have moved into
south GA by the beginning of the extended. By Monday night the
deeper moisture will have also moved south and east of the area
but there is still some mid to lower level moisture across the
region. Drier air does move into the area beginning Tuesday but
will still see the diurnal convective trend continue through day
7 with instabilities increasing every afternoon.

With a ridge building into the area Wednesday and a bit drier air
mass across the region...This will mean hotter temps for the end
of the extended forecast. Temps will have no problem pushing into
90s across the area.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  87  70  89 /  20  40  40  30
Atlanta         71  86  72  88 /  20  40  40  30
Blairsville     63  84  64  84 /  20  40  30  30
Cartersville    70  87  70  88 /  20  40  30  20
Columbus        72  87  73  89 /  30  50  40  40
Gainesville     70  85  70  87 /  20  40  30  30
Macon           72  87  72  89 /  40  50  40  40
Rome            70  89  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
Peachtree City  70  86  70  88 /  20  40  40  30
Vidalia         73  87  73  89 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30

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