Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Current radar loop shows showers and isolated Thunderstorms across
the CWA this afternoon. The main line of storms just north of ATL
appears to be associated with the lingering front that is expected
to move slowly south through the short term.  For today and sat
afternoon the models are showing decent cape values in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg with some shear noted as well. Expect some storms to
become strong to severe mainly north today and central Sat as the
frontal boundary sinks into south Ga by Sunday.  The main threats
with any storms through the short term will be gusty winds, frequent
lightning, small hail and heavy rain. Models indicating storms will
linger through the evening hours and taper off towards midnight each
day. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period.

01

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Stagnant long-wave upper level pattern will exist for at least the
first part of this period (Sunday/Monday) as a trough covers the
eastern half of the CONUS while a strong ridge impacts the West.
Models hinting at "relatively drier" air moving into north Georgia
Sunday, diminishing the threat of showers/thunderstorms both Sunday
and Monday - mainly north of I-85/I-20. South of this line, expect
deeper moisture and plenty of instability (daytime heating) along a
remnant boundary, to support scattered mainly afternoon/evening
showers and storms. This time of year, any of these storms will be
capable of producing very localized strong to damaging winds,
frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rainfall which could
lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

By the middle of the week, upr trough will exit the east coast as
ridge relaxes a bit and shifts east across the southern Plains. This
will result in a very warm and humid pattern with scattered
diurnally-driven (mainly afternoon and evening) showers and
thunderstorms. At this time, there really isn't any definitive
feature/reason to deviate from POPs in the 30-50% range. By the
middle to end of next week, temps will be running slightly above
normal as we approach mid July.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Showers and thunderstorms continue across a majority of the area
this evening. This activity will gradually wane over the next
several hours...but may plague many TAF sites for the next hour or
two. Main concern thereafter will be the potential for fog and
MVFR/IFR conditions late in the overnight hours and around
sunrise. Right now...forecaster confidence is not quite high
enough to put mention in the TAFs yet...but will reevaluate after
the 00z model data comes in. For Saturday...expecting a mix of mid
level clouds and the diurnal cu deck in the afternoon and evening
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by early
to mid afternoon. West winds will continue through the period

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low on fog and low ceiling potential.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  70  89 /  40  30  20  10
Atlanta         72  88  71  88 /  40  30  30  20
Blairsville     65  83  62  83 /  20  30  10   5
Cartersville    71  88  68  87 /  30  30  20  10
Columbus        75  91  73  91 /  50  30  30  40
Gainesville     71  87  69  87 /  30  30  10  10
Macon           74  91  73  90 /  50  30  30  40
Rome            71  88  68  88 /  20  40  20   5
Peachtree City  71  89  70  88 /  40  30  30  20
Vidalia         75  94  74  91 /  40  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Kovacik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
205 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect north and central
Georgia through early this evening. A few storms could become strong
to severe, with the main hazards being heavy rainfall, strong to
damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning. Expect storms to
diminish after sunset this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, most
so during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds...frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall as the main hazards. Brief localized flooding
of poor drainage areas will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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