Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
745 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Current radar loop shows showers and isolated Thunderstorms across
the CWA this afternoon. The main line of storms just north of ATL
appears to be associated with the lingering front that is expected
to move slowly south through the short term.  For today and sat
afternoon the models are showing decent cape values in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg with some shear noted as well. Expect some storms to
become strong to severe mainly north today and central Sat as the
frontal boundary sinks into south Ga by Sunday.  The main threats
with any storms through the short term will be gusty winds, frequent
lightning, small hail and heavy rain. Models indicating storms will
linger through the evening hours and taper off towards midnight each
day. Temperatures will remain near normal through the period.

01

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Stagnant long-wave upper level pattern will exist for at least the
first part of this period (Sunday/Monday) as a trough covers the
eastern half of the CONUS while a strong ridge impacts the West.
Models hinting at "relatively drier" air moving into north Georgia
Sunday, diminishing the threat of showers/thunderstorms both Sunday
and Monday - mainly north of I-85/I-20. South of this line, expect
deeper moisture and plenty of instability (daytime heating) along a
remnant boundary, to support scattered mainly afternoon/evening
showers and storms. This time of year, any of these storms will be
capable of producing very localized strong to damaging winds,
frequent cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rainfall which could
lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

By the middle of the week, upr trough will exit the east coast as
ridge relaxes a bit and shifts east across the southern Plains. This
will result in a very warm and humid pattern with scattered
diurnally-driven (mainly afternoon and evening) showers and
thunderstorms. At this time, there really isn't any definitive
feature/reason to deviate from POPs in the 30-50% range. By the
middle to end of next week, temps will be running slightly above
normal as we approach mid July.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Showers and thunderstorms continue across a majority of the area
this evening. This activity will gradually wane over the next
several hours...but may plague many TAF sites for the next hour or
two. Main concern thereafter will be the potential for fog and
MVFR/IFR conditions late in the overnight hours and around
sunrise. Right now...forecaster confidence is not quite high
enough to put mention in the TAFs yet...but will reevaluate after
the 00z model data comes in. For Saturday...expecting a mix of mid
level clouds and the diurnal cu deck in the afternoon and evening
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by early
to mid afternoon. West winds will continue through the period

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low on fog and low ceiling potential.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  70  89 /  40  30  20  10
Atlanta         72  88  71  88 /  40  30  30  20
Blairsville     65  83  62  83 /  20  30  10   5
Cartersville    71  88  68  87 /  30  30  20  10
Columbus        75  91  73  91 /  50  30  30  40
Gainesville     71  87  69  87 /  30  30  10  10
Macon           74  91  73  90 /  50  30  30  40
Rome            71  88  68  88 /  20  40  20   5
Peachtree City  71  89  70  88 /  40  30  30  20
Vidalia         75  94  74  91 /  40  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Kovacik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
205 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect north and central
Georgia through early this evening. A few storms could become strong
to severe, with the main hazards being heavy rainfall, strong to
damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning. Expect storms to
diminish after sunset this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, most
so during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be
strong to severe with gusty winds...frequent lightning and
locally heavy rainfall as the main hazards. Brief localized flooding
of poor drainage areas will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

GAZ033-034-045-080045-
North Fulton GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
809 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
DEKALB AND SOUTHWESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 808 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered near Chastain
Memorial Park, or 9 miles northwest of Decatur. Other strong storms
were developing near Chamblee. These storms were moving east at 15
mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Decatur, Sandy Springs, Dunwoody, Lilburn, Chamblee,
Norcross, Doraville, Clarkston, Stone Mountain, Avondale Estates,
Pine Lake, Tucker, North Decatur, North Atlanta, North Druid Hills,
Midtown, Druid Hills, Belvedere Park and Mountain Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3379 8446 3394 8441 3397 8414 3386 8406
      3375 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 277DEG 11KT 3389 8438

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
821 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

GAZ072-073-084-080045-
Wilkinson GA-Baldwin GA-Jones GA-
821 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKINSON...
SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 820 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered 6 miles west of
Gray. Another strong storm was located 3 miles east-
southeast of Gray. Both storms were moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Gray, Gordon, Ivey, Postell, James, Bradley, Coopers,
Mountain Springs, Haddock, Pancras, Greenberry Crossroads, Clinton
and Browns Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3287 8331 3288 8339 3290 8341 3288 8344
      3290 8368 3303 8369 3311 8331 3299 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 265DEG 12KT 3296 8362

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
822 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

GAZ033-080045-
North Fulton GA-
822 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTH FULTON COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 822 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered near Roswell, or
14 miles east of Marietta...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta and Berkeley Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3406 8415 3405 8410 3403 8412 3403 8417
      3399 8419 3399 8420 3400 8421 3400 8424
      3399 8425 3399 8426 3398 8426 3397 8434
      3408 8435 3409 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 265DEG 12KT 3403 8430

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH