Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Typical July forecast through the short term, with diurnal convection
and warm, muggy conditions. Shortwave approaching the area overnight
will keep rain chances slightly above summertime normals by Monday
morning, promoting storm development through the day. The arrival of
the shortwave has slowed somewhat, and have generally gone with
slightly lower pops through the overnight hours compared to the
previous forecast package, but kept them at good chance through the
day Monday.

PWs continue to range between 1.75 and 2.0 inches across the area,
and slow-moving or training storms can be expected to produce high
rainfall amounts of 2 or more inches. Some storms tonight and again
Monday could be strong, but are generally expected to be sub-severe.

Temperatures remain warm with lows in the 70s and near-normal highs
in the mid 80s to near 90. Have generally gone with a guidance blend
through Tuesday morning.

31

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

For the Independence Day Holiday, still appears we will
have scattered showers/storms with precip chances about
40-50 percent in the afternoon and early evening dropping to
20-30 percent after 8pm. Forecast High Temperatures are running
in the 80s to mid 90s. Forecast Heat indices are running in the
90s to lower 100's except cooler in the mountains.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Primary concern in the long term period is location and likelihood
of diurnal convection. Large scale pattern early in the period
defined by large longwave trough over the eastern half of the
CONUS with weak westerlies as far south as AL/GA/SC. Shortwave
over mid-Mississippi valley area by Wednesday fcst to slowly move
east into KY/TN/AL by 00Z Fri. Thru Thurs afternoon, typical
diurnal coverage of SHRA/TSRA likely but could see an increase in
coverage on Friday and Saturday as front associated with shortwave
moves through the state.

Too soon to tell, but 00Z medium range guidance indicating there
is some hope for slightly cooler and drier air moving in next
weekend and early next week as another shortwave digs further
south into the southeast states in NW flow.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
FEW-SCT MVFR, BKN VFR present over the area this afternoon with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Expect convection to largely
dissipate after 00-01z. West winds will be 10kt or less through
the afternoon and again Monday, and 5kt or less overnight. Could
see some patchy fog develop in 08-14z hours, with FEW-SCT IFR or
low MVFR.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of -TSRA TEMPO this afternoon.
Medium on cloud heights.
High on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  87  71  90 /  30  50  30  40
Atlanta         72  86  72  89 /  30  40  30  40
Blairsville     65  82  65  84 /  30  50  30  50
Cartersville    70  87  70  89 /  40  40  30  40
Columbus        73  91  74  92 /  30  30  20  40
Gainesville     71  85  70  87 /  30  50  30  40
Macon           73  89  72  92 /  30  40  30  40
Rome            71  88  70  89 /  60  30  30  40
Peachtree City  71  87  70  89 /  30  40  30  40
Vidalia         75  90  74  92 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
915 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
915 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over north and central
Georgia this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are likely
to remain below severe levels, although some strong storms
will produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorm chances will increase on
Friday and Saturday as an upper level storm system approaches. Any
storms could be strong with gusty winds as well as locally heavy
rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
417 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ001>003-022100-
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
417 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CATOOSA...NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND
NORTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 417 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Wildwood, or 7 miles
northeast of Trenton...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Ringgold, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville, Chickamauga, Lookout Mountain,
Lakeview, Indian Springs, Wood Station, Graysville, Blue Spring,
Wildwood, Fairview, Boynton, Beaumont, Chattanooga  Valley,
Morganville, Hooker, Rock Spring and East Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3498 8507 3482 8508 3481 8512 3482 8513
      3479 8514 3484 8548 3498 8548 3499 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 271DEG 19KT 3493 8540

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
420 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ027-038-022100-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-
420 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN
OGLETHORPE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 420 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ila, or near
Danielsville...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Danielsville, Comer, Colbert, Ila, Carlton, Pocataligo, Diamond Hill,
Neese, Watson Mill Bridge State Park and Paoli.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3424 8324 3425 8324 3425 8320 3424 8318
      3426 8314 3426 8311 3423 8308 3417 8310
      3415 8306 3409 8302 3398 8306 3409 8337
      3412 8336 3417 8337 3424 8334 3426 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 285DEG 15KT 3418 8328

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
422 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ076-022045-
Jefferson GA-
422 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Avera, or 8 miles
southeast of Gibson...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Wrens, Stapleton, Avera, Matthews, Stellaville and Stapletons
Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3315 8227 3307 8229 3303 8229 3306 8255
      3319 8256 3325 8247 3328 8230 3327 8229
      3326 8225 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 268DEG 16KT 3316 8248

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
438 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ015-016-023-022130-
Hall GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
438 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HALL...WHITE AND
EASTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 438 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Turners Corner, or 8
miles west of Cleveland...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dahlonega, Cleveland, Lula, Clermont, Helen, Unicoi State Park,
Whitley Gap Shelter, Robertstown, Mossy Creek, Low Gap Shelter, Camp
Coleman Lake, Anna Ruby Falls, Garland, Leaf, Smithgall Woods
Conservation Are, Porter Springs, Turners Corner, Sautee and
Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3480 8368 3477 8363 3473 8362 3467 8364
      3465 8366 3462 8364 3458 8364 3455 8362
      3451 8367 3443 8362 3440 8366 3438 8366
      3453 8405 3474 8395 3472 8384 3474 8382
      3478 8383 3480 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 287DEG 18KT 3464 8390

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ076-022115-
Jefferson GA-
443 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 443 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Wrens, or 10 miles
east of Gibson...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Wrens, Stapleton, Matthews and Stellaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3315 8227 3311 8228 3308 8247 3321 8252
      3327 8243 3331 8238 3331 8234 3330 8231
      3327 8229 3327 8226 3323 8224 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 251DEG 16KT 3319 8242

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH