Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1121 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.UPDATE...
Overall forecast trends are on track. Have made a few minor
adjustments to hourly forecast grids through early afternoon based
on latest trends. Starting to see convective initiation over the
far southwest CWA/west-central Georgia. Expect coverage to
increase over the next hour or so.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 724 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Models in agreement with bringing another short wave into the CWA
this afternoon and exiting Monday. Daytime heating should aid in
convection this afternoon with a diminishing trend in the evening.
However with the short wave moving into western GA tonight, will
need to keep pops in the chance category through tonight. The short
wave will move into eastern GA monday and will keep the highest pops
over the eastern part of the CWA. Can't rule out an isolated strong
storm with gusty winds this afternoon, and with a tropical
atmosphere continuing, localized heavy rain remains possible. Local
bias tables indicate guidance temps have been doing pretty good over
the past 5 days and have stayed close to a MAV/MET mix.

17

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Primary concern in the long term period is location and likelihood
of diurnal convection. Large scale pattern early in the period
defined by large longwave trough over the eastern half of the
CONUS with weak westerlies as far south as AL/GA/SC. Shortwave
over mid-Mississippi valley area by Wednesday fcst to slowly move
east into KY/TN/AL by 00Z Fri. Thru Thurs afternoon, typical
diurnal coverage of SHRA/TSRA likely but could see an increase in
coverage on Friday and Saturday as front associated with shortwave
moves through the state.

For the 4th of July holiday, still appears we will have scattered
SHRA/TSRA with probs/coverage around 30-40 percent in the
afternoon and early evening dropping to around 20-30 percent after
8pm then less than 10 percent after midnight.

Too soon to tell, but 00Z medium range guidance indicating there
is some hope for slightly cooler and drier air moving in next
weekend and early next week as another shortwave digs further
south into the southeast states in NW flow.

SNELSON

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Patchy LIFR cigs will dissipate through 14Z with a cu field
develop afterwards. Another disturbance will bring increasing
chances of tsra this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light
westerly through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on clouds heights and coverage early this morning.
Medium on timing of tsra this afternoon.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  89  71 /  40  30  50  30
Atlanta         88  73  88  71 /  50  40  40  20
Blairsville     84  65  84  65 /  40  30  50  30
Cartersville    88  68  89  70 /  50  40  40  20
Columbus        91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  20
Gainesville     87  71  87  70 /  40  40  50  30
Macon           92  72  91  72 /  40  30  50  30
Rome            88  70  90  70 /  50  40  30  20
Peachtree City  89  72  89  70 /  50  30  40  20
Vidalia         94  75  93  74 /  40  30  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
915 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
915 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected over north and central
Georgia this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are likely
to remain below severe levels, although some strong storms
will produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorm chances will increase on
Friday and Saturday as an upper level storm system approaches. Any
storms could be strong with gusty winds as well as locally heavy
rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ104-021815-
Sumter GA-
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 215
PM EDT...

At 148 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Huntington, or near
Americus...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Americus, Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, Lamar, Methvins, New Era,
Huntington and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3194 8422 3212 8425 3218 8404 3217 8403
      3215 8403 3213 8401 3212 8401 3209 8398
      3207 8399 3206 8398 3205 8398 3205 8397
      3203 8396 3194 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 261DEG 14KT 3205 8416

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
206 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ039-062-021830-
Wilkes GA-Warren GA-
206 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKES AND NORTHERN
WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 206 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Rocky Creek Fire
Dept., or 10 miles southeast of Washington...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Aonia, Cadley, Rocky Creek Fire Dept., Holliday Park and Lundberg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3366 8251 3365 8252 3364 8256 3365 8258
      3363 8258 3364 8259 3363 8261 3363 8262
      3362 8262 3361 8265 3349 8260 3351 8274
      3359 8270 3360 8268 3362 8269 3361 8273
      3369 8273 3371 8252 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 272DEG 14KT 3360 8266

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

GAZ104-106-021845-
Crisp GA-Sumter GA-
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRISP AND SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 208 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cobb, or 10 miles west
of Cordele...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cordele, Arabi, Cobb, East Crisp, Fort Early, Georgia Veterans
Memorial St Pk, Raines, Tremont, Wenona and Hatley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3183 8386 3184 8386 3185 8394 3186 8393
      3188 8393 3191 8392 3191 8405 3207 8401
      3207 8398 3205 8398 3205 8397 3203 8396
      3203 8361 3181 8361 3180 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 283DEG 27KT 3197 8395

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH