Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
723 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
The primary focus this afternoon into tonight will be the increase
in thunderstorm coverage as a complex of thunderstorms advances into
Georgia from the northwest. This MCS has continued to strengthen as
it progresses southeastward into the unstable airmass that is in
place across the southeast. Current surface CAPE values from 2500-
3000 J/kg cross Georgia will be sufficient to maintain thunderstorm
intensity into the evening hours, and downdraft CAPE over 1000 J/kg
in north Georgia will support a damaging wind threat. This
convective line is expected to push through north Georgia during the
evening hours, with the greatest risk of any severe thunderstorms in
northwest Georgia during the early evening. While some severe threat
will extend farther south and east, the overall intensity should
begin to gradually diminish after sunset.

Friday will be another day with widespread shower and thunderstorm
development by afternoon, especially across the southeastern half of
the area where the best overlap of moisture and instability will
reside. With relatively steep lapse rates and sufficient
instability, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.
Strong wind gusts would be the main threat.

Temperatures will remain warm with highs on Friday in the upper 80s
to near 90 and lows around 70.

RW

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Minimal adjustments were made to the extended periods. Models
continue to advertise a moist airmass remaining over the state as
a front stalls and moisture continues to advect into the region.
Have continued above seasonal pops through the period.
Temperatures remain slightly above seasonal normals, and have gone
with a model blend. Models do continue to advertise potential
tropical wave developing by mid week, with some varied solutions
regarding its track.

31

/issued 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

The unsettled extended period remains largely unchanged from
previous forecast. Weak cyclonic flow in the mid levels will be
the main source for deeper layer moisture going into the weekend.
Scattered thunderstorms from Friday should gradually diminish
overnight before redeveloping on Saturday as daytime heating aids
buoyancy. Although weak residual sfc troughing may linger on
Saturday...expecting the bulk of thunderstorm activity to be
diurnally driven /barring any aid from mid level shortwave
activity/.

Activity will wind down into the overnight hours Saturday when the
main area of mid level cyclonic flow begins to weaken in response to
a fast moving shortwave trough diving east from the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes. As this shortwave then ejects from the Great
Lakes into Ontario/Quebec...associated sfc "cold" front will begin
to approach the area on Sunday. The front will not make it to the
TN/GA border on Sunday...but the airmass in place will be enough to
spark numerous thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon hours.

EC/GFS guidance suggest the "cold" front will reach the northern Ga
border by Monday afternoon as deep troughing in the mid & upper
levels builds south toward the CWA. This pattern will begin to take
on a western US ridge and eastern US trough.
Nonetheless...thunderstorms can be expected along and just ahead of
the front across north Georgia on Monday...and enough of the western
US ridge may nose into central/southern Georgia to keep any activity
more isolated. With best shear well north of the area...widespread
severe weather is not expected at this time along/ahead of the front.

Front will continue its southern progress Monday night into Tuesday
where storms will likely continue into the first part of the night
across ATL-AHN metro areas and perhaps portions of central Georgia
before weakening. There is a chance some drier air could work into
the north Ga mountains at this time. Still seeing enough moisture
being advected by anticyclonic flow around the Bermuda high to
suggest that this boundary of moisture will collide with the
southward moving "cold" front by Tuesday. Thinking this will stall
the boundary and then help nudge it gradually north as a warm front
for the remainder of the extended. This points to continued humidity
and the possibility of scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
Tropical wave still showing up in the Yucatan area into the western
Gulf by mid week.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Convection continues to move east and south with gusts of 35 to 45
kts pretty common. This will slowly end through 06z. In areas that
had rain, sct-bkn ifr clouds are likely late tonight. These will
lift rapidly Friday morning with heating. Convection will re-
develop during the afternoon with most of the activity east and
south of Atlanta. Winds will remain on westerly through the
forecast less than 10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on sct008 late tonight.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  70  88 /  80  60  50  60
Atlanta         72  88  72  87 /  90  60  40  50
Blairsville     65  85  64  83 /  90  50  40  50
Cartersville    69  89  69  89 /  90  50  40  50
Columbus        73  90  72  90 /  80  60  50  40
Gainesville     70  88  70  86 /  90  60  40  60
Macon           72  90  72  89 /  70  60  50  60
Rome            70  90  70  90 /  80  40  30  40
Peachtree City  70  89  70  88 /  90  60  50  50
Vidalia         74  90  73  89 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Chattahoochee...Clayton...DeKalb...Fayette...
Gwinnett...Harris...Henry...Lamar...Marion...Meriwether...
Muscogee...Pike...Rockdale...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...
Talbot...Taylor...Upson...Webster.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
309 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and move into
north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe with the primary
threats being gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall.

Thunderstorms will continue into the late evening hours, with the
potential for some of the weakening activity to continue through
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be possible Friday
through Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

A cold front will approach the area on Monday and continue the
chance for thunderstorms through at least Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
719 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

GAZ025-027-036-038-152345-
Madison GA-Jackson GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
719 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE AND NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
EDT...

At 719 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sandy Creek Recreation
Area, or near Athens...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Danielsville, Athens, Nicholson, Comer, Winterville, Colbert, Ila,
Carlton, Hull, Athens-Clarke County, James Holland Youth Sports Cmpx,
Diamond Hill, Smithonia, Sandy Creek Recreation Area, Oconee Heights,
Barretts Mill, Paoli, Neese, Watson Mill Bridge State Park and Point
Peter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3422 8308 3421 8309 3419 8309 3417 8310
      3415 8306 3412 8305 3411 8303 3410 8304
      3408 8301 3398 8298 3394 8343 3412 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 257DEG 16KT 3405 8338

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
739 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

GAZ078-079-089>091-102-103-160015-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Stewart GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-Talbot GA-
Muscogee GA-
739 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE...SOUTHERN
HARRIS...NORTHEASTERN STEWART...WESTERN MARION...NORTHWESTERN
WEBSTER...SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT AND MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

At 739 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Custer Road Terrace,
or near Columbus...moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Columbus, Buena Vista, Cusseta, North Fort Benning, Bibb City,
Upatoi, Fort Benning/lawson Army Air Fld, Brantley, Goat Rock Lake,
Laurel Hills, Green Island Hills, Juniper, Vista Terrace, Columbus
Metropolitan Airport, Jamestown/south Fort Benning, Renfroe, Rose
Hill, Oakland, Manta and Zellobee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3256 8452 3218 8454 3223 8492 3224 8491
      3225 8492 3226 8489 3230 8494 3233 8501
      3235 8500 3238 8497 3239 8499 3239 8497
      3241 8498 3243 8496 3244 8497 3245 8500
      3252 8501 3258 8507 3263 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 279DEG 32KT 3238 8494

WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
750 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

GAZ104-160015-
Sumter GA-
750 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 750 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over New Era, or near
Americus...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Americus, Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, Sumter, Lamar, Croxton
Crossroads, New Era, Huntington, Pennington, Maddox and Methvins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3194 8441 3216 8421 3216 8418 3219 8418
      3217 8403 3215 8403 3210 8400 3209 8398
      3207 8399 3205 8398 3202 8395 3191 8392
      3192 8434 3188 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 275DEG 9KT 3210 8413

WIND...50MPH