Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
The primary focus this afternoon into tonight will be the increase
in thunderstorm coverage as a complex of thunderstorms advances into
Georgia from the northwest. This MCS has continued to strengthen as
it progresses southeastward into the unstable airmass that is in
place across the southeast. Current surface CAPE values from 2500-
3000 J/kg cross Georgia will be sufficient to maintain thunderstorm
intensity into the evening hours, and downdraft CAPE over 1000 J/kg
in north Georgia will support a damaging wind threat. This
convective line is expected to push through north Georgia during the
evening hours, with the greatest risk of any severe thunderstorms in
northwest Georgia during the early evening. While some severe threat
will extend farther south and east, the overall intensity should
begin to gradually diminish after sunset.

Friday will be another day with widespread shower and thunderstorm
development by afternoon, especially across the southeastern half of
the area where the best overlap of moisture and instability will
reside. With relatively steep lapse rates and sufficient
instability, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.
Strong wind gusts would be the main threat.

Temperatures will remain warm with highs on Friday in the upper 80s
to near 90 and lows around 70.

RW

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Minimal adjustments were made to the extended periods. Models
continue to advertise a moist airmass remaining over the state as
a front stalls and moisture continues to advect into the region.
Have continued above seasonal pops through the period.
Temperatures remain slightly above seasonal normals, and have gone
with a model blend. Models do continue to advertise potential
tropical wave developing by mid week, with some varied solutions
regarding its track.

31

/issued 340 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

The unsettled extended period remains largely unchanged from
previous forecast. Weak cyclonic flow in the mid levels will be
the main source for deeper layer moisture going into the weekend.
Scattered thunderstorms from Friday should gradually diminish
overnight before redeveloping on Saturday as daytime heating aids
buoyancy. Although weak residual sfc troughing may linger on
Saturday...expecting the bulk of thunderstorm activity to be
diurnally driven /barring any aid from mid level shortwave
activity/.

Activity will wind down into the overnight hours Saturday when the
main area of mid level cyclonic flow begins to weaken in response to
a fast moving shortwave trough diving east from the Northern Plains
into the Great Lakes. As this shortwave then ejects from the Great
Lakes into Ontario/Quebec...associated sfc "cold" front will begin
to approach the area on Sunday. The front will not make it to the
TN/GA border on Sunday...but the airmass in place will be enough to
spark numerous thunderstorms...especially during the afternoon hours.

EC/GFS guidance suggest the "cold" front will reach the northern Ga
border by Monday afternoon as deep troughing in the mid & upper
levels builds south toward the CWA. This pattern will begin to take
on a western US ridge and eastern US trough.
Nonetheless...thunderstorms can be expected along and just ahead of
the front across north Georgia on Monday...and enough of the western
US ridge may nose into central/southern Georgia to keep any activity
more isolated. With best shear well north of the area...widespread
severe weather is not expected at this time along/ahead of the front.

Front will continue its southern progress Monday night into Tuesday
where storms will likely continue into the first part of the night
across ATL-AHN metro areas and perhaps portions of central Georgia
before weakening. There is a chance some drier air could work into
the north Ga mountains at this time. Still seeing enough moisture
being advected by anticyclonic flow around the Bermuda high to
suggest that this boundary of moisture will collide with the
southward moving "cold" front by Tuesday. Thinking this will stall
the boundary and then help nudge it gradually north as a warm front
for the remainder of the extended. This points to continued humidity
and the possibility of scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
Tropical wave still showing up in the Yucatan area into the western
Gulf by mid week.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Through the remainder of the afternoon, VFR ceilings with
scattered CU can be expected with generally isolated SHRA/TSRA.
Included VCSH through the afternoon to account for this
possibility. The chance for TSRA is expected to increase most
appreciably around and after about 21z in association with a
disturbance currently NW of the area. Convection should gradually
diminish overnight. Winds remain from the west through the TAF
period. There is some potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings at CSG/MCN
sites by Friday morning but have limited mention to CSG at this
time.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convective timing/evolution.
High on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  70  88 /  40  60  50  60
Atlanta         72  88  72  87 /  50  60  40  50
Blairsville     65  85  64  83 /  50  50  40  50
Cartersville    69  89  69  89 /  50  50  40  50
Columbus        73  90  72  90 /  30  60  50  40
Gainesville     70  88  70  86 /  50  60  40  60
Macon           72  90  72  89 /  30  60  50  60
Rome            70  90  70  90 /  50  40  30  40
Peachtree City  70  89  70  88 /  40  60  50  50
Vidalia         74  90  73  89 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...RW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
629 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINE RIDGE POINT        34.02N  83.99W
06/15/2017                   GWINNETT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CAMP
            PERRIN ROAD AND AZALEA DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700792

LMERRITT

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
630 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

GAZ054>058-068-070-152300-
Butts GA-Fayette GA-Lamar GA-Clayton GA-Spalding GA-Pike GA-Henry GA-
630 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BUTTS...FAYETTE...
NORTHWESTERN LAMAR...CLAYTON...SPALDING...NORTHEASTERN PIKE AND HENRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 630 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong winds ahead of a line of thunderstorms along a line extending
from Fort Gillem to Peachtree City...and moving southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind preceding rain or lightning.

  IMPACT...Strong winds will occur before any rain or lightning. Do
           not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
           Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Griffin, McDonough, Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Zebulon, Peachtree City,
Stockbridge, Forest Park, Riverdale, Hampton, Morrow, Lovejoy, Locust
Grove, Lake City, Brooks, Jenkinsburg, Williamson, Orchard Hill,
Meansville and Woolsey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor
NOAA Weather Radio...weather.gov or orther media outlets for further
statements or possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3365 8434 3344 8392 3304 8431 3320 8443
      3320 8449 3325 8451 3326 8448 3330 8452
      3332 8452 3333 8453 3334 8455 3339 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 298DEG 30KT 3363 8430 3341 8456

WIND...50MPH