Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
716 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Another unsettled day across the forecast area with showers and
thunderstorms developing. A weak trough extends down the Appalachians
and the convection seems to be favoring the northern counties so
far. Still expect a diurnal pattern to prevail for tonight. Have
included no pops after 06z...however would not be surprised to see a
few showers last all night. For Thursday...high pressure over the
Carolinas and the mid Atlantic is expected to weaken. This will
allow a short wave aloft to move southeast from the plains
states...possibly enhancing convection across north GA. SPC has
included our northwest counties in a slight risk for day two. There
appears to be abundant instability available with capes forecast to
range over 2000 by Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures should run more or less close to normal.

41

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
A relatively static forecast continues through the extended period
with plentiful opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. A warm
and moist airmass will interact with persistent weak low pressure
through the weekend to spark showers and thunderstorms each day. An
approaching cold front early next week will bring an additional
focus for thunderstorms. Please refer to the previous long-term
discussion below for additional details.

RW

Previous LONG TERM Forecast Discussion /Thursday Night through
Tuesday/...

The extended period remains largely unchanged and rather
monotonous through about Monday. As we begin on Thursday
night...the mid and upper levels will begin the process of taking
on more weakly cyclonic flow regime in which multiple weak
shortwave troughs will be advecting through. Stubborn weak trough
stemming from a weak sfc low over the North Carolina Piedmont will
also be lingering somewhere across eastern and northern Georgia.
With such a pattern...think convection from Thursday will be slow
to die down overnight into Friday. Cannot rule out some lingering
strong to isolated severe in this timeframe...mainly associated
with steeper mid level lapse rates as the cyclonic flow pattern
builds in.

On Friday...a very weak mid level shortwave will attempt to close
off...or at least become more concentrated over the local area. This
feature in conjunction with the Piedmont/lee side area of sfc low
pressure in the vicinity should be plenty to spark numerous
thunderstorms amidst a warm and unstable airmass. Coverage should
increase quickly by Friday afternoon and linger into a good
portion of Friday night. Weak low will continue to pump Gulf
moisture into the CWA through Saturday so expecting Saturday to be
similar to Friday...with perhaps slightly higher coverage across
central Georgia as the low attempts to move S/SE...albeit very
slowly. Same story for Sunday.

By Monday...A strong shortwave will eject out of the Great Lakes
into Ontario/Quebec. This will push the next cold front into the
area...which should have no problem sustaining thunderstorm
development along it despite best dynamics being well north. Belt of
stronger westerlies remain far enough north to keep best shear out
of the area. Things become a little unclear as this front progresses
south through the CWA. At the moment...seeing anticyclonic flow
around the Bermuda High pushing a plume of moisture into the region
from the SE...which looks to collide with the front and create some
sort of shear zone. Way too early to get cute with any details
though. Still EC/GFS agreement on a tropical wave developing off the
Yucatan next week. In addition...pattern change to Western US ridge
and eastern US trough is possible by next week.

Kovacik

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Convection across north GA will continue this evening, but slowly
dissipate after sunset. Skies and vsbys should remain VFR through
this evening, then MVFR vsbys with fog in the favored areas.
Expect some sct015-035 development late tonight and early Thursday
morning but conditions should remain VFR during the day Thursday.
Convection will initiate toward 18Z and continue through the
afternoon. Winds will remain light and westerly through the
forecast.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on timing of convection this evening and Thursday
afternoon.
Medium on clouds late tonight.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  70  89 /  60  40  30  60
Atlanta         72  88  72  87 /  40  40  40  60
Blairsville     65  83  66  84 /  60  50  40  60
Cartersville    70  89  69  87 /  50  50  40  50
Columbus        72  89  73  89 /  30  40  30  70
Gainesville     70  87  70  87 /  60  40  40  60
Macon           70  91  72  89 /  20  40  30  70
Rome            70  89  69  89 /  50  50  40  50
Peachtree City  67  88  70  87 /  20  40  30  60
Vidalia         73  92  73  90 /  30  40  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
537 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
537 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia today and tonight. A few of the storms could become
strong with the primary threats being gusty winds, frequent
lightning and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area
Thursday. A few of the storms may become severe with the potential
to produce damaging wind gusts...hail...lightning...and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to be possible Friday through
Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
738 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ013-014-021-150015-
Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Pickens GA-
738 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON...
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND EASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

At 738 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Marblehill, or near
Jasper. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jasper, Dawsonville, Ball Ground, Nelson, Lake Tamarack, Hollis
Lathem Reservoir, Marblehill, Tate, Reavis Mountain, McKee, Juno and
Fausett Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3446 8409 3433 8424 3433 8426 3431 8426
      3426 8432 3443 8446 3457 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 312DEG 4KT 3446 8433

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ021-150015-
Cherokee GA-
751 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM EDT...

At 751 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Canton...moving
southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Canton, Woodstock, Holly Springs, Buffington, Free Home, Little River
Landing, Hickory Flat, Lebanon, Union Hill, Holbrook, Lathemtown and
Bridgemill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3423 8426 3419 8429 3419 8433 3416 8436
      3413 8436 3412 8439 3411 8440 3411 8442
      3407 8442 3408 8451 3418 8464 3433 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 304DEG 5KT 3422 8451

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
756 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ020-031-150030-
Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
756 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BARTOW AND NORTHERN
PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 756 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Stilesboro, or 9 miles
southwest of Cartersville. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Dallas, Emerson, Braswell, Burnt Hickory Ridge and
Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3408 8493 3414 8490 3412 8475 3392 8485
      3399 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 291DEG 4KT 3406 8490

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
802 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ033-150030-
North Fulton GA-
802 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH FULTON COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 801 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered 3 miles north of
downtown Atlanta. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, East Point, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta, Midtown, West End,
Virginia Highland, Sweet Auburn, Turner Field, Piedmont Park,
Bankhead, Cascade Heights, Lakewood Park, Bolton, Atlantic Station,
Little Five Points and Vinings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3379 8452 3383 8447 3383 8446 3385 8446
      3387 8445 3384 8435 3367 8435 3366 8437
      3374 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 316DEG 3KT 3377 8436

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
812 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ031-032-150045-
Cobb GA-Paulding GA-
812 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COBB AND EASTERN
PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 811 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered 2 miles north of
New Hope, or 5 miles northeast of Dallas. Another strong storm
was located near Kennesaw. These storms were drifting south.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Marietta, Dallas, Smyrna, Powder Springs, Austell, Hiram, Fair Oaks,
Lithia Springs, Lost Mountain Park, Vinings, Jim R Miller Park, Six
Flags Over Georgia, Cross Roads, Due West, Dobbins Air Reserve Base,
New Hope and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3403 8479 3390 8444 3389 8444 3378 8453
      3375 8457 3375 8458 3380 8462 3381 8472
      3388 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 301DEG 1KT 3399 8478

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
846 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

GAZ032-033-044-150115-
North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-South Fulton GA-
846 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...SOUTHEASTERN COBB
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 845 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was centered near I-285 over
the Chattahoochee River, or 8 miles northwest of Atlanta...moving
southwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Smyrna, Six Flags Over Georgia, Cascade Heights, Bolton,
Sandtown, Bankhead and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3384 8454 3383 8440 3370 8446 3370 8457
      3374 8458 3375 8458 3376 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 039DEG 8KT 3380 8449

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH