Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated to include the mention of Tornado Watch
#8, which is in effect for the Hill Country and portions of the I-35
corridor until midnight. In addition, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect for the Rio Grande plains and Edwards plateau until
10 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
Concerns continue to be centered on the chance for showers and
thunderstorms this evening and overnight. We will continue to mention
a TEMPO group at DRT through 04Z as storms continue to develop near
and to the west of the terminal. After 04Z, shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to move east of the terminal. Farther east
across the I-35 corridor, isolated showers will continue this evening
and we will mention VCSH. Early Monday morning, we still expect a
line of convection to move in from the west between 08-11Z along
I-35 and will mention TEMPO groups at our sites. Once the line passes
east of the terminals, we expect some lingering showers through mid-
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Strong to severe convection is about to enter the western boundary of
our forecast area, northwest of Del Rio. This convection is being
generated by a strong shortwave trough, unstable Gulf air, and a
slowly northward moving warm front. High resolution mesoscale models
have been consistent in depicting a thin MCS with embedded supercell
structures. The Texas Tech and NSSL WRFs have verified best so far
with timing and linear mode, with recent HRRR runs showing a more
broken line of supercells. Overall, prior forecasts are on track and
we expect the line to sweep across the area, generally along and
north of U.S. 90. The line should weaken with time, and reach the
I-35 corridor around 05-06Z. While one or two brief tornadoes are
possible, the main severe threats will be large hail and damaging
winds. Rainfall will average 1/2 to 1 inch, although some locations
in the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Metro Austin could receive
up to 2-3 inches by daybreak Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will
linger on the coastal plains Monday, but rainfall amounts should be
1/4 inch or less.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Highly amplified and progressive flow will continue across the CONUS
through the next 7-10 days. This will bring a progression of fairly
sharp shortwave troughs through a general longwave trough over the
Plains. The net result for our area will be a cold front bringing
colder conditions Wednesday and Thursday, then back to above normal
temperatures Friday through Sunday before another cold front. PoPs
will be in the forecast through Friday, although rainfall should be
light. Just beyond this forecast period is another strong front and
the potential for strong convection, then a colder, drier period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  71  51  57  49 /  80  40  30  60  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  71  52  58  49 /  80  40  30  60  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     62  72  54  58  51 /  70  40  40  60  50
Burnet Muni Airport            55  69  46  55  46 /  90  10  20  50  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           50  72  51  60  50 /  60   0  -   40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  69  48  56  47 /  90  30  30  50  50
Hondo Muni Airport             60  75  55  60  51 /  70  10  20  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  72  53  59  50 /  70  40  40  60  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  72  57  61  53 /  70  60  50  50  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  74  55  60  52 /  70  20  30  60  50
Stinson Muni Airport           62  74  57  61  53 /  70  20  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
458 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-161100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
458 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
911 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             10 SW CARTA VALLEY      29.72N 100.82W
01/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   OTHER FEDERAL

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY BORDER PATROL
            AGENTS ONE MILE SOUTH OF THE 277 AND 377 HIGHWAY
            INTERSECTION

0527 PM     HAIL             CARTA VALLEY            29.80N 100.68W
01/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       EDWARDS            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER TO SLIGHTLY LARGER SIZE HAILSTONES OBSERVED

0530 PM     HAIL             4 E CARTA VALLEY        29.79N 100.62W
01/15/2017  M1.50 INCH       EDWARDS            TX   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER TO PING PONG SIZE HAIL COVERING THE ROAD ON
            HIGHWAY 377 NEAR FM2523

0545 PM     HAIL             16 N KICKAPOO CAVERN ST 29.84N 100.41W
01/15/2017  E2.50 INCH       EDWARDS            TX   COCORAHS

            TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL 17 MILES SW OF ROCKSPRINGS

0556 PM     HAIL             9 NNE KICKAPOO CAVERN S 29.73N 100.41W
01/15/2017  E2.50 INCH       EDWARDS            TX   STORM CHASER

0633 PM     HAIL             12 ENE ROCKSPRINGS      30.08N 100.03W
01/15/2017  E0.25 INCH       EDWARDS            TX   COCORAHS

0640 PM     HAIL             4 WSW TUFF              29.76N  99.83W
01/15/2017  E0.70 INCH       REAL               TX   STORM CHASER

            DIME SIZE HAIL JUST WEST OF LEAKEY

0646 PM     HAIL             7 NE CAMP WOOD          29.74N  99.92W
01/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       REAL               TX   COCORAHS

0655 PM     HAIL             5 N LEAKEY              29.80N  99.76W
01/15/2017  E2.00 INCH       REAL               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0658 PM     HAIL             6 N LEAKEY              29.81N  99.76W
01/15/2017  E3.00 INCH       REAL               TX   PUBLIC

0720 PM     HAIL             VANDERPOOL              29.74N  99.55W
01/15/2017  E1.75 INCH       BANDERA            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0725 PM     HAIL             4 SW BRACKETTVILLE      29.28N 100.45W
01/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       KINNEY             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

0745 PM     HAIL             6 E BRACKETTVILLE       29.32N 100.31W
01/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       KINNEY             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL EAST OF BRACKETTVILLE MAINLY ON THE
            SOUTH SIDE OF HIGHWAY 90

0752 PM     HAIL             3 N MEDINA              29.84N  99.25W
01/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       BANDERA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL OBSERVED

0758 PM     HAIL             MEDINA                  29.80N  99.25W
01/15/2017  M2.75 INCH       BANDERA            TX   PUBLIC

            PHOTO SHOWS BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEXT TO A REAL BASEBALL

0800 PM     HAIL             MEDINA                  29.80N  99.25W
01/15/2017  E1.75 INCH       BANDERA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0803 PM     HAIL             1 S MEDINA              29.78N  99.25W
01/15/2017  E2.00 INCH       BANDERA            TX   COCORAHS

            LARGE HAIL PRODUCING CAR DENTS

0804 PM     HAIL             MEDINA                  29.80N  99.25W
01/15/2017  E2.50 INCH       BANDERA            TX   PUBLIC

            LARGE HAIL BUSTED OUT A SKY LIGHT

0808 PM     HAIL             MEDINA                  29.80N  99.25W
01/15/2017  E1.75 INCH       BANDERA            TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 PM     HAIL             4 NNW BANDERA           29.78N  99.10W
01/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       BANDERA            TX   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1700015 EWX1700016 EWX1700017 EWX1700021 EWX1700018
EWX1700019 EWX1700020 EWX1700022 EWX1700023 EWX1700033 EWX1700024
EWX1700025 EWX1700026 EWX1700027 EWX1700034 EWX1700028 EWX1700030
EWX1700032 EWX1700029 EWX1700031

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
943 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             MEDINA                  29.80N  99.25W
01/15/2017  M4.00 INCH       BANDERA            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            PHOTO SHOWS A FOUR INCH DIAMETER HAILSTONE AS MEASURED
            WITH A TAILORS TAPE MEASURE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1700035

SBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
943 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

TXZ186>189-203-204-160445-
Uvalde TX-Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-Medina TX-Bandera TX-Kendall TX-
943 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEDINA...BANDERA...SOUTHEASTERN
KERR...UVALDE...SOUTH CENTRAL GILLESPIE AND WESTERN KENDALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 1045 PM CST...

At 943 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Fredericksburg to near
Blewett. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Kerrville, Uvalde, Fredericksburg, Hondo, Devine,
Castroville, Comfort, Bandera, Tarpley, Sabinal, Natalia, Camp Verde,
D'Hanis, Bandera Falls, Noonan, Quihi, Concan, Dunlay and Rocky Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CST for south
central Texas.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2913 9886 2910 10011 2917 10011 2963 9965
      2963 9960 2967 9960 3036 9890 3036 9876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 267DEG 24KT 3034 9881 2913 10001