Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated to include the mention of Tornado Watch
#8, which is in effect for the Hill Country and portions of the I-35
corridor until midnight. In addition, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
remains in effect for the Rio Grande plains and Edwards plateau until
10 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
Concerns continue to be centered on the chance for showers and
thunderstorms this evening and overnight. We will continue to mention
a TEMPO group at DRT through 04Z as storms continue to develop near
and to the west of the terminal. After 04Z, shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to move east of the terminal. Farther east
across the I-35 corridor, isolated showers will continue this evening
and we will mention VCSH. Early Monday morning, we still expect a
line of convection to move in from the west between 08-11Z along
I-35 and will mention TEMPO groups at our sites. Once the line passes
east of the terminals, we expect some lingering showers through mid-
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Strong to severe convection is about to enter the western boundary of
our forecast area, northwest of Del Rio. This convection is being
generated by a strong shortwave trough, unstable Gulf air, and a
slowly northward moving warm front. High resolution mesoscale models
have been consistent in depicting a thin MCS with embedded supercell
structures. The Texas Tech and NSSL WRFs have verified best so far
with timing and linear mode, with recent HRRR runs showing a more
broken line of supercells. Overall, prior forecasts are on track and
we expect the line to sweep across the area, generally along and
north of U.S. 90. The line should weaken with time, and reach the
I-35 corridor around 05-06Z. While one or two brief tornadoes are
possible, the main severe threats will be large hail and damaging
winds. Rainfall will average 1/2 to 1 inch, although some locations
in the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Metro Austin could receive
up to 2-3 inches by daybreak Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will
linger on the coastal plains Monday, but rainfall amounts should be
1/4 inch or less.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Highly amplified and progressive flow will continue across the CONUS
through the next 7-10 days. This will bring a progression of fairly
sharp shortwave troughs through a general longwave trough over the
Plains. The net result for our area will be a cold front bringing
colder conditions Wednesday and Thursday, then back to above normal
temperatures Friday through Sunday before another cold front. PoPs
will be in the forecast through Friday, although rainfall should be
light. Just beyond this forecast period is another strong front and
the potential for strong convection, then a colder, drier period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  71  51  57  49 /  80  40  30  60  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  71  52  58  49 /  80  40  30  60  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     62  72  54  58  51 /  70  40  40  60  50
Burnet Muni Airport            55  69  46  55  46 /  90  10  20  50  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           50  72  51  60  50 /  60   0  -   40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  69  48  56  47 /  90  30  30  50  50
Hondo Muni Airport             60  75  55  60  51 /  70  10  20  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  72  53  59  50 /  70  40  40  60  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  72  57  61  53 /  70  60  50  50  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  74  55  60  52 /  70  20  30  60  50
Stinson Muni Airport           62  74  57  61  53 /  70  20  30  50  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
458 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-161100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
458 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

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