Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected Header for Aviation AFD
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
725 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
A severe line of showers and thunderstorms with hail up to 2 inches
will move into SAT/SSF around 1330Z, so have TSRA there until 1630Z
with IFR-MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Severe wind gusts have not
been confirmed as of yet, but gusts may increase as this line matures
and daytime heating commences. Although we have not added in wind
shear or stronger gusts at the current moment, we will amend as
necessary and gusts of at least 30-40 knots seem reasonable with the
line passage. The line is not expected to arrive at AUS until closer
to 15Z and ending around 17Z, but the showers currently going on
around AUS may transition to deep thunderstorms ahead of the line.
Thus, we have included the mention of TSRA by 14Z to account for this
possibility along with the potential for the line to accelerate a
bit as a bowing segment to the west of ERV moves in the direction of
AUS. Gusts with this line at AUS may be a bit stronger closer towards
40-50 knots given another hour or so of daytime heating. A tornado
is possible with these storms, particularly any cells that develop
ahead of the line. VCTS is mentioned through 18-19Z at the I-35 TAF
sites to account for uncertainty.

Dry air moving into the midlevels should gradually end the more
severe shower and thunderstorm threat by early afternoon for the I-35
corridor. Models are trending towards not having additional showers
and thunderstorms later tonight, but there is still a low chance some
elevated storms may redevelop as the upper level disturbance passes
to our north near the OK/TX border. We will continue to monitor this,
but for now have left this out of the TAFs based on trends and are
just highlighting gusty westerly winds up to 25 knots at all sites.
DRT should become VFR later around 16Z, whereas the I-35 corridor
should become VFR by early or mid-afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to include the mention of Tornado Watch
#108, which is in effect for the Hill Country and portions of the
I-35 corridor until 1 PM today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A busy weather pattern is already underway and will continue into the
afternoon hours today. Currently, an upper level low pressure system
centered over north central Mexico can be seen on water vapor
imagery. To the east of this feature, convection continues to develop
over the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Convection
is also being enhanced by a surface low just south of Del Rio and
cold front edging into the western Hill Country.

Severe weather concerns for today include damaging winds, large hail
and tornadoes, especially across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor.
We currently have an ongoing area of severe storms across portions of
the southern Edwards plateau, Rio Grande plains and western Hill
Country. With continued warm/moist advection in the low-levels along
with increasing lift in the mid and upper levels, the active weather
will spread eastward today. In addition, we are already seeing some
surface-based development in the warm sector and expect this trend to
continue with additional daytime heating. Based on the above, we
should see a gradual increase in the severe weather threat across
south central Texas today. In addition, concerns are also increasing
for heavy rainfall across the Hill Country and portions of the I-35
corridor. We have already seen some impressive totals at Del Rio
(almost 5") today and given impressive moist air advection in the
low-levels and a very efficient rainfall setup, we have issued a
Flash Flood Watch for portions of the Rio Grande plains, southern
Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and I-35 corridor today.

We should see a decrease in the active weather from west to east by
late afternoon. Still, can't rule out some showers and storms across
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor north of San Antonio as the center
of the upper low passes across the mentioned areas.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The weather pattern for the upcoming work week will be much calmer as
southwest to westerly flow aloft prevails. Above normal high
temperatures are in store on Tuesday, followed by a weak cold front
dropping temperatures down closer to normal on Wednesday and
Thursday. A warming trend takes shape for the latter portion of the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  56  85  58  87 /  90  30   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  54  84  55  86 /  90  30   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  54  85  55  87 /  80  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  52  81  54  84 / 100  30   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  52  86  57  88 /  70   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  55  83  55  85 / 100  40   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             79  51  85  54  88 /  70  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        79  54  85  55  87 /  80  10   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  55  84  57  87 /  80  20   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  54  85  57  88 /  80  -    0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           81  54  85  56  88 /  70  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
counties: Bandera...Bastrop...Blanco...Burnet...Edwards...
Gillespie...Hays...Kendall...Kerr...Kinney...Lee...Llano...Real...
Travis...Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...LH
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
649 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031200-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
649 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

An active weather pattern is expected across all of south central
Today. Initially, the most active weather will be across the
southern Edwards Plateau as a line of storms begins to organize.
As this line of storms strengthens and moves east across the Hill
Country and I-35 corridor through midday, a combination of large
hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall can be expected.
In addition, an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. As this
line of storms approaches the I-35 corridor Sunday morning, the
threat for tornadoes will increase. In addition, rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches could bring the potential for localized flooding,
especially across those areas that had heavy rains earlier in the
week.

By early Sunday evening, the severe weather concerns should be on
the decrease as the line of storms moves east of the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are urged to report severe weather and flooding with the
storm system this weekend.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 AM     HAIL             LEAKEY                  29.72N  99.76W
04/02/2017  M2.00 INCH       REAL               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1700093

CVP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

TXZ171-172-021245-
Llano TX-Burnet TX-
655 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LLANO AND
NORTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

At 655 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lone Grove, or 9 miles northeast of Llano, moving north at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Llano, Buchanan Dam, Baby Head, Lone Grove, Stolz, Bluffton and Tow.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for south central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3078 9843 3071 9861 3087 9871 3092 9862
      3092 9842 3094 9841 3095 9845 3097 9845
      3098 9844 3101 9846 3103 9843 3103 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1155Z 166DEG 21KT 3086 9860

MO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
718 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 AM     HAIL             7 N BRACKETTVILLE       29.42N 100.41W
04/02/2017  E0.75 INCH       KINNEY             TX   PUBLIC

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
721 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 NNW DEL RIO           29.48N 100.95W
04/02/2017  M2.85 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM TODAY

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
725 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     TSTM WND DMG     INGRAM                  30.08N 99.24W
04/02/2017                   KERR               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPT REPORTS TREES BLOWN DOWN IN INGRAM

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
728 AM CDT SUN APR 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW ROCKSPRINGS       29.91N 100.32W
04/02/2017                   EDWARDS            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 674 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

CVP