Areal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms are moving through AUS and will continue for the next
hour or two. CIGs will be MVFR through the afternoon. In the San
Antonio area rain showers will move through the airports for the next
couple of hours. CIGs there will also be MVFR through the afternoon.
CIGs at Austin and San Antonio will drop to IFR overnight and improve
to MVFR late morning Wednesday.

DRT has MVFR CIGs that will increase to VFR by mid-afternoon. They
will drop again overnight to MVFR and then IFR and stay that way
through the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/

UPDATE...
The weak cold front has moved slightly farther south and is now just
inside the northern CWA. A broad convergence zone has developed
across the northeast Hill Country and is being enhanced by the tail
end of large scale forcing from the mid and upper level shortwave.
Aircraft sounding data out of AUS no longer indicates the presence of
a mid level cap, as was the case late yesterday afternoon and
overnight which helped to limited the potential for on organized
complex to push the front south. With the cap now eroded and deep
moisture pooled over the area the weak front and mid/upper level
forcing has allowed for the generation of scattered showers and
storms through the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas this
morning. These storms will drift east through the morning hours,
possibly near the Austin metro area. A few stronger storms are
possible with small hail and heavy downpours. A quick 1-2 inches is
possibly under any of the heavier storms which could lead to
localized flooding issues. At this time we will hold off on
re-issuing the Flash Flood Watch as the short-term trends suggest
the coverage of excessive rainfall to be isolated in nature.

Going into the afternoon, the front appears to become slightly more
diffuse and mid/upper level forcing begins to pull away. Coverage of
showers and storms should decrease slightly and favor southern and
eastern areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/

UPDATE...
We have let the Severe Thunderstorm and Flash Flood Watches expire
at 12z or 7 AM CDT. There may be some strong storms and locally heavy
downpours as a weakening upper level shortwave moves across South
Central Texas this morning while interacting with a stalled front and
moist and unstable airmass. The downpours may cause some minor
flooding in the small areas that received heavy rains overnight.
However, the threat for severe storms and flash flooding has ended.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/

UPDATE...
See below for the 12z aviation discussion...

AVIATION...
Currently IFR CIGs at AUS and SAT and low-end MVFR CIGs at SSF and
DRT. An isolated shower or two is possible at the Interstate 35
sites through the early afternoon. CIGs are expected to improve to
MVFR at AUS and SAT by 15z with all four TAF sites expected to
improve to VFR by Tuesday afternoon. MVFR CIGs should return by late
Tuesday evening before deteriorating further to IFR by early
Wednesday morning. Winds will generally be out of the east/southeast
at around 5 to 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
A weak cold front along a Langtry to Lampasas to Waco is only
drifting south and will stall by midday while a weakening upper
level shortwave over western Texas to the Big Bend is moving east.
These features will lift a moist airmass with PWS above 1.4 inches
and unstable airmass with CAPEs above 1000 J/KG to produce isolated
storms that could be strong to severe with locally heavy rains. Have
maintained most of the ongoing severe and flash flood watches, except
for the westernmost counties where the rains have mostly ended. The
forecast is low confidence as models have underperformed for the most
part across South Central Texas. May have to remove other counties
prior to the 12Z expiration based on radar trends. Expect 1 to 3 inch
amounts with very isolated 5 inches totals. Rains will taper off
during the remainder of this morning with only widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Zonal flow aloft and a
moist airmass will allow for only isolated showers and thunderstorms
tonight into Wednesday as the front dissipates or lifts back north.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The pattern on Wednesday will continue through this weekend into
early next week with isolated showers and thunderstorms expected.
Parts of Val Verde county may see higher coverage due better moisture
convergence with some storms possibly coming off the Serranias del
Burro of northern Mexico. The upper level trough expected Thursday
into Friday has trended further north with more recent model runs
and have lowered POPs to 20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              63  80  64  81  63 /  20  20  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  80  63  80  62 /  20  20  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  80  64  80  63 /  20  20  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            61  77  63  77  61 /  20  20  10  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  81  64  80  64 /  20  20  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  79  63  79  62 /  20  20  10  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             63  81  64  81  64 /  20  20  10  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        63  80  63  80  62 /  20  20  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  81  64  81  62 /  20  20  10  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  80  65  80  64 /  20  20  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           64  80  65  81  64 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...YB

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
155 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-120700-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
155 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Rest of tonight.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for most of South Central Texas
through 7 am. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts
to 5 inches are possible through Tuesday morning...mainly for
areas along and east of the Edwards escarpment, including the
Interstate 35 corridor. This could lead to flash flooding for
these areas.

In addition...hail up to one inch in diameter and gusty winds up
to 60 mph are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in
effect through 7 am Tuesday, but these threats are secondary to
the main flash flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected for the extended period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please submit any flooding or severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

TXZ192-111800-
Travis TX-
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM CDT...

At 1219 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mustang Ridge, or 7 miles east of Buda, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Austin Bergstrom International Airport, Mustang Ridge,
Creedmoor, Maha, Del Valle and Pilot Knob.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9755 3010 9762 3006 9768 3002 9771
      3009 9780 3023 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 212DEG 14KT 3009 9772

PLATT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             2 SSW NIEDERWALD        29.99N 97.75W
04/11/2017  E0.50 INCH       CALDWELL           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTING .5 INCH HAIL.

&&

YB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     HAIL             4 SSW SAN MARCOS        29.84N 97.97W
04/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       HAYS               TX   PUBLIC

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

YB