Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
210 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will remain plentiful across the region the next several
days. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
day. However the most significant rains will occur this evening
and tonight as a disturbance aloft tracks across the area.
Localized flooding will be possible as a result. Another round of
heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening
with activity becoming more scattered in nature by the weekend and
beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Easterly flow has become well established across the region in the
wake of last nights back door front. This has allowed for a steady
push of moisture into the area with early afternoon dewpoints at
or above 60 degrees in most spots. As a result, convection has
taken off quickly this afternoon and it looks to continue.

The KEPZ morning RAOB showed a PW value of 1.41 inches and
forecast models keep PW values elevated above 1.20" across much of the
area for the next couple of days. Meanwhile a quick glance at the
visible satellite clearly shows a well defined vort max across
northern Sonora just south of Arizona. This feature is currently
tracking towards the north but is projected by forecast models to
turn east and track directly over the Borderland later this
evening and tonight. With forecast CAPE values between 1000 and
1200 j/kg the likelihood of of thunderstorms remains high into
the overnight hours. Model QPF varies from one source to another,
but the general consensus is that some areas could easily see
total rainfall amounts of between 1 and 2 inches as scattered
storm activity this afternoon becomes more widespread with the
passage of the upper disturbance. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued areawide from 6pm this evening through 6am
Thursday morning.

Rainfall should taper off quickly as morning approaches as the
upper vort moves east. However moisture levels will remain
elevated setting the stage for another round of afternoon and
evening storms Thursday. Once again, localized flooding will be
the primary concern for Thursday afternoon and evening.

By Friday and into the weekend the upper high will be regaining
strength over the area, resulting in mainly isolated lowland and
scattered mountain storm activity. Then into next week we will see
the upper flow shift more northerly as we get caught in between
the upper high shifting to our northwest and circulation around
tropical system "Harvey" across east Texas. At this time it
appears that there will still be enough moisture available for a
few storms next week as well, with some of them possibly on the
strong side.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/00Z-25/00Z...
Abundant subtropical moisture on the increase will combine with a
disturbance aloft Wednesday night along with a weak backdoor cold
front boundary in the CWA to generate numerous showers and
thunders thru the fcst pd with max coverage and intensity around
03Z-15Z. General conds: sct-bkn050 sct-bkn100 bkn200-250 with
winds ne-se10kts becoming nw10kts aft 15z. Areas vrbl winds
25G35kts 1-3 sm in TSRA +TSRA BR BKN010 BKN030 OVC060 esp 03Z-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Subtropical moisture is returning to southern New Mexico and Far
West Texas channeled in from the south. A weak backdoor front has
pushed in from the east allowing the moisture to focus on its
boundary. The result will be a marked increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in
some areas. Areal coverage and intensity will be at its greatest
tonight and into Thursday morning, as an upper trough passes through
the area. Again, heavy rain and flash flooding are possible.
Thunderstorms will decrease in coverage later Thursday and remain
isolated over lowland zones and scattered over mountain zones
through the weekend into the beginning of next week. Min RHs will
remain above 30 percent through most of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 69  87  69  90 /  60  40  30  20
Sierra Blanca           65  84  68  87 /  40  40  30  20
Las Cruces              65  84  66  88 /  60  40  30  20
Alamogordo              64  84  66  86 /  70  50  40  20
Cloudcroft              50  65  50  65 /  70  60  40  40
Truth or Consequences   67  85  68  88 /  60  40  30  10
Silver City             59  81  60  83 /  60  40  40  30
Deming                  65  84  66  88 /  60  40  30  20
Lordsburg               64  85  65  88 /  60  40  30  20
West El Paso Metro      66  86  68  90 /  60  40  30  20
Dell City               66  86  68  90 /  40  40  40  30
Fort Hancock            70  88  71  91 /  60  40  30  20
Loma Linda              63  82  64  84 /  60  40  30  20
Fabens                  68  88  70  91 /  60  40  30  20
Santa Teresa            66  85  68  89 /  60  40  30  20
White Sands HQ          67  84  67  87 /  60  40  30  20
Jornada Range           64  85  65  88 /  60  40  30  20
Hatch                   65  85  66  89 /  60  40  30  10
Columbus                66  85  68  88 /  60  40  30  20
Orogrande               66  85  68  88 /  60  40  30  20
Mayhill                 55  74  55  75 /  70  60  40  40
Mescalero               56  75  56  76 /  70  60  40  40
Timberon                54  73  53  73 /  70  60  40  40
Winston                 54  80  55  81 /  60  50  50  30
Hillsboro               62  84  62  86 /  70  50  30  30
Spaceport               64  84  66  87 /  60  40  30  20
Lake Roberts            54  80  53  83 /  70  50  40  30
Hurley                  59  82  59  84 /  60  40  30  20
Cliff                   57  85  59  88 /  60  40  40  30
Mule Creek              60  83  62  86 /  60  40  30  20
Faywood                 60  84  59  86 /  60  40  30  20
Animas                  65  85  65  89 /  60  40  30  20
Hachita                 64  84  64  88 /  60  40  30  20
Antelope Wells          65  84  66  88 /  60  40  30  20
Cloverdale              63  83  64  85 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight for NMZ401>417.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight for TXZ418>424.

&&

27-Laney/20-Novlan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1049 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-241700-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1049 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A very moist atmosphere will combine with a passing disturbance to
generate widespread rain and thunderstorms this evening and
overnight across most of the region. The possibility of heavy
rainfall exists with some areas receiving well over an inch of
rainfall over the next 24 hours. This could result in areas of
flooding where the heaviest rainfall occurs. In addition, storms
will be capable of producing small hail and strong winds later
this afternoon and through the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Rain chances will continue across the area, with Thursday being
the most active day. A heavy rain threat will continue Thursday
with rain and storm coverage becoming more scattered over the
weekend and early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
by contacting your El Paso area National Weather Service office...or
by sending reports via the web at http://weather.gov/epz.

Laney

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
1230 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2017

NMZ414>417-231915-
Otero Mesa NM-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
1230 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
MDT...

At 1229 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sacramento, or 12 miles southeast of Cloudcroft, moving southwest at
15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sacramento, Weed, Sunspot and Bluff Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 10559 3281 10544 3254 10557 3282 10588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 044DEG 14KT 3282 10559

CRESPO

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
215 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2017

TXZ422>424-232100-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands TX-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties TX-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County TX-
215 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HUDSPETH COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM MDT...

At 215 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Fort Quitman, or 11 miles west of Sierra Blanca,
moving southwest at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Quitman and Quitman Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 10555 3100 10556 3102 10557 3102 10558
      3105 10558 3108 10560 3110 10562 3110 10564
      3112 10565 3113 10570 3123 10552 3114 10541
      3098 10553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 052DEG 17KT 3114 10555

CRESPO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
232 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2017

TXZ422-424-232115-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands TX-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County TX-
232 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HUDSPETH COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 231 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Indian Hot Springs, or 16 miles south of Sierra
Blanca, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Box.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 10539 3089 10540 3089 10541 3090 10542
      3094 10549 3097 10550 3096 10551 3099 10553
      3099 10555 3100 10556 3106 10536 3096 10527
      3085 10538 3085 10540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 062DEG 12KT 3095 10544

CRESPO