Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
408 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The Borderland will see a significant increase in tropical
moisture today, with increasing coverage of thunderstorms
throughout the day. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible,
especially in the evening hours. The thunderstorms will continue
Thursday but begin to taper off. High pressure aloft will
eventually move to the Great Basin Friday into the weekend,
creating northerly flow. This flow will not be as moist but
isolated thunderstorms will continue and a few could become
strong.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A wet and stormy period still looks to be on target for today and
Thursday. An upper high persists over northern Mexico, while a
persistent upper low remains just offshore of California. Strong
south/southwest flow between these two features continues to
stream tropical moisture up over western New Mexico and eastern
Arizona this morning. TPW product shows current PWs around 1.2
inches southern CWA to 1.0 inch in the north. These should
increase today as PWs just south of the CWA reach 1.5 inches.
Model PWs reach this level by later this afternoon into this
evening. Instability will also increase with MUCAPES of 800-2000
J/kg over most of the area this afternoon. Shear environment shows
decent directional but very little speed shear. Both GFS/NAM show
surface convergence zone out vicinity of the Continental Divide
late this afternoon. All these ingredients expected to lead to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Storms by late afternoon and
overnight could produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Decided
to hold off on Flash Flood Watch for now. With best period for
heavy rain expected tonight, day shift can look at this morning's
model runs and decide on any watches.

Both NAM/GFS show vort center, possibly an MCV left over from last
night's Sierra Madre convection, slowly moving up to SE Arizona
this afternoon and then drifting east across the CWA tonight as a
trough. This should help initiate the heaviest rains into Thursday
morning. Rainfall and thunderstorm coverage should diminish last
half of Thursday as the trough moves east of the area.

Friday through the weekend...upper high begins to rebuild behind
exiting trough, covering New Mexico and then drifting northwest
over the Great Basin Sat/Sun. In concert with developing tropical
feature over east Texas, northerly flow will develop over our
area. Thunderstorm coverage should be more isolated/scattered, and
deep moisture will have moved east, but this flow pattern can
still produce some strong/severe storms. Flash flood potential
should remain low through this period.

Monday and Tuesday...basic pattern remains unchanged. GFS shows weak
back door front moving westward through the CWA Monday evening.
This could produce additional thunderstorms for that period.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z...
High pressure aloft centered over the International border will
maintain ISOLD-SCT MTN TSRAGS/WND VRB25G45KT/LCL VIS 1-3 SM/CIGS
030-050 AGL aft 17Z. Conditions will spread to the lowlands after
21Z. Thunderstorms becoming more widespread aft 00Z all areas with
heavy rain and local flooding possible.

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure aloft centered over northern Mexico will continue to
push tropical moisture over the fire zones today, resulting in
scattered thunderstorms today. Moisture maximizes tonight and
Thursday morning, and with upper trough passing east through the
area, heavy rain and flash flooding are possible. Thunderstorms
will decrease in coverage later Thursday and remain isolated over
lowland zones and scattered over mountain zones through the
weekend into the beginning of next week. Min RHs will remain above
30 percent through most of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 92  68  87  67 /  20  60  40  30
Sierra Blanca           88  63  84  63 /  20  40  40  30
Las Cruces              91  63  85  63 /  20  60  40  30
Alamogordo              89  63  84  62 /  40  70  50  40
Cloudcroft              69  49  65  48 /  50  70  60  40
Truth or Consequences   90  63  84  62 /  30  60  40  30
Silver City             86  57  81  56 /  40  60  40  40
Deming                  91  62  85  62 /  20  60  40  30
Lordsburg               91  62  84  63 /  30  60  40  30
West El Paso Metro      92  67  86  66 /  20  60  40  30
Dell City               90  65  87  65 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Hancock            92  68  88  67 /  20  60  40  30
Loma Linda              88  62  84  60 /  20  60  40  30
Fabens                  93  67  88  66 /  20  60  40  30
Santa Teresa            92  65  86  65 /  20  60  40  30
White Sands HQ          90  64  84  64 /  20  60  40  30
Jornada Range           91  63  84  62 /  20  60  40  30
Hatch                   93  64  85  63 /  30  60  40  30
Columbus                91  64  85  64 /  20  60  40  30
Orogrande               90  65  84  64 /  30  60  40  30
Mayhill                 77  53  74  52 /  50  70  60  40
Mescalero               78  53  74  52 /  50  70  60  40
Timberon                77  52  73  51 /  50  70  60  40
Winston                 84  54  81  52 /  60  60  50  50
Hillsboro               88  59  84  58 /  50  70  50  30
Spaceport               90  63  83  61 /  30  60  40  30
Lake Roberts            85  52  81  51 /  40  70  50  40
Hurley                  87  58  83  56 /  40  60  40  30
Cliff                   89  58  82  57 /  40  60  40  40
Mule Creek              89  59  83  58 /  40  60  40  30
Faywood                 87  58  84  57 /  40  60  40  30
Animas                  91  62  84  62 /  30  60  40  30
Hachita                 90  61  84  61 /  30  60  40  30
Antelope Wells          90  61  84  61 /  30  60  40  30
Cloverdale              87  60  84  59 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

17 Hefner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1049 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-241700-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1049 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A very moist atmosphere will combine with a passing disturbance to
generate widespread rain and thunderstorms this evening and
overnight across most of the region. The possibility of heavy
rainfall exists with some areas receiving well over an inch of
rainfall over the next 24 hours. This could result in areas of
flooding where the heaviest rainfall occurs. In addition, storms
will be capable of producing small hail and strong winds later
this afternoon and through the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Rain chances will continue across the area, with Thursday being
the most active day. A heavy rain threat will continue Thursday
with rain and storm coverage becoming more scattered over the
weekend and early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
by contacting your El Paso area National Weather Service office...or
by sending reports via the web at http://weather.gov/epz.

Laney

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
1230 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2017

NMZ414>417-231915-
Otero Mesa NM-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet NM-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet NM-
1230 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
MDT...

At 1229 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sacramento, or 12 miles southeast of Cloudcroft, moving southwest at
15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sacramento, Weed, Sunspot and Bluff Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 10559 3281 10544 3254 10557 3282 10588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 044DEG 14KT 3282 10559

CRESPO