Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
512 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 225 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

A rather active 24 hour period is in store with multiple weather
hazards possible. The first hazard will reside with the ongoing Wind
Advisory in effect until 6 pm this evening. Strong southwesterly
winds in excess of 30 mph will continue to gust up to 45 mph through
the remainder of the afternoon and early evening ahead of a strong
cold front.

The frontal boundary will be the triggering mechanism for the next
weather hazard in the form of severe weather potential this evening.
Taking a look at the pattern aloft, water vapor imagery depicts a
negatively tilted upper-level trough now entering the Northern
Plains. A surface low underneath the trough axis will continue to
strengthen and push northeastward into southern Manitoba after
sunset. This feature will maintain existing warm air advection and
moisture return ahead of the southern extent of the boundary. As the
parent storm system rapidly matures by the late afternoon, the
associated cold front will quickly push through northwestern
Missouri just before sunset and will be the focus for a brief period
of convection through the early evening hours.

Light to moderate rain showers were noted parallel to a vort lobe
across central to northeastern Missouri through the late morning and
early afternoon. Extensive low level stratus within the warm sector
has created a capping inversion across the entire forecast area.
Thus this activity and any subsequent activity will be limited with
regard to deepening updraft potential until synoptic scale lifting
occurs along the frontal boundary. Once this occurs, MUCAPE values
between 1000 to 1500 J/kg will combine with ample deep layer shear
to sustain updrafts along the frontal boundary. With LCL heights
near 500 m and sufficient low level wind shear to generate 0 to 1 km
helicity values of 300 to 400 m2/s2, a few tornadoes, perhaps
strong, are possible within embedded supercells near the boundary.
Aside from the tornadic potential, large hail and damaging winds are
also in play as the event unfolds. Large hail potential is likely
within rotating updrafts, particularly in light of WBZ heights below
10 kft. Finally damaging winds are also possible as the convection
becomes more linear with time as the frontal boundary approaches the
I-35 corridor. With 40+ mph wind gusts already in place upon the
arrival of the front, severe winds will not be difficult to
materialize. The progressive nature of the system with PWAT values
near 1 inch will limit the overall flash flood risk, and rainfall
totals should generally remain below 1 inch through the duration of
the event.

The final hazard resides with rapidly decreasing dewpoints and
subsequent fire weather danger behind the cold front. Upstream obs
depict dewpoint values in the upper teens and this trend is expected
to overtake the forecast area beginning late tonight through much of
Tuesday. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for northwest Missouri
through 8 pm today. Fire weather concerns will increase further
tomorrow afternoon despite chances for precipitation this evening.
Have thus upgraded the existing Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning for Tuesday afternoon. Also have issued a Fire Weather Watch
for the remaining CWA, though some uncertainty remains with the
extent of dewpoint values that far east. See Fire Weather Discussion
for details.

Above normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the
work week with a return of precip chances as early as Thursday.
Better chances for widespread precipitation will then arrive by
Saturday as a clipper system pushes through the area through the
early weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 502 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

Gusty southwesterly winds, peaking near 45 mph, will remain in
place ahead of a cold front which will push through the terminals
early in the forecast period. Thunderstorms are expected along the
frontal boundary with the primary hazard being isolated strong
winds. Storms will be brief, generally only lasting an hour or
two. While gusts will drop off behind the front, increased winds
will persist overnight underneath clearing sky conditions. Wind
gusts near 30 kts will return to the area Tuesday morning out of
the WSW.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 225 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

A cold front will push through northwest Missouri Monday evening
and will bring a dry air mass into the forecast area behind the
boundary. This will decrease dewpoint values into the upper teens
to lower 20s. Combined with gusty winds, up to 40 mph by Tuesday
afternoon, critical fire weather conditions will remain in place
until Tuesday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-102.

MO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MOZ001-002-
     004-011>014-020>023-028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ001-002-011-
     012-020.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for MOZ003-005>008-015>017-024-025-032-033-040-
     046.

&&

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh
Fire Weather...Welsh

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
439 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
439 AM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 A line of scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop across
 northwest MO and far northeast KS late this afternoon, and will
 increase in coverage and intensity as the line progresses southeast
 this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are possible across the
 outlook area, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
 especially along and southeast of Interstate 35.

 Strong winds will continue throughout the day, but will gust even
 higher after sunrise, reaching 45 to perhaps even 50 mph during the
 afternoon. Gusty winds are also expected behind the cold front this
 evening, and will combine with rapidly falling humidity to raise the
 wildfire danger across far northeast KS and northwest MO after the
 front passes.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Very dry air and strong winds are expected throughout the region
 Tuesday, creating the very high wildfire concerns throughout the
 daylight hours.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
744 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW EDGERTON          38.80N 95.02W
03/06/2017                   JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AT 183RD JUST WEST OF
            EDGERTON RD. REPORTED FROM A SPOTTER. .

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
806 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             MUNCIE                  39.09N 94.75W
03/06/2017  E0.88 INCH       WYANDOTTE          KS   PUBLIC

            .

&&

STG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
811 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             2 NNE RAYTOWN           39.03N 94.46W
03/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   PUBLIC

            .

&&

STG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
813 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             3 W SUGAR CREEK         39.11N 94.50W
03/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   PUBLIC

            .

&&

STG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
814 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             1 N RANDOLPH            39.17N 94.49W
03/06/2017  E0.50 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            .

&&

STG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
823 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             LATHROP                 39.55N 94.33W
03/06/2017  E0.88 INCH       CLINTON            MO   PUBLIC

            .

&&

STG